Brandon Brown
Here’s a scary, impossible-sounding thought: Shohei Ohtani, the Los Angeles Dodgers star and reigning American League Most Valuable Player Award winner, is having a career year.
Ohtani entered Monday batting .352/.423/.667 with 11 home runs and nine stolen bases (in nine attempts) in his first 40 games. If the resulting 204 OPS+ holds up — and yes, we’re aware of the statistical concept of regression to the mean — it would topple his previous career high of 184, set last season en route to signing a 10-year, $700 million pact . with the Dodgers. (We feel compelled to note that the current contract value is significantly lower due to unprecedented deferrals.)
We’re far enough into the season, we’re past quarter points, and we felt it would be worth diving into Ohtani’s game and seeing what, precisely, is driving his production. Below, we highlight three developments worth knowing about.
1. Improved approach
We don’t think it’s controversial to write that the Dodgers have a better reputation in player development and game planning than Ohtani’s former team, the Angels. With that in mind, is it any surprise to hear that Ohtani has altered his approach this season compared to recent years? Specifically, he built on elements of his approach that already worked for him.
TruMedia
TruMedia
Take a look at the two heatmaps above, showing Ohtani’s swing rates in counts that had fewer than two hits. As you can see, he’s always had an appetite for hitting pitches up and inside – he took it a step further as a Dodger, increasing his level of aggression in that area of the zone. He is also ditching proposals that in the past would have resulted in a higher bid rate.
Ohtani, meanwhile, also improved in several plate discipline metrics. He’s chasing outside the strike zone less often; he is making a lot of contacts in his career; and he’s even swinging less often, both overall and on the first pitch he sees at bat.
This looks to us like a scout who knows what he’s looking for and has become more confident in looking for it, while also minimizing wasted opportunities.
2. Lifting the ball more often
A player’s batted ball profile is often a function of his approach. In extreme terms, a batter who hits exclusively on pitches below and below the zone is much more likely to hit a high frequency of grounders than a hitter who hits exclusively on pitches above and above the zone.
With that in mind, it’s notable but not surprising that Ohtani’s focus on hitting elevated shots has corresponded with a shift toward aerial contact.
Ohtani entered Monday with a 33.9% ground ball percentage this year, which would be the lowest of his career by far. (The only other time he finished with less than 40% grounders was in 2021, when he recorded 39.7%.) Ohtani is, likewise, pulverizing a greater share of his most hit balls (95 mph and above) at launch – angular window associated with line drives:
- Ohtani, 2021-23: 42.5% between 10-30 degrees
- Ohtani 2024: 50.6% between 10-30 degrees
That’s a recipe for a high batting average.
What’s more, though, is that Ohtani is also pulling the ball at the second-highest rate of his career. As we’ve established before, the safest way for a batter to add hitting ability is to pull balls into the air. It’s no wonder, then, why he’s on pace to deliver his third career 40-homer season — and why he’s hitting pretty well for average and providing plenty of on-base percentage in the process.
3. Mastering off-speed pitches
We will close this article by highlighting that Ohtani has performed unusually well this season when faced with non-fastballs. Throughout his career, he has always caused the most damage to heaters. In fact, before this season, it had been years since he hit .270 against broken or off-speed pitches. So far in 2024, Ohtani is batting .333 against fastballs, .370 against breaking balls and .385 against offspeed pitches. We can assure you that you read these last marks correctly.
It’s not just that Ohtani has improved his results against non-fastballs. Just looking at his trends since 2020, he’s making more contact and chasing less often than in any other season when he faced a breaking ball or off-speed pitch. This indicates a greater improvement in pitch recognition, game plan, or some combination thereof.
It’s important to note that the Dodgers as a whole have shown a propensity to hit secondary pitches, ranking third among teams with a .246 average and batting .441 against nonfastballs. Entering Monday, Los Angeles’ lineup also contained three of the top 10 averages against nonfastballs: Ohtani (third), Will Smith (fourth) and Freddie Freeman (tied for ninth).
Credit the Dodgers’ success on non-fastballs to whatever combination of top-end coaching and preparation you desire. It’s part of the reason they’re on schedule to deliver another 100-win season, and it’s why Ohtani looks like an improved version of his already excellent personality.
