Forecasting QB competitions after 2024 NFL Draft: Broncos, Patriots poised to open with rookie signal-callers

With 2024 NFL Draft in the rear view, virtually every quarterback situation is set. At least until summer. More than half a dozen NFL teams are prepared to hold open competitions for the position in the coming months, and all but a few of them are registered as legitimate battles. That means about 20% of this year’s Week 1 starters could be up for grabs, increasing the risk of training camps across the league.

Here’s an overview of all the competitions, plus our early prediction of eventual participants:

Bo Nix x Jarrett Stidham x Zach Wilson

The Broncos have done nothing but praise Nix’s experience since spending the 12th overall pick on the Oregon product; If you listen to head coach Sean Payton and general manager George Paton, you’ll believe the 24-year-old rookie is, in fact, the most NFL-ready signal-caller in his class. Which is to say, it looks like Nix’s work must be lost. Wilson also has first-round pedigree with beefy athleticism, but registers more as a boom-or-bust Plan B project. Payton certainly wants control and consistency within the system, and that’s what Nix was created to do.

Projected start of week 1: Bo Nix

Aidan O’Connell x Gardner Minshew

The only quarterback-needy team that didn’t address the position in the draft, the Raiders promised to give O’Connell a chance to keep the job after the 2023 fourth-rounder fared reasonably well amid the in-season regime change as a noob . But other factors point to Minshew eventually securing an upside: He has more experience and mobility, noted newsman moxie, and has secured upfront money to leave the Indianapolis Colts as a free agent. With veterans like Davante Adams in tow, winning sooner rather than later could be the priority.

Projected Week 1 Start: Gardner Minshew

JJ McCarthy x Sam Darnold

The Vikings moved quickly to sign former New York Jets prospect Darnold after seven-year starter Kirk Cousins ​​left as a free agent. But McCarthy is the future, bringing poise and playmaking ability as the No. 10 overall pick. Could he fit seamlessly into Kevin O’Connell’s loaded attack? Clear. At 21, however, he has a long runway, while Darnold – who still has a protruding arm – has experience as a starter. Odds are that McCarthy will take over sometime in 2024, but Minnesota could opt to give Justin Jefferson and Co.

Projected start of week 1: Sam Darnold

Drake Maye x Jacoby Brissett

Many analysts have suggested that Maye, the third overall pick, could use the time to scout, learn and refine pocket fundamentals before taking over the Patriots’ offense. But new coach Jerod Mayo has already hinted at a change in philosophy from the Bill Belichick era by praising the Patriots’ conviction in taking Maye so high, admitting that “our legacy will be defined” by the young gunslinger. Brissett is savvy and helpful with new coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s experience, but Maye’s natural tools may be too tempting to ignore, adding to his upside.

Projected start of week 1: Drake Maye

Daniel Jones x Drew Lock

All indications are that the Giants won’t announce this as a real competition, perhaps in large part because Jones still has three years remaining on a $160 million extension. But they reportedly looked to trade in the draft for Drake Maye, meaning their commitment to Jones isn’t as firm as the money suggests. Word on the street is that Lock was always going to have some chance of altering QB1’s duties anyway. The latter takes a grittier approach, but if Jones is healthy, his experience in the system should earn him a final shot at the job.

Projected Start of Week 1: Daniel Jones

Justin Fields vs. Russell Wilson

This is certainly the most appealing competition from an entertainment point of view. Fields was mercurial but explosive in three seasons as a starter with little support from the Chicago Bears, so his low-cost acquisition at age 25 felt like a steal. You wonder if he will be incorporated even if he doesn’t overtake Wilson, the equally maligned but much more experienced acquisition. The Steelers brass have been unusually proactive this year, suggesting a tilt toward Fields’ upside, but coach Mike Tomlin tends to be patient, and Wilson is a strong arm for the old-school offense.

Projected start of week 1: Russell Wilson

Jayden Daniels x Marcus Mariota

This is the only fake competition in the group. But unlike in Chicago, where there is no doubt about Caleb Williams’ place atop the Bears’ depth chart, both Daniels and the Commanders’ new regime are publicly allowing the notion that backup Marcus Mariota is in contention for the gig. of Week 1. We’ll just say this: If Mariota starts, there’s something deeply wrong here. Daniels is 23 years old, played five years in college and just went second overall on a veteran-laden roster. Your electric mobility should give you immediate control of your work.

Projected start of week 1: Jayden Daniels