Brendan Miller
UFC 300 takes place this Saturday in Las Vegas and the schedule is full of intriguing fights. The UFC tried to put together a card where each fight, from the opening preliminary round to the main event, featured familiar names and significant stakes.
The main event marks the return of UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira, who is looking to make his first title defense against former champion Jamahal Hill. Pereira won the title in November by knocking out Jiri Prochazka. Hill was forced to vacate the title last year after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon while playing basketball.
Additionally, women’s strawweight champion Zhang Weili defended her belt against her compatriot Yan Xiaonan in the co-main event. Weili won three straight and regained the title along the way. Xianoan, in turn, won consecutive victories, including a knockout over former champion Jéssica Andrade.
After going 2-3 with our best bets for UFC 299, we sit at 6-9 on the year. It’s not a winning record, but there’s plenty of time to turn things around and we hope we’ve identified the right moves for a profitable UFC 300.
Bo Nickal vs.
Bo Nickal will win in the first round (-190)
I hate betting on fights like this. Nickal is a -2000 favorite, so the money line is out of the question unless you feel Brundage is about to pull off a huge upset. Nickal never made it out of the first round, with his longest fight to date lasting 2:54. Brundage was stopped twice in the first round, so it only makes sense to play Nickal to do it in five rounds. But eventually, someone is going to drag Nickal past the five-minute mark and banking on a quick finish that night is going to hurt. Fortunately, things seem to have lined up well for this fight, and UFC matchmakers appear to be seeking a very specific type of result for their top-tier prospect on a huge stage.
Charles Oliveira x Arman Tsarukyan
Under 1.5 rounds (+105)
This is a difficult fight to face. Oliveira at +165 intrigues me, but I fear personal biases could influence this, as Oliveira has long been one of my favorite fighters to watch. Both Oliveira and Tsarukyan have strong submission abilities and have multiple UFC wins before the halfway point of the second round. With that in mind, and knowing the high-stakes nature of the fight, I think both men will be looking for the finish rather than playing it safe. Almost everything in this fight seems like a coin toss, but let’s roll with the bottom here.
Justin Gaethje x Max Holloway
Max Holloway Moneyline (+130)
The problem with betting on every fight on the main card of every pay-per-view is that often the best advice on certain fights is “avoid the volatility, don’t bet on this one”. I don’t think Holloway stops Gaethje, but I think Gaethje has the power to break Holloway’s incredible jaw. That said, Holloway has the better boxing overall, so he could accumulate points and take the fight on the scorecards. This five-round fight increases Holloway’s chances a bit if he can put a strong rhythm on Gaethje and tire him out as the fight progresses. It’s about the same money if the fight goes the distance and if that happens, I think Holloway’s work rate outweighs things for him.
Weili Zhang x Yan Xiaonan
Weili Zhang by KO/TKO/DQ (+125)
This is a bad fight for Xiaonan. Zhang is the best fighter in virtually every place a fight can take place, but it’s his ground game that is particularly concerning for the challenger. If Zhang feels she isn’t having enough success with her striking, she has the wrestling game to change tactics. Xiaonan does not have the skills necessary to stop these falls and seemed lost when she was placed on her back in the past. The champion must find a way to finish in one way or another, whether standing or on the ground.
Alex Pereira x Jamahal Hill
Alex Pereira’s Money Line (-140)
I need one statistic to decide that Pereira is the easy choice here: Hill has a total of zero falls in his UFC career. Pereira has improved his grappling a bit, but that’s not even a concern when he enters the fight unless Hill has completely overhauled his game. If this is an impressive battle and nothing more, the world champion kickboxer with overwhelming power is the guy to invest your money in. Add to that that Hill’s last fight was over a year ago and he’s coming off a serious injury and I see no reason for Pereira to be just -140.
Who wins UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now for in-depth UFC 300 picksall from the MMA expert who made more than US$6,200, and find out.
