UFC 301 predictions — Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg: Fight card, odds, preview, expert picks, prelims

The UFC returns to Brazil on Saturday with an interesting card topped by a fight for the flyweight title. In the main fight, Alexandre Pantoja will make the second defense of his flyweight title when he faces Steve Erceg.

Pantoja will have the support of his compatriots in the crowd when he puts his title on the line, but he faces an interesting test in the form of Erceg, who is fighting for the title with just three UFC wins. Despite a weak track record, Erceg is only a slight +160 favorite because of the depth of skill he has demonstrated thus far in his UFC career.

The undercard is lacking in many ways, but has gained momentum with the addition of UFC Hall of Famer José Aldo. The former featherweight king will face Jonathan Martinez in the bantamweight fight scheduled for the co-main event. Vitor Petrino will face veteran light heavyweight Anthony Smith, Michel Pereira will face Ihor Potieria in the middleweight contest and another fight at 185 pounds opens the PPV when Caio Borralho faces Paul Craig.

With so much going on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our team’s predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 301 fight card, odds

• Alexandre Pantoja (c) -190 vs. Steve Erceg +160, flyweight title
• Jonathan Martinez -160 vs. José Aldo +135, bantamweight
• Vitor Petrino -500 vs. Anthony Smith +375, light heavyweight
• Michel Pereira -550 vs. Ihor Potieria +400, middleweights
• Caio Borralho -550 vs. Paul Craig +400, middleweights
• Joanderson Brito -150 vs. Jack Shore +125, featherweight
• Iasmin Lucindo -420 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz +320, women’s strawweight
• Myktybek Orolbai -275 vs. Elves Brener +225, lightweights
• Drakkar Klose -160 vs. Joaquim Silva +135, lightweight
• Mauricio Ruffy -180 vs. Jamie Mullarkey +155, lightweight
• Dione Barbosa -220 vs. Ernesta Kareckaite +180, women’s flyweight
• Ismael Bonfim -550 vs. Vinc Pichel +400, light weights
• Alessandro Costa -130 vs. Kevin Borjas +110, flyweight

With such a huge main event underway, the CBS Sports team has come forward with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your picks: Brent Brookhouse (combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer), and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 301 Picks and Predictions

Pantoja x Erceg

Campbell: Don’t be fooled by 28-year-old Erceg’s inexperience. Despite just three trips to the Octagon in just 11 months as a UFC fighter, the Australian has quickly risen through the ranks due to his lethal combination of technical striking and wrestling skills. He will enter enemy territory, of course, as Pantoja looks to defend his title in front of his home crowd. But Pantoja’s tendency lately to engage in all-out wars, similar to his split decision victory over Brandon Moreno last July to claim the 125-pound title, may not help him against someone as precise and fluid as Erceg. Pantoja has fought 10 grueling rounds in the last 10 months alone. The opening is there for Erceg to calm the partisan crowd towards a deserved decision victory.

Brookhouse: Choosing Pantoja is not a criticism of Erceg, but rather trusting Pantoja’s experience at a much higher level. Erceg doesn’t beat a fighter with a winning record in the UFC, while Pantoja has multiple wins over elite opponents and has five-round experience. Erceg is a live dog, for sure, but I will ride with experience and proven ability at the elite level.

Mahjouri: Erceg is an impressive fighter and I see a world title around his waist. I’m just not willing to disregard Pantoja’s work. Pantoja drowned UFC’s No. 1 flyweight contender, Brandon Royval, in his first title defense. The champion is relentless in his pressure and has a jaw that can’t be broken. Erceg recently knocked out the notoriously chinny Matt Schnell, just Erceg’s second knockout in 13 professional fights. That doesn’t convince me he can punch Pantoja. Erceg’s efficient and superior striking overshadows the fact that he is primarily a submission finisher. To that end, Pantoja is a talented grappler who also hasn’t been submitted. Finally, it’s a mystery whether Erceg can sustain his output for 25 minutes. Erceg never fought five rounds and was offered the title much earlier than expected. It may be too early for the challenger.

Martinez x Aldo

Campbell: If the confrontation at Wednesday’s media day wasn’t enough to illustrate how excited the “King of Rio” is to end his brief retirement from MMA and try to fight for his UFC contract, it’s time to take notice. Yes, Aldo is 37 years old and hasn’t won a UFC fight since 2021. And yes, his opponent Martinez is no slouch, as the 30-year-old is on a six-fight winning streak and enters as a slight betting favorite . . But Aldo, who spoke in pre-fight interviews about the great opportunities available outside of the UFC with his contract expiring, has a lot to fight for. With the home crowd behind him, the stage appears set for Aldo to find yet another magical moment to potentially lay the cornerstone on a legendary journey in the UFC. He still has the firepower to do it and the experience to finish Martinez when the fight turns into war.

Mahjouri: Aldo hasn’t fought MMA in 18 months, but remains active in low-level professional boxing. This eliminates concerns about ring rust, especially against an opponent who prefers striking. Martinez is in rare form at the moment and a win over Aldo would be an eye-opener. After all, Aldo fought competently against the pre-retirement Merab Dvalishvili and won three straight fights against the top-ranked bantamweight before that. It may be a sentimental choice, but I will use Aldo’s veteran experience and knowledge to overcome any concerns about Martinez’s durability and athletic advantages. It will be a close fight, but Aldo has proven time and time again that he knows how to overcome other attackers.

Wise: While all the attention in this fight is on Aldo, and deservedly so, it seems like Martinez is being overlooked despite being the betting favorite. Martinez was a surprise choice for Aldo’s return fight, as he looked extremely dangerous and a rising bantamweight contender. Martinez has won six straight and eliminated some of the other rising contenders in the division. While this could turn into a leg kicking contest, I’ll trust the younger, fresher fighter to do well. He’ll probably have to finish, given the potential influence of partisan crowd judges in Brazil, but he’s good enough to get the job done.

Pereira x Potieria

Campbell: It may be rare to see a well-known fighter like Pereira, who is on a seven-fight winning streak but is still not ranked in the top 15 in any UFC weight class. Part of that, of course, is due to his move up to 185 pounds last year, which yielded two wins. This is the matchup that has all the potential for Pereira to really announce himself as a future title contender in the weight class, as he gets a tough matchup in Potieria, who has lost three of his last five, including all three by TKO. When Pereira tones down the theatrics and focuses on combining his explosive (and unpredictable) striking with an increasingly dangerous fight game, he becomes a tough option for anyone between 170 and 185 pounds. As long as the local fans don’t pressure him into making the kind of mistakes that led to two UFC defeats, Pereira should just keep moving closer to legitimacy.

Brookhouse: It’s still surprising to see Pereira having a long winning streak. Early in his UFC career, he was a very volatile fighter who made ridiculous mistakes in service of his wild style. Pereira is still a wild fighter, but he has toned things down a bit and become a more complete threat in the process. At middleweight, Pereira looks solid and has an opponent who stylistically is a good pairing. Potieria will be there to be hit and Pereira is good at landing those shots.

Who wins UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now for in-depth UFC 301 picksall from the MMA expert who cashed in more than $1,500 on his 2023 UFC main card picks, and find out.