James Smith
Hundreds of people have died across Asia in recent weeks as the region suffered under scorching temperatures. And a new study has determined an important factor in how it all happened.
Last month, many areas of India recorded temperatures well above triple digits. The country meteorological service says hot flashes are not uncommon between March and June, with May being the “peak month” for extreme weather events. In Bhagdora, India, last month, temperatures reached almost 115 degrees Fahrenheit, as the Indian Meteorological Department issued a red alert, meaning that the intense heat was expected to persist for more than two days and that there was a very high probability of heat-related illnesses.
In other parts of the country, it was so hot that schools were cancelled, a problem people also faced in the Philippines. Authorities also urged people in Thailand to stay indoors whenever possible to avoid the heat, as dozens of people had already died from heat-related illnesses. According to Associated PressThe April heat killed at least 28 people in Bangladesh, five in India and three in Gaza.
And according to the World Weather Attribution organization, it all boils down to two words – of Climate Change.
Sudipta Das/NurPhoto via Getty Images
“The heat wave has exacerbated the already precarious conditions faced by internally displaced people, migrants and people in refugee camps and conflict zones across West Asia,” says a new study from the organization. “…Extreme heat has forced the closure of thousands of schools in South and Southeast Asia.”
The researchers said that while the type of heat experienced during this period is “not very rare,” it is only being amplified by climate change, which is fueled by global warming caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels.
West Asia is expected to get a extreme heat event once a decade, and in the Philippines this probability is even lower, about once every 20 years, when El Niño is not in action. In South Asia in general, extreme heat is not common.
Andre Malerba/Bloomberg via Getty Images
“An extremely hot April like this is a slightly rarer event, with a 3% chance of happening in a given year – or once every 30 years,” the researchers said, adding that observations and data models show that human-caused climate change creates a “sharp increase in probability and intensity.”
“In the Philippines, the change in probability is so large that the event would have been impossible without human-caused climate change,” they said. “In West Asia, climate change has increased the probability of the event by about a factor of 5.”
Average April temperatures in South Asia, which the group studied twice in the past two years due to other extreme events, “are now about 45 times more likely and 0.85 degrees Celsius warmer,” they found.
“It seems like a broken record – yes! But the heat is still underreported, underreported and extremely deadly,” said Friederike Otto, who is part of the World Weather Attribution study, in social media. “The world is not prepared for today’s climate change, much less for future climate change.”
Extreme heat is “becoming the silent killer,” Ko Barrett, deputy secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said in April.
“Heat-related mortality it is largely underreported and so the true scale of premature deaths and economic costs – in terms of reduced labor productivity, agricultural losses and stress on the power grid – is not accurately reflected in statistics,” she said.
The World Weather Attribution report came a day before another WMO report that concluded this April was the hottest on record and the 11th consecutive month of record temperature around the world.
The average surface air temperature last month was 15.03 degrees Celsius, about 59 degrees Fahrenheit, more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than in pre-industrial times. Scientists have warned that if the planet experiences persistent temperatures at this 1.5 threshold, it could cause significant impacts on climate events, leading to global issues around food and water availability, migration and the infrastructure.
“The record temperatures were accompanied by high impact weather events – including intense heat in many parts of Asia,” the WMO said. “The heat has also had a major impact on agriculture, causing damage to crops and reduced yields, as well as on education, with holidays having to be extended and schools closed in many countries. countries, affecting millions of students.”
It will take years of this 1.5 continuous violation degrees above pre-industrial levels for the planet officially means that humans have failed to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and have plunged the world into a more disastrous climate era. However, 11 months of record heat – and potentially beyond – indicate “the first signs that we are dangerously close to exceeding the long-term threshold”, the United Nations says.
“Every fraction of a degree of warming matters. With each additional increase in global warming, changes in extremes and risks become greater”, states the international agency. “…We need to bend the global emissions curve – and the production and consumption of coal, oil and gas – downward, starting now. There is a wide range of solutions.”
Arshad R. Zargar contributed to this report.
Li Cohen
