Christian Smith
The leadership of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) faces a watershed moment this week when the House is expected to consider a Republican proposal to oust him from power — an extraordinary process that highlights the rift pulsing through the party in Donald Trump’s time.
The resolution, championed by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and two other hardliners furious over Johnson’s bipartisan deal, is likely to fail, ensuring the House speaker will maintain control of the gavel ahead of the November elections.
But the vote is expected to be disrupted in a highly unusual way, dividing both parties along strange lines that will produce strange alliances between ideological enemies and send some of Johnson’s most ardent critics racing to ensure he stays in power.
Here are the five groups to watch as the House decides the speaker’s fate.
GOP Critics Ready to Kick It
Greene is marching into this week’s vote with an army of two — Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) — a small force that’s about to stumble amid bipartisan opposition to the motion to unemployment.
The trio sharply criticized Johnson for his propensity to cut legislative deals with Democrats, anger that arose after the House speaker spearheaded a sweeping funding package, boiled over when he backed a bill to reauthorize the U.S.’s warrantless surveillance powers. and it spread. after managing to approve a foreign aid package that included billions of dollars for Ukraine.
Other hardliners undoubtedly expressed frustration with Johnson’s record, but stopped short of joining Greene’s effort. This, however, could change when voting begins next week.
“I don’t have a number yet,” Greene told reporters when asked how many Republicans will side with her. “But this is the recorded vote America needs to see.”
But with the writing on the wall, the motion’s proponents are trying to manage expectations, arguing that even if Johnson keeps the gavel this time, the vote will show he doesn’t have a long-term future in the top job.
“I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that there will be enough votes to show that Mike Johnson cannot be elected speaker of the House in January,” Massie said. “Because while he can get Democratic votes on a motion to be tabled, it is not a motion to be tabled for a vote on January 3rd, and hopefully when Mike Johnson sees that vote he will know he is a lame-duck president.”
GOP critics who want him to stay
Frustration with Johnson is running high in the House GOP conference — especially among the right flank — but those feelings won’t be fully reflected in this week’s vote. A large proportion of conservatives say they will oppose the motion to vacate, despite their annoyance, to avoid chaos so close to the November elections.
These hardliners, many of whom are members of the House Freedom Caucus, want to maintain a united front — or as close to one as the conference can mount — in the run-up to November to avoid the image of disorder and, in turn, convince voters that they deserve two more years in the majority.
“I don’t think there is anything to be gained by a motion to vacate the seat at this time,” said Rep. Dan Bishop (RN.C.).
Another concern on the right flank is the question of who will replace Johnson if he loses the gavel. Without a clear successor in mind, conservatives have said they do not want to install a second-tier candidate who will be the incumbent during leadership elections for the next Congress.
“I wouldn’t want to select someone now who, in my opinion, is probably [be] the least desirable, and not the best option, perhaps, would be an incumbent in November,” said Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), chairman of the Freedom Caucus who voted to recall former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Va. ), California).
“I think we do the best we can with the president we have, we influence him the best way we can, we expose what we believe are wrong actions not just by the president but everyone who is voting to support those actions, and we have a contest to see who the conference can rally around as the best option in November,” he added.
GOP leadership allies who will support Johnson
Right-wing anger toward Johnson was matched by that of the House speaker’s centrist allies.
This more moderate group, made up of veteran lawmakers, committee chairmen and, more generally, institutionalists who want the government to run smoothly, makes up the vast majority of the Republican Party conference. And they attacked radicals for much of the year, accusing them of ignoring the reality that no one gets everything they want in a divided Washington.
These Republicans were up in arms with the conservatives who ousted McCarthy in October. They were furious that hardliners adopted the unusual tactic of preventing procedural votes to stall legislation and advance their demands. And they defended Johnson through his efforts to negotiate with President Biden.
Rep. Mike Lawler (RN.Y.) said there’s a simple reason why Greene is having so much trouble finding GOP support to remove Johnson.
“Because he’s doing a good job,” Lawler said. “We have completed our appropriations accounts; we passed FISA through the House; we have completed the supplemental aid package.
“To my colleagues who are upset about not having access to the border [security]”, he added, “they should look in the mirror, because they weakened the speaker of the House to negotiate when they did not approve a rule”.
Those frustrations have grown in recent days as rank-and-file Republicans — especially those, like Lawler, who face tough re-election contests — warn against another messy fight for the president this close to November.
“Everyone realizes how harmful the motion to vacate process is, and I don’t think it’s a popular thing with our base either,” said Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.).
“At this point, so close to election season, we need to get some spending bills on the floor, start the appropriations process, do no harm, don’t shoot our quarterback in the head in the fourth quarter and win the election.”
Democrats protecting Johnson
The top three House Democrats – led by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (NY) – announced last week that they would vote to introduce, or reject, Greene’s vague resolution, virtually guaranteeing that the impeachment effort would fail.
The move was unprecedented and marks a stark contrast to the Democrats’ approach to removing McCarthy, which they unanimously supported.
The strategy also gives political cover to Democrats who promised, even months before Greene introduced her motion to vacate, to protect Johnson from a conservative takeover if he brought to the floor a short but highly consequential list of legislative priorities, including bills to prevent a government shutdown and provide more aid to Ukraine.
Now that Johnson has helped sign these bills into law, many Democrats are ready to reward him for what they see as responsible government.
“They are trying to expel him because he did the right thing. And therefore, we must not allow this to happen,” said Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.).
It’s unclear how many Democrats will vote to protect Johnson. But Rep. Jim McGovern (Massachusetts), the top Democrat on the powerful Rules Committee, predicted it would be “a big chunk” of the caucus. And the leadership – while not whipping the vote, which it considers a matter of conscience – is also promoting the desire to stabilize the House and prevent Greene from dictating how it is run.
“She is a legislative firebrand,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), chairman of the Democratic Caucus. “And she’s holding the gas tank.”
Democrats Opposing Johnson
Despite the announcement by top Democrats that they will vote for Greene’s resolution, some liberals may deviate from the group and oppose the procedural vote to send a message that, in their eyes, Johnson is not a suitable leader for the Congress and for the country.
Before taking the gavel, the Louisiana Republican had one of the most conservative records on Capitol Hill. And his positions on abortion, gay rights and the role of religion in government have made him toxic in the eyes of liberals, who are unwilling to publicly support his leadership.
Johnson, a former constitutional lawyer, also alienated Democrats because he was the architect of the legal reasoning behind the Republican effort to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election and keep Trump in power — an effort that led to the violent violence at the Capitol in January 2020. 6, 2021.
With Johnson’s fate at stake, these stances are a priority for Democrats.
“I may vote no to send the message that Mike Johnson is still a dangerous leader,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DN.Y.).
The progressive New Yorker said the Democratic strategy could be twofold: provide enough votes to introduce the resolution, but then let other liberals oppose the bet to show their displeasure with the House speaker.
“The ‘yes’ votes provide the functional purpose of what we need,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “The ‘no’ votes allow us to maintain and defend the message that Mike Johnson is still a dangerous leader who seeks to take away the right to abortion… and who also supported nullifying the election and setting the stage for January 6th.”
Rep. Jamaal Bowman (DN.Y.) offered a similar assessment.
“He is dangerous, he is an election denier, he is a fundamentalist and he is not the leadership this country needs,” Bowman said. “We hope that by November, if everyone votes, we will be able to recalibrate Congress and start moving in the right direction for the American people.”
