Brandon Brown
The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins agreed to the first major trade of the regular season on Friday night, sending two-time All-Star second baseman Luis Arraez to the West Coast in exchange for four players from minor league. (You can read our full review at clicking here.) Arguably the most notable part of the switch was that it happened in early May, more than two months before Hug Watch would normally go into effect.
In some ways, the Marlins were the perfect candidates to serve as first movers. They have a new office, led by former Tampa Bay Rays executive Peter Bendix. Bendix barely touched the roster during the winter. It was as if Bendix wanted the Marlins to prove that last year’s playoff run was a fluke. They did, starting with 9-25, which allowed him to begin the deconstruction without seeming hasty. Expect Bendix to remain busy until the deadline officially passes — as we reasoned earlier this spring, the Marlins have a few other attractive trade candidates
The more interesting consideration is whether or not the Marlins’ move will grant permission to other vendors to start deals. If we had to guess? Probably not. It’s one thing to field a bad team; it’s another to start doing white flag business before Memorial Day. Gate revenue isn’t as vital as it used to be, but teams don’t want to give their blessing to fans to stop caring before the team has played 50 games. .
Still, let’s say we’re wrong about this. Let’s say teams like the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, both of whom have worse records than the Marlins, start undermining their rosters now rather than waiting to get busy. Who are some of the players most likely to be on the move? Below, we’ve highlighted 10 early trade candidates to give you an idea of what the market could look like in the coming weeks.
As always, note that this is more of an art than a science, especially at this point in the season. (Also note that we excluded the Marlins, as we covered them in more detail in April and that the players are presented alphabetically.)
1. Jalen Beeks, LHP, Colorado Rockies
Blame the alphabet if this seems like an underwhelming starting point. We thought Beeks was an interesting waiver claim last winter: essentially a lefty rental with a history of suppressing quality contact. He continued to miss barrels despite pitching at Coors Field and having both the strikeout and walk crater. In fact, Beeks ranks in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity, according to Statcast. We think he is a valuable trade candidate for a team looking for a utility pitcher who can work in a single or multiple inning role. It also wouldn’t surprise us if his strikeout rate rebounds after he’s released from pitching in Denver.
Blackburn has been filling articles like this since 2022, when the A’s celebrated the end of the owner-imposed lockout by destroying their roster. He continued to put up good results this season (111 ERA+, 3.11 strikeout-to-walk ratio) after surprisingly disabling his sinker in favor of a four-seamer. We wrote “surprisingly” because Blackburn’s sinker has been his main offering throughout his career. Either way, he still has another year of team control. Get ready now, because the headlines will refer to him as a “former All-Star” when he transfers. (Hey, it’s true.)
3. Erick Fedde, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Give the White Sox credit: Signing Fedde to a two-year, $15 million pact after a stint overseas seems like a sweet deal. He’s overhauled his arsenal to feature a splitter and a sweeper, and in turn is racking up an ERA+ of 153 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.33 in six starts. Technically, the White Sox can’t trade Fedde without his consent before June 15 — that’s true for every free agent who signed a big deal — but they would be wise to start investigating his market sooner rather than later.
Gomber has held up since being sent to Colorado in the Nolan Arenado trade. He is now approaching 30 and a year away from reaching free agency, making this a sensible time for the Rockies to move him to a different team. Gomber isn’t particularly exciting. He’s a soft-throwing lefty without much swing-and-miss ability. He’s off to a decent start this season (103 ERA+ in six starts) and we think his entire deal would work better away from Coors Field. Even so, we still envision him serving as a No. 5 starter or perhaps as a swingman.
5. Eloy Jiménez, OF/DH, Chicago White Sox
We felt obliged to include Jiménez, who has generated commercial interest in the past. He is in the midst of what would be the worst season of his career, as he entered Saturday with an 87 OPS+. On a potentially related note, teams are throwing him more fastballs than fastballs for the first time. Jiménez offers negative secondary value, so it’s concerning that he’s had a more average offensive performance than ever since 2021. Consider how Jiménez isn’t cheap (he’s making $13 million this year with a buyout for his club option ) and we Unfortunately, we are not sure whether it will inspire a robust market.
Don’t call Kopech’s ERA. There’s a lot to like about his game. He has elite arm strength, averaging 90 mph on his four-seam fastball. He has generated 30% strikeouts thus far, resulting in a 34.8% strikeout percentage that ranks in the top 20 among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched. Kopech walks his share of hitters despite an above-average strikeout rate, and it’s fair to have some concerns about the quality of contact he delivers. But you’re kidding yourself if you think the Dodgers, or one of those other smart organizations, wouldn’t want him on their team. He still has another year of team control. The White Sox have no reason to wait.
7. Mason Miller, RHP, Oakland Athletics
We know, we know. We sing this song and dance every deadline with a good reliever on a bad team, and then nothing happens. We’ll justify his inclusion anyway, because it’s not just us: A rival board member recently asked who we thought Miller would be pitching to on August 1st. As good as Miller has been this season, the combination of his injury history and his pyrotechnic arsenal has industry professionals thinking it would be wise for the A’s to cash in before his arm is removed. We certainly hope that’s not the case, but we get it: Pitchers who throw that hard are generally not built to last. Even so, will in truth Do you believe that Atlético will actually negotiate him before the deadline? No.
As with Fedde listed above, Pérez cannot be traded without his consent before June 15 after signing as a free agent with the Pirates during the offseason. Fair. Pérez isn’t particularly flashy; he doesn’t miss hits or record impressive strikeout-walk rates, and he doesn’t even generate as many ground balls anymore (he entered Saturday at 42%, which would be his lowest mark since 2020). He continued to come out and keep runs off the board. He’s done it reliably enough over the last five years to label him as a reliable back-end starter.
Rengifo has had a strange career. He was almost traded before the pandemic to the Dodgers as part of a deal that would have involved Joc Pederson and Andy Pages. That trade failed, as did Rengifo for a few years. Since then, he’s had a resurgence, entering Saturday boasting a 139 OPS+ that would be a career best. We don’t think it will last, but it has its charms if you ignore some notable blemishes. (He doesn’t hit the ball hard; he’s too aggressive at the plate; he’s not a good fielder; and so on.) That is, slugger Rengifo has been adept at crushing pitches with his left hand, boasting a .900- more OPS against them every season since 2022. He still has another year of team control, so the Angels could opt to keep him. However, if they make him available, he is expected to draw interest as a plausible minor league starter at the cornerstone.
As Oakland’s highest-paid player, Stripling is also the player most likely to be traded in the coming months. He throws swing after swing with a full arsenal, including a low-90s four-seam fastball that rents an apartment at the top of the zone. His overall numbers aren’t great (blame it on a beating he took at the hands of the Texas Rangers), but he’s recently logged some solid games against the first-place Orioles and Guardians. There is a limit to the release. Stripling, then, is a perfectly suited candidate to be someone’s fifth starter.
