Christian Smith
A photo finish may be in store in Maryland this week as Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) battle for supremacy in what has potentially become the bloodiest primary in the Senate map this year.
Trone, co-owner of Total Wine, was buoyed for much of the race by his tens of millions in widespread advertising in an attempt to get him over the finish line. But that status has suddenly been called into question as his leadership appears to have evaporated into thin air.
A new poll released by Emerson College/The Hill showed that Alsobrooks, the favorite of the state’s Democratic establishment, took a slight lead ahead of Tuesday’s primary in what has become a bruising race for a seat that Democrats cannot afford to lose in November.
“Maryland is a small state politically and everyone knows everyone. Nobody wanted to see this turn into a nasty fight,” said Katie Grant Drew, a Democratic strategist who was a longtime aide to former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.).
“It’s not surprising that things got heated at the end,” she added, “but especially considering the fact that the winner of the primary will face a popular former governor, there was no unreasonable expectation that the candidates would remain focused on the broader goal of keep the seat in Democratic hands.”
The vast majority of the attacks were one-sided, as Trone went on the offensive against Alsobrooks, who has seen his stock rise in recent weeks. The liquor mogul has spent more than $61 million of her money so far, and sources tell The Hill that his ads are outpacing hers by at least a 6-to-1 margin, and potentially more, in recent days.
But Alsobrooks has been under helium surveillance in recent weeks, despite the flurry of announcements. The executive of the state’s second-largest county has the support of much of the state’s Democratic hierarchy, including Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and Hoyer, with operatives arguing that Alsobrooks is on the rise because she is lively the base as voters increasingly tune into the race.
“You can buy name identification. Enthusiasm is hard to buy,” said a Democratic operative with ties to Maryland, noting that Alsobrooks is leading among both women and black voters, according to the Emerson/The Hill poll — two key Democratic constituencies.
“In Maryland, you don’t win by going against the other guy,” the agent said. “You win by exciting the base.”
Although Alsobrooks rose, Trone was the leader in the club for much of the primary after months of heavy on-air spending.
The wealthy businessman also argued that his financial prowess is a reason why Democrats should support him. The party is expected to spend hundreds of millions in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and elsewhere in order to protect incumbents. The congressman’s deep pockets would help spare the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and outside groups from spending money in the longtime Democratic stronghold.
“We could invest tens of millions of dollars into this to defeat Larry Hogan,” Trone said. recently told Politico. “Because we need every dollar we can get to win Arizona, win Ohio, win Montana.”
A victory for Alsobrooks would make history, as she would be the first black woman elected to the Senate from the Old Line State. She would also likely become the second black woman seated in the chamber; Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.) is the overwhelming favorite to replace Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) who retires next year.
Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-California) is the only Black woman in the Senate right now, but she has decided not to run for a full term and will likely be replaced by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-California) after he defeated Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), among others, in the primary earlier this year.
Also checking out the final weeks of the race were a number of Trone gaffes, including accidentally using a racial slur during a committee hearing, labeling supporters of your “low-level” main opponent and raising your voice with a reporter during the campaign.
A second Democratic operative expressed surprise at this series of incidents because Trone was known for being a disciplined campaigner throughout his tenure in the House since winning his seat, which is in western Maryland, six years ago.
The winner will face Hogan, who is already on his own fundraising campaign after raising more than $3.1 million in less than two months during the first quarter and proving his authenticity statewide with two high-profile wins. profile in deep-blue. state.
Despite Hogan’s presence, Democrats remain confident that either candidate has what it takes to unseat him and that a presidential run at the top of the ticket will add the fuel needed to overcome the former governor’s strengths. President Biden carried former President Trump’s state by more than 33 percentage points in 2020 — the third-largest margin of any state the president won.
“This is a national election, it’s not a state election, and Marylanders are going to want to make sure Democrats control the agenda in Congress,” Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) told reporters. “Ultimately… it will be a clear choice for Maryland voters, and it’s also helpful to know who is at the top of the ticket, and all of this means it will be a federal election, not a state one. election, and the Democrats will win.
Cardin also did not support being his successor, indicating that he did not want to weigh in because it is his place they are looking for. He also added that Trone and Alsobrooks are “two excellent candidates, both good people,” and that he is confident in either of them facing Hogan.
Hogan has led most head-to-head polls against both candidates since launching a last-minute surprise bid in mid-February. However, the recent Emerson/The Hill poll found that Trone and Alsobrooks led the former governor in hypothetical matchups. And Democrats have latched onto one poll number in particular: that 55% of Marylanders prefer Democrats to keep control of the Upper House, according to one study. Washington Post/University of Maryland poll released in March.
At this point, Democrats are hopeful that the rift won’t spill over into the summer and allow Hogan — who has never run on a presidential ticket before, much less with Trump on one — to capitalize.
“People will recognize that when it comes to future control of the Senate, they will put aside any differences and come together for the general election,” Van Hollen said.
