Brandon Brown
Coming off a disastrous 91-loss season in 2023, the St. Louis Cardinals have undertaken a pitching-focused roster overhaul in order to reverse their fortunes in 2024. More than a month into the 2024 season, however, the team, while marginally more or less a little better, it’s still not good and doesn’t look like a playoff contender. Heading into the weekend’s home series against the White Sox, the Cardinals are fourth in the National League Central and on pace for 89 losses. So yes, (a little more or less) better without being good.
That they have reached this point is perhaps not that surprising given what happened last season. But how they got here is truly surprising. That’s because the pitching additions made by president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and company have worked so well, while the offense — the supposed cornerstone of their 2024 hopes — has been between MLBthe most impactless attacks. This unexpected path to failure deserves a little more exploration.
The good: The Cardinals’ pitching overhaul
As of this writing, St. Louis ranks 20th in ERA specialties and a more respectable ninth in K/BB ratio. That’s not ideal from a run prevention standpoint, so why are we declaring the Cardinals’ rebuilt pitching staff a success? We do this because it is largely repatriated starting pitchers who are driving down overall numbers.
In the rotation, new additions Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have combined for a 2.74 ERA and a 2.90 K/BB ratio in 16 starts. Meanwhile, holdovers Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Zack Thompson have teamed up for 15 starts, and in those starts they have a 6.04 ERA and a 2.29 K/BB ratio. The rotation reset has worked very well in the sense that the starters brought in have been excellent so far. The fact that these three incumbents were so bad collectively is a sign that the reform did not go far enough, not that it was ill-conceived from the start. Even with the Mikolas-Matz-Thompson trio (Thompson was only starting because Gray opened the season on the injured list with a hamstring strain) dragging things down, this year’s rotation was substantially better than last year’s. .
As for the bullpen, it has been pretty solid overall and has shown a similar trend line as the rotation. The Cardinals’ four new additions to the pen have combined for a 1.84 ERA and a 3.27 K/BB ratio in 29 ⅓ combined innings. Additionally, the new faces of the bullpen, Keynan Middleton and Riley O’Brien, combined for just one inning of work thanks to forearm injuries suffered by both. Meanwhile, relievers who have been with the team for all or part of the 2023 season have a combined ERA of 4.66 with a K/BB ratio of 3.04 in 77 ⅓ innings (to be fair, returnees Ryan Helsley and JoJo Romero were excellent).
If you knew the new central figures on the Cardinals’ rebuilt pitching staff would be doing so well, you’d probably rank them first in the division. Of course, that’s not where things stand. Take the position, 2024 Cardinals offense.
The Bad: The Cardinals’ Surprisingly Terrible Offense
The Cardinals’ offense last season ranked just 19th in runs scored. However, his OPS rating was a more encouraging 13th. Look at these numbers and you’ll find stronger fundamental indicators at the batted ball level and good evidence that what would have been a quality offensive attack was undone by bad luck and injuries. Add in the fact that key young contributors like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Masyn Winn could reasonably be expected to grow in skill, and this projects as one of the best non-Braves/Dodgers offenses in the NL.
Of course, that’s not how things have gone so far. Consider:
- The Cardinals are ranked 28th MLB in runs scored and OPS.
- They rank last in home runs.
- They rank 22nd in average exit velocity right off the bat.
- They rank 24th in the rate of most serious impacts.
- They rank 27th in wOBA (what is that?).
This is a broad and all-encompassing failure. Yes, his xwOBA (what is that?) rating is a bit higher than his wOBA rating, and that perhaps suggests better days ahead. The current reality, however, is that Willson Contreras and Winn are the only regulars on the roster who have produced at a high level. Losing not one but two central defenders to injury – first Tommy Edman and then Dylan Carlson – has put them in a bad spot at that position, but that’s hardly an isolated problem in the lineup. When Paul Goldschmidt drops from second to fifth in the order, they’re down to their second primary center fielder, and Walker is in Triple-A, you know things haven’t gone well.
For the Cardinals, the good news is that we are just a month away from the six-month regular season, which means there is plenty of time for the offense to reach the expected level. So far, though, the Cardinals have been a surprising team – in both the good and bad senses of the term. If nothing changes, then 2024 will be different from 2023, but in another, more important way, it will be exactly the same – with the Cardinals at home in October and wondering what the path forward might be.
