Caleb Harris
While football may not exactly be on mind in May, it will soon be NFL will be back at the forefront of our lives. A reminder of that fact came on Wednesday, with the league releasing its full 2024 regular season schedule, which you can find here. In this space, we’ll stay focused specifically on Week 1 and take a look at the betting odds to provide some initial tips. Of course it must be emphasized that these are early It depends on the fact that these games haven’t been played in months and there’s still a lot to be determined between then and now, but it’s always a fun off-season exercise.
With that, let’s get straight to the point. Below, you’ll find the starting odds for the opening slate and our initial picks for how we see each Week 1 game play out.
All NFL Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Chiefs will reveal their latest Super Bowl championship banner to open 2024 NFL season and then we get a tasty AFC Championship rematch with the Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium. Last year, when KC was in this exact same position, they fell to the Lions in the opener. This game was marked by a series of poorly executed plays by his receivers, and I don’t think Patrick Mahomes will be caught sleeping for the second time in a row. The Chiefs revamped their wide receiver room this offseason, headlined by Marquise Brown and first-round pick Xavier Worthy. Meanwhile, the Ravens should be a threat in the conference once again, but it remains to be seen what impact losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald will have in 2024. This being a field goal, let’s roll with the Chiefs, who were 5-4 ATS as home team in 2023.
Projected score: Chiefs 23, Ravens 20
The choice: Bosses -2.5
Packers against Eagles (-1.5), Friday – in Brazil
The NFL International Series start in early 2024 with the league scheduling a Friday game between the Packers and Eagles in Brazil. Philly is technically the home team, but this is a neutral game, which impacted the line. The question for this game comes down to the Jordan Love vs. Philadelphia secondary. Love has been excellent down the stretch in 2023, completing 70% of his passes and has thrown 18 touchdowns and just one interception in his final eight regular-season games. Meanwhile, the Eagles have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league. They added Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean to the draft, but if they’re not ready, I could see Green Bay heading back to USA at 1-0.
Projected score: Packers 23, Eagles 21
The choice: Packers +1.5
The Falcons made some of the biggest waves this off-season with the signing of Kirk Cousins in free agency. On paper, they are slated to be much better than they have been in recent seasons, but the jury is still out on how Cousins will perform on the field when he returns from his season-ending Achilles injury. This makes me a little tired of making a complete field goal, especially against a stout defense like Pittsburgh’s with TJ Watt. There’s also a revenge narrative here for the Steelers’ offense, which is being led by former Falcons coach Arthur Smith. Whether it’s Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, I can see the Steelers — who were 5-4-ATS on the road in 2023 — keeping it within the number.
Projected score: Falcons 23, Steelers 21
The choice: Steelers +3
The Cardinals were aggressive in 2023 and went 9-8 ATS. That was without Kyler Murray for much of the year, which isn’t a concern in 2024. Not only did Arizona get a healthy Murray to start the year, but they also gave the offense a huge boost by drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. NFL Draft. Pairing him with fellow receiver Michael Wilson and tight end Trey McBride could be enough firepower to keep up with Buffalo. After all, the Bills have completely overhauled their wide receiver room and the offense may need to work out some growing pains before getting into full swing. I can see the back door open for Arizona to cover at this position against a Bills team that is 5-5 ATS at home in 2023.
Projected score: Beads 27, Cardinals 21
The choice: Cardinals +7
Expectations are quite high for Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears, who are favored to surpass their 8.5 win total this season. The No. 1 pick exudes top-tier talent, but it might be a little early to back him as a 4.5-point favorite. Tennessee spent the entire offseason building around second-year quarterback Will Levis, adding names like Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley in free agency. They also injected talent into the secondary with L’Jarius Sneed. Tennessee could be a more sophisticated product early on, so we’ll lean toward first-year head coach Brian Callahan getting his first win early in the season.
Projected score: Titans 23, Bears 20
The choice: Titans +4.5
If we were to guess right now, Jacoby Brissett is starting for the Patriots instead of No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye in Week 1. If we’re being honest, it doesn’t matter when it comes to the outcome of this head-to-head. -head. As long as Joe Burrow is healthy, this should be a game dominated by the Bengals. New England is a team in transition, while Cincinnati, when firing on all cylinders, is a Super Bowl threat.
Projected score: Bengals 30, Patriots 16
The choice: Walking sticks -7.5
The Texans will be the sexy pick in the AFC this season, based on the sensational rookie season that CJ Stroud put together. Factor in the offseason addition of star Stefon Diggs, and Houston could be on the verge of something special. Meanwhile, the Colts added some intriguing pieces this offseason and Anthony Richardson shined when he was on the field, but Indy is a level below right now.
Projected score: Texans 27, Colts 20
The choice: Texans 1.5
The Dolphins got off to a strong start last year, winning five of their first six games, and there is reason to believe that could happen again in 2024. Miami was 6-3 ATS last season at home and boasts one of the NFL’s fastest offenses. As for the Jaguars, they are recovering from a late-season collapse that knocked them out of the playoffs. They were 4-3 ATS on the road in 2023, but I could see that Miami’s offense was simply too overwhelming to keep up with.
