Brandon Brown
On Wednesday night, the New York Yankees continued their perennial dismantling of the Minnesota Twins with a 4-0 victory at Target Field (score). The Yankees are 119-44 against the Twins since 2002, including the postseason. That’s a pace of 118 wins in 162 games. New York will take a three-game sweep Thursday afternoon.
Marcus Stroman and two relievers combined for Wednesday’s win and Aaron Judge led the offense. He hit a home run – a towering 467-foot blast into the third deck – and three doubles to become the first player with four extra-base hits in a game this season. Judge had a chance to hit a fifth extra-base hit in the ninth, but unfortunately, he walked.
Judge is the first player with four extra-base hits in a game since, well, Aaron Judge last year. He had three homers and a double against the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 22. Judge joins Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth as the only players in Yankees history with multiple games with four extra-base hits. There are some companies there.
“We’re getting there. Not yet,” Judge said Wednesday when asked how he feels at the plate (via MLB.com). “I hope we get there when we talk in November.”
It wasn’t long ago that Judge was struggling so much at the plate that manager Aaron Boone said he wouldn’t rule out a lineup change. This move would almost certainly mean moving Judge and Juan Soto into the 2-3 spots, not moving Judge down the lineup, but Judge’s slow start became a thing with a capital T and Boone was questioned daily.
As recently as May 2, Judge was hitting .197/.331/.393. In the 11 games since then, he has gone 17-for-39 (.436) with seven doubles and five home runs, increasing his season batting line to .255/.386/.540. In two weeks, Judge went from a potential roster move to fifth in the American League in OPS+. Good reminder that a) it’s still pretty early and b) the judge is still very, very good.
Judge was booed at his bobblehead day at Yankee Stadium on April 20, and at the time, we come up with several theories about why he was fighting at the base. Perhaps it was an irreversible age-related decline. Maybe he didn’t like being in Soto’s shadow. Or maybe it was simply a slump, and he was still looking for the right moment after an abdominal injury sidelined him late in spring training.
The biggest difference between Judge now and Judge two weeks ago is that when he’s hitting the shot, he’s hammering it. Not shaking or getting it dirty or showing. Judge’s pop-up rate in the infield was astronomical earlier this season. It was perhaps the best proof that his timing was off. Now, his internal growth rate is back to his career average.
The sweet spot rate is the percentage of balls hit in the launch angle range of 8 to 32 degrees, which is ideal. This is the range in which the line drives and flies balls with a chance of going over the wall. Below 8 degrees and it’s a low ball or low line move. Above 32 degrees and it’s probably a can of corn. This tells us that Judge is hitting the ball on a line much more often than he did earlier this year:
Baseball Sage
Just to put numbers: Judge’s career sweet spot rate is 39.4% and the MLB average is about 33%. He has been in the top 20% of the league in terms of target rate every year from 2021-23. This season, Judge has an overall sweet spot rate of 37.7%, although it was 35.4% in April and 47.2% in May. So yes, Judge is hitting the ball at the line much more often than he did a few weeks ago.
The Yankees survived Judge’s slow start because Soto the super former AL MVP favorite, can carry a team on his own and because he managed an excellent shot even with Gerrit Cole on the injured list. Make no mistake, Judge is the engine that drives the Yankees. Without him performing at a high level, a division title or deep postseason run would be nearly impossible.
According to OPS, April was the worst month of Judge’s career, with at least 120 plate appearances. He wasn’t hitting excessively and was still putting up exit velocities that few people in the game could match. Judge wasn’t producing, but he wasn’t outperformed either. Now he appears to be back on track at the plate and is again a threat to score a ball every time he enters the box.
“Getting it right is difficult, even for the big ones. Even the guys who have the best years and win MVPs, there are still ups and downs,” Boone said Wednesday (via MLB.com). “I think it’s more just showing up at the right time, recognizing the pitches and making your swing. He’s done a great job here the last few weeks.”
