Lucas Jones
It’s no surprise that Jaime Munguia is a significant underdog heading into the Saturday’s showdown with undisputed super middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. The veteran spent year after year establishing himself as one of the greatest boxers of the modern era, while Munguia compiled an undefeated 43-0 record against a less impressive roster of fighters.
Munguia wasn’t seen as the biggest threat to Alvarez at 168 pounds, nor the second biggest threat, but he’s still the man who got the call. Now it’s up to Munguia to make the most of the opportunity he was given when Alvarez chose him for his annual Cinco De Mayo weekend event.
The best thing about the fighting game is that everything can turn into a single punch. But does Munguia have more than a chance against Alvarez? Let’s take a look at some of the keys to Munguia pulling off a huge upset on Saturday night in Las Vegas.
Enjoy an aged Canelo
Alvarez put in a vintage performance in his most recent match, dominating Jermell Charlo for 12 rounds to once again successfully defend his undisputed champion status. There were big concerns for Alvarez before that fight and they’re worth mentioning again, even if he appears to have put many of those concerns to rest with his performance against Charlo.
Starting around his May 2021 fight with Billy Joe Saunders, Alvarez seemed to have slowed down a bit. Saunders, Caleb Plant, Dmitry Bivol, Gennady Golovkin and John Ryder had more success landing clean punches on Alvarez than expected. Alvarez’s head movement wasn’t as good as it once was and he wasn’t as effective at landing shots with his gloves.
There are also questions about Alvarez’s power. Alvarez has gone four fights in a row without scoring a stoppage, something that hasn’t happened since Alvarez was a teenager in 2008. He was unable to stop Ryder, who was seen as an easy opponent. He couldn’t stop an older, faded version of Golovkin. He was unable to stop Charlo, who moved up two weight classes for the fight.
Alvarez may only be 33 years old, but 64 professional fights have put a lot of miles on his body. If Alvarez’s skills are fading, Munguia should take every advantage he can get and exploit it.
Pressure, pressure, pressure
Munguia is a good fighter when he works with the front foot and puts pressure on his opponent. Some of the fights he had in his 2023 Fight of the Year contender with Sergiy Derevyanchenko came from Derevyanchenko taking on the pressure fighter role and pushing Munguia around the ring.
Munguia cannot allow Alvarez to be the man who forces action. If Munguia is on the back foot, he doesn’t have the pure boxing skills to destroy Alvarez like what Bivol was able to do when he faced Canelo.
The pressure doesn’t just play into Munguia’s strengths, but also Alvarez’s more recent weaknesses. If Munguia maintains a high punch production and forces the issue offensively, he could try to break through Alvarez’s defense. Alvarez has also lost momentum in the later rounds in some recent fights. If Munguia can force Alvarez to work constantly, he could empty the champion’s gas tank and take over the fight in the second half.
It’s important that Munguia doesn’t delay getting started, as he often does, because allowing Alvarez to get to work and build an early lead on the scoreboard will make an already difficult task even more difficult.
Manage remotely
Although being a pressure fighter is essential for Munguia, it is important that he does so while managing distance. Munguia is the tallest fighter and has the greatest reach. Allowing Alvarez to work inside would allow Alvarez to dig into the body, which is one of Alvarez’s best offensive skills when he is at the top of his game.
Munguia needs to keep Alvarez on the receiving end of his strikes and on the back foot. The closer Alvarez can get within striking range, the more damage he can do.
This is easier said than done. Alvarez is rarely the tallest man in a fight and that hasn’t stopped him from being an elite among elites. Even so, Munguia has the range and youth to score a comeback if Alvarez doesn’t give his best.
