Blake Davis
Currently, only two golfers have low odds of entering the 2024 PGA Championship: Scottie Scheffler (7/2) and Rory McIlroy (12-1). They have combined to win the last three weeks on the PGA Tour (McIlroy, albeit in a team event alongside Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic) in which they have played.
Depending on how the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow goes this week, it looks like the Tour could be heading toward a Scheffler vs. McIlroy showdown at Valhalla in the second major of the year.
Scheffler, of course, is winning everything in sight. McIlroy, who has struggled a bit in some of the bigger events despite having won twice so far in 2024, won the last time a major was played in Valhalla (10 years ago). It’s a best-case scenario to put these two in some sort of duel for the PGA Championship, but given how well Scehffler is playing and how solid McIlroy has been in the majors, it’s not a huge leap.
Especially considering what McIlroy might have Found in New Orleans two weekends ago.
In almost every way, these two are the best golfers in the world over the last three years. Scheffler has 11 world victories since January 1, 2022, the only golfer ahead of McIlroy’s seven. They are also ranked 1st and 2nd in the following categories:
- Top 5, top 10, top 25
- Strokes Gained: Overall, Ball Stroke, Tee to Green, Off the Tee
- In specialties: Top 5, top 10
- Strokes gained in majors: overall, tee to green
Here’s the interesting part: Even though it’s McIlroy who has gone nearly a decade without a major championship win, a tremendous performance from him could benefit Scheffer, or rather, golf in general, just as much.
While the ratings for the Masters and RBC Heritage have fallen – both Scheffler wins – those for the Zurich Classic two weeks ago have risen significantly. There are dozens of factors that influence rankings, of course, but McIlroy still moves the needle.
Just before the win in New Orleans, McIlroy and Lowry received a standing ovation at a restaurant. It’s emblematic of McIlroy’s stature within the game, and it wasn’t the first time Lowry was impressed by his friend’s presence.
“It was weird for me,” Lowry. he said. “These things don’t happen to me.”
“That doesn’t happen to me either,” McIlroy joked.
“He’s getting older, but he can still move the needle a little bit,” Lowry responded. “Rory brings a crowd and people love him. We had a lot of love this week in New Orleans and had the best week.”
There has been recent criticism – from golf fans generally – that Scheffler is boring, not interesting enough to draw crowds, whether in person or on television.
That’s certainly not a perspective I favor, although facing the biggest non-Tiger Woods draw in the game – while also winning a second major in a row to get halfway to the 2024 Grand Slam – would certainly benefit Scheffler on this front.
It would certainly benefit McIlroy, as he would leave the club 25-4 (PGA Tour wins, major wins) where you currently reside and head towards the more exclusive 30-5 club. A win would also put him alongside Brooks Koepka with five major championships in the race against Phil Mickelson (six) and Arnold Palmer (seven).
And it would be conquered. McIlroy would have to get past someone who is in one of the hottest races in the last two decades.
The biggest winner, however, would be golf itself, which has struggled in recent years.
Between all the fights over LIV Golf and the PGA Tour split and all the money, equity and board seats that have been distributed and redistributed, it’s been hard to find feel-good stories at the top of the men’s game.
This would be one of them.
Two golfers who have spent most of the last few years dominating the professional ranks, each in search of something historic: Scottie, a second leg of his slam. Rory, a fifth major title on his resume.
Two golfers who are easy to root for and fun to dissect like true champions. Two golfers who, in different ways, led men’s golf into an uncertain future. Two golfers who, by killing themselves, could benefit not only themselves, but also golf fans around the world.
