Caleb Harris
The 2024 NFL Draft is on the books and now we are getting a strong view of how the fantasy football community evaluates this rookie class after the draft. We’ve done enough mock drafts to get a good sense of how valued this rookie class is, at least early in the draft, and here are the key takeaways you should know as you prepare for fantasy draft season. We’ll take a look at several rookie-only drafts and the full PPR draft we did with industry experts after the draft concluded, with the goal of finding key takeaways that can help prepare you for your makeover, goalie, and Dynasty leagues. . in 2024 (and beyond). Let’s dive right in:
There was an expectation that Harrison would be the first rookie off the board in revamped leagues after the 2024 NFL Draft, but landing with Kyler Murray in an offense that traded away receivers Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore is a big reason why we’re seeing this . a lot of early buzz surrounding his revamped stock for 2024. In our full post-draft PPR simulation, Harrison came off the board at 14th overall to Joel Cox. During his rookie season with the Cardinals, Hall of Famer WR Larry Fitzgerald totaled 58 receptions for 780 yards and eight touchdowns in 2004. Harrison will have to surpass those numbers to pay the draft price, but perhaps the biggest factor in Harrison earning a top -15 overall selection in a PPR league is a lack of enthusiasm. around the receivers who come off the board after Garrett Wilson. In this mock, Chris Olave, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Drake London and Mike Evans were the five receivers selected after Harrison. For those Fantasy managers who consider an RB-RB build in Rounds 1 and 2 too risky, there will be a temptation to go for the upside with Harrison over any of the five receivers selected after him.
McCarthy outperforms Maye in Dynasty
Landing position plays an even bigger factor in Dynasty leagues than in the redraft, and despite rookie quarterback Drake Maye coming off the board before JJ McCarthy in the actual draft, this wasn’t the case in our two rookie-only mocks. In our rookie-only QB simulation, McCarthy came off the board at No. 10 overall and then six prospects were selected before Maye was finally drafted midway through the second round. In our SuperFlex simulation for beginners only, McCarthy came in fourth overall, four picks ahead of Maye. None of the players were selected in our revamped simulation. On the surface, it appears that McCarthy is ahead of Maye in Dynasty leagues because he inherits Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson, but how they are valued in Dynasty leagues should depend on each coach’s long-term assessment of the two perspectives. . Maye was my QB2 by a wide margin in this class due to the undeniable and translatable traits you can’t teach: frame, athleticism, and arm talent. He also rushed for over 700 and seven touchdowns in 2022 and offers more upside – specifically in the red zone – than McCarthy. If you prefer Maye over McCarthy in the long run, you could try trading your rookie-only Dynasty drafts to build up capital and get your guy.
Not much buzz about rookie WR after MHJ
After Harrison came off the board at 14th overall, the next rookie selected was Malik Nabers at 63rd overall, behind Adam Aizer (which is no surprise if you heard him fight for the Giants’ rookie in FFT). That’s a four-round difference and also a bigger difference between the first rookie drafted and the next one than we’d typically see. For example, last year in this same post-draft PPR simulation, Bijan Robinson came off the board late in Round 1 and Jahmyr Gibbs was then selected early in Round 4. The first receiver selected was Jordan Addison in Round 7. just one round after Nabers, despite Nabers receiving a considerably higher grade as a prospect from all draftniks. Ladd McConkey came off the board in the 7th round with 75 points overall, in a similar range to Addison. Rome Odunze came off the board 103rd overall in Round 9. He also fits the profile of having a higher grade than any receiver in the final class. In last year’s post-draft PPR simulation, Zay Flowers (Round 8), Quentin Johnston (Round 9), Jonathan Mingo (Round 9) all came off the board around the same pick or just before Odunze. When you consider the 2023 draft class as one of the weakest WR classes in recent memory and the 2024 class considered one of the strongest ever, it’s hard not to think that we were drafting rookie receivers too early last year – or more probably – not writing this beginner lesson early enough. While quarterback play and targets are fair concerns, the community may be underestimating how often talent wins — at least early in these drafts.
You don’t pay a premium for the first rookie RB
It cost a first-round pick to land the top rookie running back last year, but that’s not the case this draft season. The Chargers and Cowboys were projected as the best fits for rookie running backs and neither team used any draft picks in the first five rounds on the position. The first two running backs off the board went to Carolina and Arizona. Jonathan Brooks joins one of the worst offenses in football for the 2023 season and Trey Benson joins a backfield that already has a 1A in James Conner. Brooks came off the board at No. 71 overall with one of the final picks in Round 6 and Benson at No. 95 overall with one of the final picks in Round 8. Training camp highlights will likely boost ADP on both coasts, but without a path Of course for a workhorse role, it’s hard to imagine either of them getting past the late fourth and early fifth round range.
ADP will likely continue to rise for these three WRs
Situation is very important in Fantasy and some (myself included) would argue that it is more important at wide receiver because they are heavily tied to quarterback play. Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey are examples of receivers who have seen their Fantasy stock increase significantly since the draft. Look no further than the quarterbacks first – Worthy joins Patrick Mahomes, Coleman joins Josh Allen and McConkey joins Justin Herbert. The potential for massive target share is boosting McConkey’s ADP. He came off the board 75th overall, nearly 30 picks ahead of Odunze and any other receiver other than Harrison or Nabers. Coleman was the fourth rookie receiver off the board at 94th overall, and Worthy was selected nine picks later at 103rd overall. As we get closer to draft season and projection models release big max numbers for each of these receivers’ target stocks, we could see this ADP increase another 20-30 draft spots for each player.
