Brandon Brown
The Chicago Cubs enter play on Wednesday with a 22-15 record, good for a virtual tie for first place in the NL Central, just a few percentage points behind the Milwaukee Brewers. They got there after their rotation and despite their bullpen, to almost extreme lengths.
Interestingly, they took a lead in the eighth inning on Tuesday against the Padres – only to come back and win the start – and it was the starter who folded. Still, we can’t help but wonder if Shoto Imanaga was still in the game at least in part because of how bad the bullpen has been.
Imanaga has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is now 5-0 with a 1.08 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 43 strikeouts against five walks in 41 2/3 innings. He would be in the conversation to start the All-Star Game and win the Cy Young if such talks happened after seven games. The Cubs are 7-0 in their games.
He is not alone here.
Javier Assad, who probably wouldn’t even be in the rotation to start the year if everyone was healthy after spring training, is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Jameson Taillon, who started the year on the IL, returned to make four starts. He is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. Returning ace Justin Steele has made just two starts due to the hamstring injury suffered on Opening Day, but he has a 0.96 ERA. There were good starts mixed in by Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks, while veteran Kyle Hendricks did some heavy lifting to ruin the team’s numbers (12:00 ERA in five starts).
Even with Hendricks’ poor start, the Cubs are behind only the Phillies and Red Sox in WAR and ERA. The rotation ERA is 3.03 compared to a league average of 4.00.
The bullpen is, of course, another story.
Individual wins and losses are an archaic measure for countless reasons, but sometimes there is a use for statistics. In this case, it’s telling that the Cubs are one of the best teams in baseball but have nine bullpen losses. There are only two of MLB leads and trails just four teams, with the White Sox, Marlins and Astros having 11 (the Red Sox have 10).
The standout failure in the Cubs bullpen would be Adbert Alzolay, who entered the season as the closer. He screwed up the defense on Opening Day by allowing a home run to Travis Jankowski. He missed three more games until April 20 before losing his closer role. Every missed save resulted in a loss and came via a home run, like extra gut punches along the way. Last Friday, in the eighth inning, Alzolay was tagged with another blown save. That puts him at five. No one else in the majors has more than three.
It’s not just him. Current closer Hector Neris has 13 walks in 14 innings and sports a horrible 1.71 WHIP. The group as a whole threw an 8-0 lead on April 8 for one of the most unlikely losses of the 2024 season. The Cubs’ bullpen ERA is 4.74, ranking 24th in the majors. They made eight blown saves, second only to the woeful White Sox (who have nine). The 1.43 WHIP is only better than the White Sox and Rockies. Cubs relievers are walking 11% of their hitters, which is 26th in the major leagues.
With the rotation working the way it is, it’s a big problem to have such an unreliable bullpen.
The Cubs had expectations of winning the NL Central at the start of the year and they – other than the relief corps – look good. They’ve dealt with injuries to their ace and 2-3 hitters (Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, the latter of whom returned with a big night on Tuesday) and are still tied for first place. This means the bullpen needs to be fixed and cannot wait until the trade deadline.
Part of the fixation has to come internally. Alzolay needs to solve your problems. Neris needs to stop playing walking players. Yency Almonte has been excellent in 12 of the last 13 games and can work in high-leverage situations. Mark Leiter Jr. has been great most of the year and also has a high-leverage spot locked up. The more coach Craig Counsell gets to know his personnel, the more he is expected to find his groove with his new team.
Still, Cubs president Jed Hoyer, who has expertly built this club in every other facet, needs to do a better job with relief pitching. It’s too early to have a litany of sellers on the market, but there are already some teams open for business. The Marlins are 10-28 and I just traded a two-time batting champion.
“I knew the trade was in the works,” Hoyer said earlier in the week (via Marquee Sports Network). “I’ve been talking to the Marlins — in general, you talk to different people. [deal] It wasn’t a surprise.”
Of course, he also said he doesn’t expect this to be much more than a “one-off” deal, but the point is what he’s talking about.
Marlins left-hander Tanner Scott could be suitable for rental. Hoyer could also target teams like the Rockies, White Sox and Angels for bullpen weapons.
Whatever happens in the future, it’s pretty shocking to see such a divide between incredible starting pitching and terrible bullpen work. The Cubs would be around .500 or worse without such good starting pitching and would probably have the best record in baseball if the bullpen wasn’t giving away games.
They’re in the proverbial middle ground for now, but things can’t continue down that path. Something needs to change, otherwise the bullpen will ruin what could be a special season on the North Side.
