Blake Davis
No major has been dominated by Americans like the PGA Championship. Nearly 83% of all winners were born in the US entering the 2024 PGA Championship, with the Masters ranking second among the majors at 72.7%. The last eight winners have all been Americans, including Brooks Koepka (three wins), Justin Thomas (two), Phil Mickelson, Collin Morikawa and Jimmy Walker. However, Valhalla Golf Club will host the 2024 PGA Championship field, and the last time the Louisville course hosted this major tournament, Irishman Rory McIlroy won in 2014. Coming off back-to-back victories this season, McIlroy is the second favorite at the 2024 PGA Championship odds are 6-1, behind only Masters champion Scottie Scheffler (3-1).
Defending PGA champion Koepka is 10-1 to repeat, while two golfers who have yet to win a major round are in the top five, Xander Schauffele (12-1) and Ludvig Aberg (12-1). Before securing any 2024 PGA Championship picks, entering PGA DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings or FanDuel, or finalizing PGA Championship props and PGA Championship Pick Six entries, be sure to See the 2024 PGA Championship golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on a roll since the PGA Tour restarted in June 2020. In fact, the model has won nearly $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, winning tournament after tournament.
McClure’s model correctly predicted that Scottie Scheffler would finish atop the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit +9,000, and throughout the tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,000.
The model also predicted that Jon Rahm would be victorious in the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model surpassed Rahm’s second major career win over the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead in the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the model’s second consecutive victory at the Masters, which also guaranteed Scheffler’s victory in 2022.
Additionally, McClure’s best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing at the top of the table 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic rankings.
This same model also hit 11 majors entering the weekend and has reached the Masters three years in a row. Anyone who followed it saw massive returns.
Now with the 2024 PGA Championship field taking shape, SportsLine has simulated the tournament 10,000 times and the results have been surprising. Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 PGA Championship Predictions
A big surprise that the model expects at the 2024 PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka, three-time PGA champion and one of the main favorites, stumbles and does not even reach the top 10. Koepka has five major tournament victories under his belt and a reputation for raising his level of gambling at major events. However, his last two major matches have not gone well, as he was 45th in the Masters, which followed a 64th-place finish in last year’s Open. He has failed to make par in each of his last seven rounds at major tournaments.
After notching three tournament wins in 2023, including last year’s PGA Championship, it has been difficult for Koepka to sled in 2024. He has no wins, not even a top-five finish, and in his six starts, he has three more finishes outside the top 25 (three), as well as among the top 10 (one). He played Valhalla in the 2014 PGA Championship and finished tied for 15th, but that placement ranks just eighth in his 11 career PGA Championship start. See who else will disappear here.
Another surprise: Collin Morikawa, with a 25-1 chance, has a good campaign for the title. He is a target for anyone looking for a big payday. Already with one PGA Championship victory (2020) and one British Open victory (2021), Morikawa is one of only three golfers with multiple major championships since 2020. He also has six top-five finishes at majors since then, tied with Scheffler for most in golf. This year on tour, he enters his second major of the year coming off four consecutive top 25s, including a third-place finish at the Masters and a ninth-place finish at the RBC Heritage the following week.
Morikawa posted these recent results despite not being in the best shape, as he ranks 103rd in strokes gained: approach this season after being in the top three in each of the last four seasons. So there is room to grow his game even more, although he is still elite with his first and last shots. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage and is 12th in one-shot percentage. His form is on the rise based on his last four events, so someone who has proven his mettle in major events like Morikawa should not be overlooked in 2024 PGA Championship betting. See who else can return here.
How to Make Picks for the 2024 PGA Championship
The model also targets four other golfers with odds of 25-1 or better to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who supports these longshot hypotheses could hit big. You can only see the model choices here.
Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship and what odds will surprise the golf world? Check out the 2024 PGA Championship odds below and later visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model who has won 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters.
