Prospect Watch: Checking in on every American League team’s No. 1 prospect, from Roman Anthony to Evan Carter

1 Fumin Jackson Holliday: You’ve certainly read more about Holliday than any other player included in this article. He entered the spring ranked as our No. 1 prospect and then earned an early-season promotion to the majors. Unfortunately, Holliday’s introduction to The Show didn’t go as planned. He was demoted after a 2-for-34 start. Clearly he has some adjustments to make. We are confident he will return to the big leagues at some point this summer in a better position to succeed. two BY Romano Antonio: At the time of rankings, we praised Anthony’s combination of youth, strength, and on-base skills while noting that he would likely need to lift the ball more often to maximize his hitting production. It’s interesting, then, that his production has plummeted, despite him having a low percentage of ground balls in his career. The culprit, from what we can tell? Lack of pulled fly balls. We’ll see if he can start wearing down right field in the coming months. 3 SS Colson Montgomery: Often compared to Rangers star Corey Seager because of his slight facial resemblance, Montgomery sure didn’t look like Seager at Triple-A. His strikeout rate increased by more than 30%, a result of him hitting more than 32% of his swings against four-seam fastballs. Montgomery is rocking quite of fastballs in the middle and above the zone for someone with his pedigree. Not what you want from one of the game’s top prospects, especially when they should be approaching their big league debut. 4 1B Kyle Manzardo: Last summer’s return over Aaron Civale, Mazardo was recently moved to the majors after an impressive showing at Triple-A. Through 29 games, he hit .303/.375/.642 with nine home runs (six of which went to left or center field). The biggest problem for Manzardo was that he didn’t produce the kind of high-quality exit velocities that teams want from their first basemen. Let’s be clear, though, that we’re not talking Nolan Schanuel levels of pop. Manzardo maxed out at 109 mph in Triple-A, a mark that would rank 28th among 34 qualified first basemen — between Michael Busch and Spencer Torkelson. Given Manzardo’s feel for the zone and the barrel, we think he has enough energy to have a solid career. 5 Colt Keith 2B: Keith spent the season in the major leagues after signing a long-term extension before his debut. He has yet to demonstrate the offensive power that convinced the Tigers to make this deal. Instead, Keith is wearing down the right side of the infield with ground balls. He did a good job of making contact and maintaining the strike zone, but it’s fair to write that the Tigers expected more power than they got — he had two extra-base hits in his first 31 games. Keith isn’t a good fielder or base runner, so he’s going to have to start hitting at some point. 6 SS Brice Matthews: Houston’s first-round pick last summer past Nebraska, Matthews hasn’t played since late April because of a back issue. That ailment may explain why he showed a surprising lack of pop in the first 10 games. A strong and energetic Matthews should provide the Astros with an intriguing combination of power and speed. The problem is that he’s struck out too often as a pro for our liking, as he’s a college hitter facing A-ball competition. 7 Blake Mitchell: First-round prep catchers have an abysmal track record, but that didn’t stop the Royals from selecting Mitchell with the eighth pick last summer. He’s already showing off his above-average pop and willingness to score deep, throwing nine extra-base hits and securing 22 hits in his first 23 games. He’s also struck out in over 36% of his appearances, so there’s clearly still room for improvement. 8 1B Nolan Schueluel: We’re not sure if this will work. Schanuel, a landlocked first baseman, has the lowest maximum exit velocity among qualified hitters. Worse than Nicky Lopez, worse than Steven Kwan, worse than Sal Frelick, worse than, well, you get the idea. In his first 60 big league games, he has scored four goals and has an ISO of 0.078. Do you remember how people used to ridicule James Loney for his lack of punches? Loney’s career ISO was .126; his worst mark in a single season was, get this, .078… and that near the end of his big league tenure. We are aware of the fact that Schanuel is only 22 years old and was rushed to the championships. Maybe he can add some strength in the coming years. For now, though, it’s hard to be optimistic about his long-term prospects. 9 BY Walker Jenkins: Jenkins, the fifth pick in last summer’s draft, injured his hamstring after hitting on Opening Day. (For those wondering, he withdrew.) Come back when he gets a clean bill of health. 10 BY Jasson Domínguez: Speaking of which, Domínguez hasn’t played this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. He is expected to begin a rehabilitation mission in the coming weeks. 11 RHP Mason Miller: We noted in Miller’s rating report that he had “major issues” as well as “major injury concerns.” The Athletics moved him to the bullpen in the spring, likely in an effort to reduce his physical workload. Whether that keeps him healthier or not remains to be seen, but he’s clearly a natural for the role. Miller accumulated a 1.26 ERA (309 ERA+) and a 7.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 12 appearances. We can only hope he avoids the shelf, as he is already one of the most electric pitchers in the game. 12 Harry Ford: You’ve probably read this tidbit of ours before, but we felt compelled to reprint it here: A first-round prep catcher didn’t stay behind the plate and authored a solid big league career spanning more than two decades. (Joe Mauer being the last.) Ford has, in our opinion, the best chance of ending this drought. He’s off to a quality start in Double-A, the level that tends to separate the Dudes from the Dudes, showing power and walking almost as often as he was struck out as a 21-year-old. He is also a good athlete who continues to make progress behind the plate. Teams almost always regret going the setup catcher route sooner; the Mariners certainly don’t, at least not at this stage. 13 3B Junior Caminheiro: Caminero missed some time early in the season after suffering a hip injury. In his first 15 games since returning, he batted .312/.364/.639 with five home runs and five doubles. That will work. It seems like it’s only a matter of time before the Rays flip the switch and add Caminero to their big league roster. 14 BY Evan Carter: Carter, last October’s breakout star, continues to perform above average thanks to excellent vision and feel for the barrel. We would be remiss if we didn’t mention how valuable his baserunning has been so far in his big league career. Carter remains perfect in stolen base attempts (five out of five) and has picked up the extra bag during the course of the game an astounding 56% of the time. For reference, the league average clip is generally around 40%. The only flaw in Carter’s game is his lack of home run success. Something tells us the Rangers don’t care about everything else he brings to the table. 15 LHP Ricky Tiedemann: Tiedemann hasn’t played since April 11 after being diagnosed with ulnar nerve inflammation. In three Triple-A appearances before the injury, he displayed a mid-90s fastball and a slider that generated over 45% whiffs. Health has been an issue for Tiedemann throughout his pro career (he’s thrown 130 innings since being called up in 2021), to the point where it’s worth wondering if his future will come as a reliever. For now, the Blue Jays have every reason to continue signing him.