Brandon Brown
2024 MLB The regular season is about a fifth complete — 473 of the 2,430 games have been played, or 19.5% — and while there’s still a long way to go and many more games to be played, a fifth of the season is a pretty big chunk. The things that have happened in the last five weeks are important. Those wins and losses are in the bank.
As always, some teams are off to a better start than others, and these hot matchups can significantly improve their postseason prospects. Once again, those wins are in the bank, and the more games you win in April, the easier life will be in September. The opposite is also true. Start slow and you’ll have to catch up all summer long. Even on May 3rd, climbing the ranks is no fun.
With that in mind, here are the teams that have most improved – and most harmed – their postseason chances (e.g. Sports Line) five weeks into the season. There’s still plenty of time for things to change, but you can significantly change your outlook on the season after playing just 19.5% of the schedule.
Improved Postseason Odds
Guardians: After surviving on pitching and defense in recent years, Cleveland is humming along with the fifth-highest scoring offense in the game thanks to an outfield that is actually contributing at the plate. Last season, Guardians outfielders combined for a .654 OPS with 18 home runs. 18 home runs all season! This year, the outfield has a .727 OPS and nine home runs. Incredible? No. Significantly better than last year? Absolutely. Additionally, Cleveland is allowing the seventh-fewest runs per game. The Guardians and Atlanta Braves are the only two teams in the top seven in runs scored per game and runs allowed per game. Shane Bieber’s injury will stress their pitching depth over the summer, however.
Oriole: Every projection system, not just SportsLine’s, has underestimated the O’s heading into 2024. This tends to happen with young teams loaded with high-end depth. Projection systems are inherently conservative and don’t yet know how good all these young players are. Turns out they’re very, very good in Baltimore’s case. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman are MVP talents, Jordan Westburg is breaking out, and Corbin Burnes gives the Orioles a bona fide ace. There’s more talent on the way too. Kyle Bradish, who finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting last year, looked great in his season debut Thursday after an elbow injury. The better postseason odds have more to do with the projection systems catching up to the O’s talent level than the O’s playing better than expected.
Brewers: No Corbin Burnes, no Brandon Woodruff, no Craig Counsell, no problem for the two-time NL Central champions. William Contreras is emerging as one of the best hitters in the game, period, and not just one of the best catchers. Brice Turang appears to have found another level, Willy Adames and Christian Yelich (before the back injury) are recovering, and new manager Pat Murphy has done a good job navigating a pitching staff that seems to have a new name every couple of days. . Pitching depth will be tested during the summer months with Wade Miley (Tommy John surgery) and Jakob Junis (shoulder impingement) out long-term. Fortunately for the Brewers, they got a little cushion through the first five weeks of the season.
Biggest Decrease in Postseason Odds
Rays: If it can go wrong, it’s going wrong in Tampa. They are scoring the eighth fewest runs per game because Randy Arozarena (and Yandy Díaz) it’s falling a lot. They’re allowing the sixth-most runs per game because they have a bunch of pitchers on the injured list (as always), the healthy guys aren’t performing well, and the defense is prone to comical mistakes. This is the antithesis of the typical Rays team. Typically, Tampa is elite at preventing runs. The group of 2024 cannot avoid the races. They play in a difficult division too, which doesn’t help. The Rays dug themselves a significant hole five weeks into 2024.
Stars: Simply put, the Astros can’t pitch. They are scoring a lot of runs, even with slow starts from Alex Bregman and José Abreu being so bad that he accepted a relegation to the minors. However, on the run prevention side, Houston is allowing the fifth-most runs per game. To be fair, they have four starters on the injured list (Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy), plus Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander who have missed time, but injuries happen and the depth has been unimpressive. The final trio of Bryan Abreu, Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly has also been much shakier than expected. It’s difficult to completely count out the Astros given their history. The cracks in the foundation are very real.
Blue Jays: Last year, the Blue Jays survived an average offense thanks to four starters (Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi) who got the ball every five days and provided great above-average results. This season, the rotation has been shakier (Bassitt and Gausman in particular) and the offense, oh my goodness. The Blue Jays average the third-fewest runs per game in baseball. Justin Turner and Daulton Varsho are the only players who hit with any consistency. Bo Bichette got off to a slow start and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s (and Alejandro Kirk’s) continued slide is the kind of thing that could close a window of contention much sooner than expected. Like the Rays, the Blue Jays play in a tough division and have an uphill climb ahead of them to get back into the postseason race.