Projected score: Dolphins 30, Jaguares 24
The choice: Dolphins -3.5
It’s not exactly the most exciting game of Week 1, but it still has some intrigue. Carolina made solid progress this offseason in building a better system around Bryce Young, including bolstering the offensive line and giving him some pass-catching weapons like Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette. The Panthers were a league-worst 1-7-1 ATS on the road last season, but that should improve somewhat in 2024 and could happen as early as Week 1. The Saints are not world champions by any means and were 3-5 in the Superdome in 2023. It looks like another ugly field goal game, so I’ll take the points here and lean on the comeback a bit.
Projected score: Panthers 20, Santos 17
The choice: Panthers +4.5
It shows where the Giants are in the history of their franchise when they are underdogs at home in the opener against a team that we don’t even know who will start in Week 1 between Sam Darnold and rookie JJ McCarthy. Given the talent surrounding the center, however, Minnesota is right to be seen as the favorite. In fact, this game can be boiled down to Brian Flores unleashing his barrage of attacks on Daniel Jones, who is returning from a season-ending ACL injury.
Projected score: Vikings 24, Giants 17
The choice: Vikings -1.5
The big problems for the Chargers in recent seasons have been wrong and unorthodox decisions at important moments in the game, which ended up leading to defeats. That’s unlikely to happen now that Jim Harbaugh is running the show and will make their exit much more difficult in 2024. Additionally, Justin Herbert vs. Gardner Minshew is a sizable mismatch after the Raiders failed to draft a quarterback early on. the draft. Las Vegas — who went 4-4 ATS on the road last year — will play hard behind Minshew and coach Antonio Pierce, but their talent won’t be able to keep up in the end.
Projected score: Chargers 27, Raiders 20
The choice: Chargers -3
I’m optimistic about Seattle in 2024. The Seahawks have fantastic weapons in Geno Smith and will get a defensive boost with head coach Mike Macdonald taking over. Meanwhile, the Broncos are a team in transition after selecting Bo Nix in the first round of the draft. Sean Payton probably hopes Nix’s great college experience will help him quickly transition to the pros, but probably not as soon as Week 1.
Projected score: Seahawks 28, Broncos 17
The choice: Seahawks -4.5
The Buccaneers got the band back together this offseason, re-signing Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. One of the big questions will be how the offense differs from last year when Liam Coen takes over as offensive coordinator, but Mayfield has prior history with him with the Rams. Washington is breaking into a new regime from top to bottom, including head coach Dan Quinn and quarterback Jayden Daniels. Expecting them to go on the road and get a win seems like a very tall order.
Projected score: Buccaneers 28, Commanders 20
The choice: Buccaneers -4.5
Probably the biggest plot of this game will revolve around Tom Brady’s broadcast debut. That said, both the Cowboys and Browns are in interesting positions heading into the year. Both Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott are playing out the final year of their contracts, while Deshaun Watson is trying to finally live up to the big deal the Browns gave him a few years ago. He is coming off a season-ending shoulder injury in 2023, but if he is fit, the Browns should be competitive. Cleveland went 8-1 ATS at home last season, which was the best in the NFL. Meanwhile, Dallas was 4-5 ATS on the road. I think those tendencies are present in this game and make McCarthy’s seat even hotter in Week 1.
Projected score: Browns 27, Cowboys 20
The choice: Brown +1.5
Rams at Lions (-3.5)
We have the big “Sunday Night Football” showdown to take a bow on the first Sunday of the season. Months after returning for the first time and being cut by his former team, Matthew Stafford is back at Ford Field to face the Lions. Both teams have hopes of a strong playoff run in the NFC, especially Detroit, which appears to be putting all its chips in the middle with this core. This should be a notable game that will likely be determined by a field goal, so we’ll go ahead and take the hook with the Rams. LA was 6-3-1 ATS on the road last season, which ranked among the top third in the league.
Projected score: Lions 27, Rams 24
The choice: Lions -3.5
Jets at 49ers (-6.5), Monday
The NFL is ending its opening week on a spicy note. Aaron Rodgers is returning to the Jets at the same stage where he only missed four plays on the season a year ago. Meanwhile, he faces his hometown team – and the club that abandoned him – in the 49ers. This is also a reunion for many members of the Jets staff who came to New York with former defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. As for San Francisco, the club is coming off a loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. This historically sets them up to lose in this situation. Since Super Bowl XXXIV, the Super Bowl runner-up has been 9-14 SU and 5-18 ATS in Week 1. The Eagles (-3.5) managed to beat and cover in the opener to the Patriots last year, but at teeth skin. I think we see New York come out on a high with their team finally intact with Rodgers under center and keep the game close.
Projected score: 49ers 24, Jets 21
The choice: Jets +6.5
