Brandon Brown
At 16-19, the Toronto Blue Jays are in the AL East cellar and the underlying numbers are not good. Toronto is scoring just 3.66 runs per game while allowing 4.71 runs per game. The only other teams in the bottom 10 in runs scored per game and runs allowed per game are the Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins. This is not the company you want to keep.
“The time is now. The time is not: ‘This is going to happen.’ The time is now. What are we going to do for this?” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said over the weekend when asked when things would change (via MLB.com). “…It’s not anytime soon. The runway gets shorter and shorter.”
The solution to Toronto’s problems is simply “the players on the roster need to play better.” Chris Bassitt, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, George Springer and others are all performing well below expectations and well below last year. Things are never that simple, right? Guerrero and Kirk, in particular, are in the midst of multi-year setbacks.
It is usually around mid-May that underperforming teams start looking for ways to change the squad, perhaps with a call-up or giving more playing time to the bench or making a trade, like the San Diego Padres trading for Luis Arraez. With that in mind, here are three ways the Blue Jays can shuffle the roster in an effort to get their season back on track.
1. Make Jansen and Schneider everyday players
This has already started to happen! Danny Jansen has started nine of the last 14 games behind the plate because Kirk is slashing .200/.293/.271. Kirk does well defensively, but there is a minimum acceptable standard on offense and he is not meeting it. Jansen has been an above-average hitter throughout his career and a solid fielder. He deserves to be the No. 1 catcher.
As for Davis Schneider, he had an incredible debut in 35 games last season, batting .276/.404/.603. There were some reasons to think he wouldn’t repeat that, namely his high strikeout rate of 30.5%, although Schneider was excellent early on: .270/.372/.473 with a steady 25.6% strikeout rate and ball very strong -data tracking (output speed, etc.). The bat looks legit.
Davis began the season as something of a platoon against lefties, although Kevin Kiermaier’s recent hip injury led to Davis moving into left field almost regularly, and he responded by going 7-for-20 with three doubles and five walks. That doesn’t include Sunday’s 2-for-3 with a double effort and two walks following Kiermaier’s return.
Schneider has played primarily second base and left field this season, although he also has experience at first and third, and his glove doesn’t stand out (good or bad) anywhere. The Blue Jays have another option at second base (more on that in a second), and even when he’s not hitting much (like this season), Kiermaier’s glove is too valuable to leave on the bench.
Third base is Schneider’s best spot and Toronto has received just a .244/.290/.400 slash line from its third basemen this year. Ernie Clement and Isiah Kiner-Falefa spent most of their time playing there. Jansen and Schneider have started to receive more playing time in recent weeks. It’s time to go all in and make them regular players.
2. Free Orelvis
Second base hasn’t been an issue for the Blue Jays this year — their second basemen are hitting .283/.381/.406 — mostly because Kiner-Falefa has put up an uncharacteristic .345/.412/.345 line in his nine games at the position. Cavan Biggio has started 20 of the team’s 35 games at second base and is hitting .205/.326/.295, so yes, there is room for improvement here.
Fortunately, second base is one of the few positions where the Blue Jays may be able to improve internally. Orelvis Martinez, Toronto’s third perspective, is slashing .296/.367/.574 with eight home runs in 29 Triple-A games this year. His exit velocity numbers are strong and his strikeout rate of 22.7% is below the International League average of 24.1%. The young man is performing well.
Here’s what our RJ Anderson wrote about Martinez entering the season:
Martinez, who received a signing bonus worth more than $3.5 million in 2018, repaired his stock last season by hitting 28 home runs combined between Double- and Triple-A. Martinez’s main issues have been his hitting tool projections and his long-term defensive home. He is still prone to an overly aggressive approach that results in a high whiff rate, but it is notable that he recorded a career-high walk rate in 2023. The Blue Jays seemed to concede that he would not be a shortstop, instead of this giving him a lot of burn at second and third base. Martinez’s chances of keeping a MLB the lineup will make or break based on how often he can use his power against big league pitching. We should start figuring out the answer to that question sometime in 2024.
Martinez has made 23 of his 28 starts at second base (one at third and four at DH) and has improved his contact rates since his decent debut in 55 games at Triple-A a year ago. The Blue Jays aren’t just scoring the seventh-fewest runs per game. They also hit just 30 home runs, the eighth fewest in baseball. Martinez may be able to provide an element of power that the offense lacks.
If you want to get really crazy, the Blue Jays can put Justin Turner at third base and give Spencer Horwitz a run at DH. Horwitz is hitting .342/.467/.487 with more hits (26) than strikeouts (20) at Triple-A, his third year at the level. However, that’s a lot to ask of the 39-year-old Turner, and it means sitting Kiermaier so Schneider can play left (with Daulton Varsho sliding into center).
3. Shake up the bullpen
This is easier said than done because the Blue Jays have no viable bullpen options at Triple-A. Top potential customer Ricky Tiedemann is sidelined with a nerve problem, and you don’t have to look too hard to see how a lefty who has struck out 209 batters in 130 2/3 career minor league innings could be useful in the bullpen. Instead, Tiedemann is currently on the Triple-A injured list.
One thing is clear, though: Toronto’s bullpen needs help. It’s been one of the least effective bullpens in baseball six weeks into the season.
I can’t help but think about Alek Manoah. Manoah had a terrible 2023 and missed the start of 2024 with a shoulder problem. He made his season debut on Sunday and looked a lot like 2023 Manoah. He allowed seven runs and put 10 runners on base in four innings. Manoah was also not good during his minor league rehab start, allowing 20 runs in 19 2/3 innings there.
Two years ago, this guy pitched 196 2/3 innings with a 2.24 ERA and finished third in AL Cy Young voting. He’s only 26 too. You’d hate to give up on a pitcher who showed that kind of upside. But clearly, that’s not working, so maybe it’s time to put Manoah in the bullpen and see what happens when he puts it all out in one-inning bursts? Maybe this is the first step to getting you back on track. It can’t be worse than what he’s doing now.
Triple-A options include mid-range prospects like Chad Dallas and Hagen Danner and veterans like Joel Kuhnel and Mike Mayers. Not great. The Blue Jays really need Chad Green (and Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodríguez) to get healthy, and they still need help beyond that. Relievers are unpredictable and you can’t always remain patient. Improvement may never happen.
Is it too early to explore the commercial market? No. No, it’s not. The Padres just traded for Arraez and the Marlins are open for business. Miami right-hander Anthony Bender and left-hander Andrew Nardi have combined for a 7.07 ERA, but the underlying numbers are very strong and there is reason to believe they will move forward better. Both are high-quality bat losers. There are relievers available.
The Blue Jays won 89 games and made the postseason a year ago because their pitching staff — rotation and bullpen — was elite. They have allowed the sixth-fewest runs per game in baseball. This year it’s the opposite. Pitching has been an issue, especially the bullpen. How do you fix that? This is easier said than done, but a correction is needed. It’s time for GM Ross Atkins to take action.