2024 PGA Championship Odds, Field
Get full 2024 PGA Championship picks, best bets and predictions here
Scottie Scheffler +300
Rory McIlroy +600
Brooks Koepka +1000
Xander Schauffele +1200
Ludvig Aberg +1200
Jon Rahm +1400
Joaquín Niemann +2500
Collin Morikawa +2500
Bryson DeChambeau +2500
Wyndham Clark +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2800
Cameron Smith +3300
Max Homa +3300
Viktor Hovland +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Will Zalatoris +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Tommy Fleetwood +4500
Dustin Johnson +4500
Cameron Young +5000
Jason’s Day +5000
Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
Tyrrell Hatton +5000
Jordan Spieth +5500
Tony Finau +5500
Patrick Reed +6000
Byeong Hun An +6000
Sam Burns +6000
Shane Lowry +6000
Tom Kim +6000
Sungjae Im +6500
Dean Burmester +6500
Sahith Theegala +6500
Abraham Ancer +7000
Min Woo Lee +7500
Brian Harman +7500
Talor Gooch +8000
Keegan Bradley +8500
Akshay Bhatia +8500
Russell Henley +8500
Adam Scott +8500
Sepp Straka +8500
Si Woo Kim +9000
Tigre Forests +12500
David Puig +12500
Corey Conners +12500
Rickie Fowler +12500
Stephan Jaeger +12500
Denny McCarthy +12500
Phil Mickelson +12500
Jake Knapp +12500
Chris Kirk +12500
Billy Horschel +12500
Sergio Garcia +12500
Taylor Pendrith +12500
Adrian Meronk +12500
Austin Eckroat +15000
Mackenzie Hughes +15000
Alex Noren +15000
Harris English +15,000
Matthieu Pavón +15000
Ryan Fox +15000
Adrian Otaegui +15000
Justin Rosa +17500
Adam Schenk +17500
Keith Mitchell +17500
Myth Pereira +17500
Kurt Kitayama +17500
Daniel Berger +17500
Christian Bezuidenhout +17500
Emiliano Grillo +17500
Lucas Herbert +17500
Tom Hoge +17500
Victor Perez +17500
Erik Van Rooyen +17500
Lucas Glover +17500
Nicolai Hojgaard +20000
Eric Cole +20000
Jordan Smith +20000
Thomas Pieters +20000
JT Poston +20,000
Thomas Detry +22500
Ryan Van Velzen +22500
Cam Davis +22500
Thriston Lawrence +22500
Beau Hossler +22500
Aaron Rai +22500
Ben Griffin +22500
Nick Taylor +22500
Alex Smalley +22500
Brendon Todd +25000
Maverick McNealy +25000
Luke’s List +25,000
Nick Dunlap +25000
Davis Riley +25000
Adam Hadwin +25000
Marc Leishman +25000
Seamus Power +25,000
Ryō Hisatsune +27500
Matt Wallace +27500
Andrew Putnam +27500
Andy Ogletree +27500
Patrick Rodgers +30000
Doug Ghim +30000
Taylor Moore +30000
Sebastian Soderberg +30000
Adam Svensson +30000
Rasmus Hojgaard +30000
Robert MacIntyre +30000
Gary Woodland +30000
Lee Hodges +30000
Ben Kohles +30000
KH Lee +30000
Camillo Villegas +35000
Alejandro Tosti +35000
Taylor Montgomery +35000
Vicente Norrman +35000
Jesper Svensson +35000
Tim Widing +35,000
Charley Hoffman +40000
Mark Hubbard +40000
Keita Nakajima +40000
Zac Blair +50000
Francisco Molinari +50000
Joel Dahmen +50000
Pedro Malnati +50000
Sami Valimaki +50000
Takumi Kanaya +50000
Grayson Murray +50000
Alexander Bjork +50000
Martin Kaymer +75000
Kazuma Kobori +75000
Brice Garnett +75000
Michael Block +75000
Padraig Harrington +75000
Lucas Donald +75000
Jimmy Walker +75000
Ye Yang +100000
Jason Dufner +100000
John Daly +150000
Wyatt Worthington IV +150000
Tyler Collet +200000
Matt Dobyns +200,000
Josh Speight +200,000
Braden Shattuk +200000
Brad Marek +200000
Tracy Phillips +200,000
Evan Bowser +200,000
Josh Bevell +200,000
Larkin Gross +200,000
Rico Beem +200,000
Zac Oakley +200000
Jeremy Wells +200,000
Preston Cole +200000
John Somers +200,000
Ben Poland +200000
Kyle Mendoza +200000
Jared Jones +200,000
Shaun Michael +200,000
Jeff Kellen +200,000
Jesse Mueller +200,000
Andy Svoboda +200000
