Brandon Brown
On Friday afternoon, the Pittsburgh Pirates demoted catcher Henry Davis to the minors to create space on the active roster for veteran outfielder Yasmani Grandal. Davis, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft, has hit just .162/.280/.206 (44 OPS+) in 23 contests. These struggles, plus the rise of Joey Bart, left the Pirates with little choice in the matter.
Davis, who turns 25 in September, has failed to establish himself in the majors on separate occasions. Last year, he posted a 79 OPS+ in 62 games following a mid-June promotion. While Davis primarily played right field in 2023, the Pirates tasked him with rebounding after losing Endy Rodríguez that year to offseason shoulder surgery. Unfortunately, using the tools of ignorance didn’t brighten Davis’ bat.
Whenever a recent No. 1 overall pick struggles like this at the big league level, it’s fair to think about the past and the future — does a team regret its selection and is there still hope for a turnaround? With that in mind, here are four things worth knowing about Davis and his struggles, as well as Pittsburgh’s draft regrets.
1. Davis was a reasonable and strategic No. 1 pick
Let’s be clear: Davis was a defensible selection at the time based on his merits as a prospect. He was coming off a brilliant season at Louisville that saw him look for strength while making a lot of contact and improving the defense. We here at CBS Sports ranked him as the fourth best player in the class that year, writing the following:
“Don’t sleep on the fact that Davis is a dark horse to make the top five,” was how his preseason capsule began. Five months later, he is a legitimate candidate to go first overall, depending on his financial demand. Davis made the jump by hitting .370/.482/.663 this season with 15 home runs and seven more RBIs than strikeouts. Demand for two-way safeguards always outstrips supply, which is why Davis’ advantage is intriguing. He combines a low whiff rate with a high average exit velocity at the plate, and he is at least an adequate defender (with a strong arm) behind it. Some evaluators are concerned that his power-based swing won’t work as well against advanced pitches. Fair enough, but he’s the most talented college bat in a class that doesn’t have many of them, and it’s hard to imagine him falling much further than No. 5.
With that established, there was a strategic element to Davis’s choice. He demanded only the fifth-largest signing bonus of the round, allowing the Pirates to hand out seven-figure bonuses to three other players: pitchers Bubba Chandler and Anthony Solometo and outfielder Lonnie White. To date, Chandler and Solometo remain two of the top prospects in Pittsburgh’s system, while White has dealt with injuries.
Even if Davis doesn’t perform as desired – and more specifically about him in a few paragraphs – the Pirates could walk away with some solid players from that group.
2. Other key recruits also had problems
You may wonder: Would it be better for the Pirates to sign one of the players mentioned above who signed for more money?
Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter (No. 2, Rangers) signed for the most money at $7.92 million. Prep righty Jackson Jobe (No. 3, Tigers) was second at $6.9 million, and prep shortstops Jordan Lawlar (No. 6, Diamondbacks) and Marcelo Mayer (No. 4, Red Sox) were over the cap of US$6.6 million. How did these players perform?
Let’s address them, in this order, in the form of bullets:
- Leiter reached the championships for the first time at the start of this season. He has struggled with consistency (both in his location and his secondary pitches) throughout his professional career. There’s no reason for the Rangers to give up the ghost just yet as he becomes a starter, but we’re far enough along now that it’s worth contemplating whether his future will come in a relief role.
- Jobe overcame a difficult introduction to professional football to solidify himself as one of the best pitchers in the minors. He’s struck out 35% of the batters he’s faced in his first five starts this season at Double-A. Unfortunately, Jobe left his most recent debut due to an apparent leg injury.
- Lawlar, like Davis, struggled last year in his first foray into the big leagues. He has yet to receive a second try because of a torn tendon in his finger that required surgery just before Opening Day. His defense should allow him to have a long career, even if he never lives up to the Bobby Witt Jr. comparisons that were given to him during his amateur days.
- We consider Mayer the best prospect in the class thanks to his instinctive defense and above-average left-handed bat. His stock has dropped since then, but he could make his big league debut later this year if he keeps hitting.
It’s probably safe to say that Jobe offers the biggest advantage of the group at this stage. There are some tantalizing potential right-tail results on the table for him if he can stay strong and healthy. Granted, he also offered the highest downside risk given the attrition rates faced by right-handed prepsters, and the Pirates would have been scrutinized for making this selection given the other top prospects in the class.
As for Leiter, Lawlar and Mayer – they should still have big league futures, though perhaps not as bright as we hoped on draft night. Could the same be said of Davis?
3. Explaining Davis’ struggles
We noted in the introduction that Davis’ offensive production was horrible. It’s not difficult to understand why. Davis had hit or appeared in 33 of his 83 trips to base, or 39.8%. You get what amounts to an automatic elimination in four out of every 10 plate appearances and you’re going to have a hard time crunching numbers.
To Davis’ credit, he continued to control the strike zone. To his credit, there was everything else. He missed more than 35% of his swings, and when he got it right, his average exit velocity was just in the 17th percentile. This simply won’t work for someone whose game is based on pulling the ball to do damage.
The Pirates also seem to be aware of this reality.
“The most important thing is that, offensively, there are some adjustments that need to be made.” coach Derek Shelton told reporters on Friday. “I think there are some adjustments that the major league game will show him that need to be made. It’s one of those things with guys coming off the injured list, it’s a chance for Henry to catch his breath a little bit. “
None of this means Davis is cooked. Many good players started their careers with a few hundred bad trips to the plate. Everyone forgets now, but Adley Rutschman boasted a .684 OPS in his first 176 appearances; Bobby Witt Jr. was between .699 and .223; Kyle Tucker was between .633 and .228; and so on. These are just three examples of good prospects who started slow before finding their way.
There’s no guarantee Davis will follow suit — many players start poorly and never recover, either — but you also shouldn’t rule out the possibility of him making adjustments that work.
4. Part of a larger pirate trend
Whatever you think of Davis, he could become part of a troubling trend of premium picks wasted by the Pirates organization.
Since drafting Gerrit Cole No. 1 overall in 2011, the Pirates have made 21 selections in the first round or supplemental round. Two of them recorded more than five wins above replacement: outfielder Austin Meadows (who did his best work with the Tampa Bay Rays) and third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes.
For comparison, the Los Angeles Dodgers produced four first-round or supplemental-round selections with five or more Wins Above Replacement during that span — and they did so without picking higher than 18th. (Those players: Corey Seager, Walker Buehler, Will Smith and Gavin Lux.)
It’s fair to write that the Pirates need a much better draft if they want to build a consistent winner. Owner Bob Nutting’s self-imposed spending restrictions practically require the draft to be approved – especially picks made in the early stages.
If there is good news for the Pirates, they should see their draft record improve by default sooner rather than later. That’s because Paul Skenes, the first pick in last summer’s draft, is expected to reach the majors in the coming weeks.
