2024 NFL strength of schedule for all 32 teams: Browns, Steelers and Packers facing tough slates

With the NFL schedule release coming up on Wednesday, we decided to prepare for the release by taking a look at the strength of each team’s schedule for the 2024 season and, well, Browns fans might not like what they’re about to get. to do. to read.

If the Browns are going to play back-to-back playoff games for the first time in 35 years, it won’t be easy, and that’s because they’ll be facing the NFL most difficult point of the schedule in 2024.

The Browns haven’t made two consecutive playoff appearances since 1989, which is also the last time they won a division title. Their playoff appearance that year capped a streak of five consecutive postseason berths that lasted from 1985 to 1989. The Browns will try to end the drought in 2024, but based on the strength of this year’s schedule, it won’t be easy.

Cleveland has a .547 schedule, which not only gives them the toughest schedule for next season, but also makes them one of only two teams in the NFL – along with the Baltimore Ravens – who will have a strength of schedule above .535.

Cleveland’s tough schedule includes 12 games against teams that finished with a winning record last season, which is tied for the most in the league. NFL. The Browns’ home schedule is especially brutal, with five of their eight games being against teams that made the playoffs last year (Pittsburgh Steelers, Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys). Not to mention, they also play at home against the Cincinnati Bengals, meaning six of Cleveland’s eight home games will be against teams that finished 2023 with a .500 record or better.

The second toughest schedule belongs to the Ravens, who will face a brutal road schedule this year with games against the Chiefs, Bengals, Browns, Steelers, Houston Texans, Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished the 2023 season with a win. record (the Ravens will also play road games against the New York Giants and Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers).

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints finished tied for easiest strength of schedule at .453 (the Falcons and Saints are the only two teams facing a strength of schedule below .465). The Falcons will only play six playoff teams starting in 2023, while the Saints will play eight, which makes New Orleans’ schedule a little more difficult.

The good news for the Saints and/or Falcons is that in each of the last seven years, at least one team that played one of the two easier schedules finished with a winning record. Additionally, in six of the last seven years, at least one team playing one of the two easier schedules has made the playoffs.

Although the Falcons and Saints have the least difficult schedule, they will not have a huge advantage over the other two teams in their division because the Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers also have an easier schedule. Carolina has the fourth-easiest schedule, while Tampa Bay’s schedule is the fifth-easiest.

The addition of the 17th game has added some spice to the strength of the schedule measurement, and that’s because it means that good teams are now playing tougher schedules. From 2002 to 2020, the schedule was inherently the same for everyone, whether they were playing a “first place” schedule or a “last place” schedule. Each team played four games against a team that finished in first place, four games against teams that finished in second place, four games against teams that finished in third, and four games against teams that finished in last place.

With the addition of the 17th game, a first place team will now face FIVE first place teams, meaning you will rarely see a division winner with an easy schedule.

Of the eight teams playing a “first place” schedule in 2024, the Buccaneers have it easiest, which is notable because first place teams have fared well in this situation since the NFL switched to a 17th-place schedule. games in 2021. In the three years since then, the first-place team with the easiest “first place” schedule has finished with a winning record in each season. The Jacksonville Jaguars had the “easiest” first-place schedule in 2023 and finished 9-8. The Cowboys had the “easiest” first-place schedule in 2022 and managed to turn that into a 12-5 record. The Buffalo Bills had the “easiest” first-place schedule in 2021 and finished with an 11-6 record.

If you score at home, that’s an average of 10.7 wins per season.

As for teams that are playing a “last place” schedule this year, the Chicago Bears got the biggest win as they have the easiest schedule among the last place teams (their schedule strength is 29th overall ). On the other hand, the New England Patriots, who also play in last place, have the eighth toughest schedule in the NFL, meaning this could be a tough year for them.

One team to watch might be the Chargers, who have the easiest strength of schedule in the AFC. They may not make the playoffs, but in Harbaugh’s first year with the team, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them improve several games over their 5-12 record in 2023. Last year, we wrote that the Texans it would be the surprise team observe based on the strength of the schedule, and we nailed it.

The Bengals could also be another team to watch. The Browns, Ravens and Steelers have the three toughest schedules in the NFL this year, but Cincinnati’s schedule ranks just 16th overall with an SOS of 0.502. The Bengals have the advantage of facing three opponents – the Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Panthers – that no other team in the AFC North will face. To put that into perspective, the Ravens’ three opponents that no other AFC North team will face are the Bills, the Texans and the Buccaneers. On paper, this is definitely tougher than Cincinnati’s roster.

The thing about schedule strength is that there is no perfect way to measure schedule strength before the season starts. Thanks to injuries and trades, lineups change all the time and will continue to change throughout the season. That said, the strength of the schedule gives you a good idea of ​​what your favorite team will face next season.

Here are the 2024 schedule strength rankings for each team (combined 2023 record of all 17 opponents, combined winning percentage).

If you’re curious about the scheduling formula, each team plays 17 games as follows:

• Home and away against opponents from all three divisions (six games).
• The four teams from another division of their conference on a three-year (four-game) rotating cycle.
• The four teams from one division of the other conference on a four-year (four-game) rotating cycle.
• Two intra-conference games based on the previous year’s standings (two games). These games pit a first place team against the first place teams in the two divisions of the same conference that the team is not scheduled to play in that season. The second-, third-, and fourth-place teams in a conference are matched the same each year.
• An interconference game based on the previous year’s standings on a four-year rotating cycle (one game). These games pit a first place team from one division against a first place team from an opposite division of the conference that the team is not scheduled to play in that season. The second, third and fourth placed teams in each division are matched the same each year. The home conference for this game will rotate each season.

Finally, here is a link to a list of all home and away opponents each team will play in 2024. The time and dates for each game will be announced in May.