Caleb Harris
The Buffalo Bills will have a completely different wide receiver room in 2024 than they had in 2023 and during previous editions of Josh Allen’s offense. They put what could be the finishing touch on their wide receiver corps on Tuesday when they signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the roster. With Stefon Diggs (traded) and Gabe Davis (signed by the Jaguars) out of the squad, fantasy football managers are left thinking about how the target share will change and which players they will be most excited about. Make no mistake, the Bills passing game is one where Fantasy managers will be trying to get shares – so let’s try to figure out which receivers will return the most value.
Unoccupied targets
Between Diggs and Davis, the Bills are missing 241 targets heading into the 2023 season. Diggs was targeted 160 times and Davis 81 times last season. Of the wide receiver corps, Diggs and Davis accounted for 73% of the Bills’ total wide receiver targets in 2023. Rookie first-round pick Dalton Kincaid was second on the team with 91 targets and saw a expanded role down the stretch, starting with an 11-target game in Week 9.
Even before Diggs was traded to Houston, a clear changing of the guard was underway in Buffalo. During his last 10 games with the Bills (including playoffs), Diggs had just 422 receiving yards, one touchdown, a 58% catch rate and just 5.5 yards per target.
Current WR body
With the addition of Valdes-Scantling, it’s clear the Bills made a point of increasing the size of their receiver room. Valdes-Scantling checks in at 6-4 and has also added Mack Hollins (6-4), Chase Claypool (6-4), Keon Coleman (6-3) and Kincaid (6-4) in recent seasons. His lineup now has a better mix of speed/elusiveness and size with the return of Khalil Shakir and the addition of Curtis Samuel in free agency.
Valdes-Scantling will likely compete with Hollins, Claypool and Coleman for an outside receiver role, but the Bills could try to blur traditional receiver role lines with tight divisions of condensed formations under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. This could put Samuel on the field at the same time as Shakir, for example. The depth chart remains open at receiver in terms of who will be on the field and given the fact that the Bills can also rely on 12 personnel with Kincaid and Dawson Knox on the field at the same time.
Valdes-Scantling projects more as a top fantasy ball option – with production that’s hard to predict from week to week. Shakir had some initial excitement before the offseason, but his role became murkier with the addition of Samuel in free agency and even more uncertain after the team invested major draft capital in Coleman.
Speaking of Coleman, the rookie has received more news and updates since the draft outside of Kincaid. Fantasy managers are betting on the upside of the unknown with Coleman, but a crowded receiver corps and a heavier play caller than the Bills have had in the last two iterations of the offense (Brian Daboll, Ken Dorsey) limit his upside. It’s not as simple as it seems, even though he is the most talented receiver in Josh Allen’s offense.
Kincaid season?
The second-year tight end is a popular 2024 prospect and the Bills’ highest-drafted skill player. Kincaid’s role should be assured despite the crowded receiver corps, and he will continue to fill Knox’s role. Given your capital in the first round, your impressive scout profile and another offseason to develop his relationship with Allen, Kincaid has a case to be the TE1 in Fantasy in 2024. He nearly surpassed 100 targets as a rookie despite not playing the snap share we projected in 2024 and having Diggs and Davis on offense . Kincaid could project to see more than 120 targets in a truly groundbreaking campaign. The speed and size the Bills have added around Kincaid — specifically the addition of Valdes-Scantling — could open up the middle of the field for Kincaid to do his damage. I’m bullish on the second-year TE and currently rank him as my 2024 TE2.
