Brendan Miller
After a massive and exciting UFC 300, many fans were disheartened by the card the promotion put together for UFC 301. Even so, the UFC’s return to Brazil is not without some intrigue, including José Aldo’s return to the Octagon after a brief retirement. and Alexandre Pantoja defending the flyweight title against Steve Erceg.
Pantoja beat Brandon Moreno by split decision at UFC 290 to win the championship and has already made a successful defense, beating Brandon Royval by decision at UFC 296. Erceg has only fought in the UFC three times to date, but has shown good skills throughout his career.
The undercard is lacking in many ways, but has gained momentum with the addition of UFC Hall of Famer José Aldo. The former featherweight king will face Jonathan Martinez in the bantamweight fight scheduled for the co-main event. Vitor Petrino will face veteran light heavyweight Anthony Smith, Michel Pereira will face Ihor Potieria in the middleweight contest and another fight at 185 pounds opens the PPV when Caio Borralho faces Paul Craig.
After going 2-3 with our UFC 300 best bets, we sit at 8-12 on the year. It’s not a winning record, but there’s plenty of time to turn around a tough year, starting with UFC 301.
Paul Craig x Caio Borralho
Over 1.5 rounds (-200)
There’s not much to like about betting on this fight unless you see some reason to consider Craig a huge underdog. Borralho doesn’t take big risks and has spoken about being a “fighting nerd” who calculates the best path to victory, which has led him to be called boring many times. Craig is good enough to survive a round and a half, especially if Borralho approaches the fight trying to play a safe game on top.
Michel Pereira x Ihor Potieria
Michel Pereira wins in the first round (+100)
It’s almost hard to believe that Pereira is on a seven-fight winning streak. When he was on the rise, his style and personality seemed too volatile to form a following of that length. Pereira is the most dynamic talent here and Potieria isn’t averse to trying to roll with the punches to get the job done. Unfortunately for Potieria, going through Pereira’s attacks is not a good plan. We count on Pereira to tear Potieria apart with kicks before finishing the show with his fists.
Anthony Smith x Vitor Petrino
Fight to go far: No (-215)
In a perfect world, the line here would be -200, but we can make this play with confidence. Smith is clearly at the end of his career at this point and pairing him with a dangerous rising prospect seems almost cruel. Petrino can bite with leg kicks and has the kind of takedowns that continue to cause Smith problems. It looks like Petrino can take Smith down on the feet and if Smith gains momentum, Petrino will be successful in taking the fight to the ground and dominating.
Jonathan Martinez x José Aldo
José Aldo Money Line (+125)
Maybe it’s because I’m old and thinking about who Aldo once was, but I like Aldo in this fight. Martinez is a good fighter, but he’s a good fighter who will want to fight Aldo in the way that best suits Aldo’s game. If it continues to be a Muay Thai fight in the Octagon, it sets Aldo up to claim victory in his non-retirement fight. If you want even better odds, Aldo, by decision, is at +200.
Alexandre Pantoja x Steve Erceg
Alexandre Pantoja Moneyline (-185)
Erceg is obviously a skilled fighter, and this isn’t a chance for him, but he has an incredibly weak resume for a title contender. Although Pantoja has wins over Brandon Moreno (twice), Brandon Royval (twice), Manel Kape and many other high-ranking fighters, Erceg’s best win came against Matt Schnell, who entered the fight with a 2-3 streak. in his previous fights. . Given Pantoja’s experience and success at a higher level, it makes sense to follow him here. Erceg may have what it takes to become champion, but there is still no proof that he is worth risking money on.
Who wins UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now for in-depth UFC 301 picksall from the MMA expert who cashed in more than $1,500 on his 2023 UFC main card picks, and find out.
