Christian Smith
The tens of thousands of primary votes cast in favor of Nikki Haley in recent months underscore the apparent discontent many Republicans feel with former President Trump as their presumptive nominee, raising alarms for his campaign and fueling questions about whether he needs do more. to unify the different factions of the party.
Haley recently racked up significant votes in the Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia Republican primaries, which were closed to Republican voters — meaning that, unlike some previous primaries, Democrats and independents were unable to participate.
It was just the latest indication that there is a significant portion of the party willing to vote for Haley even though she hasn’t been a candidate since March, leaving many Republicans pondering how she will exert her influence and what Trump will do – if anything – to appeal to these voters.
“She’s seeing a consistent message coming out of the primary election results,” said Dave Wilson, a South Carolina-based Republican strategist. “There’s a significant portion of people, Republican primary voters, who say they don’t want Donald Trump.”
Trump and his allies argue that Haley is winning relatively large shares of the vote in the open primary, where Democrats and independents can vote in the GOP primary. But other Republicans argue that the votes in her favor are still a red flag.
And in the case of Tuesday’s results, Haley’s votes in all three states came entirely from registered Republicans.
“Many believe these votes are an anti-Trump vote, but there are many who have aligned themselves with his policies and style as a politician,” said Ashley Davis, a Republican strategist. “These are solid conservative Republicans who will need to break Trump’s path.”
“We have to remember that in general elections it doesn’t matter if voters are registered [Republican], [Democrat]or [independent],” she continued. “They can vote for whoever they want. And as we know, there are many voters who are not enthusiastic about any candidate.”
Candidates receiving support after dropping out of presidential races is far from unheard of. In the 2012 Republican primaries, former candidates like Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich received percentages — sometimes in the double digits — even after Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) won the nomination that year.
And Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) still had decent showings during the 2020 primary season after President Biden mathematically clinched the nomination.
But Haley at times approached or even exceeded 20% of the vote in some states, a surprisingly high number. And the fact that Haley has not yet at least supported Trump for president further amplifies the fact that Republicans apparently are not prepared to give their support to the presumptive candidate either.
She got some of her highest scores on Tuesday, with 20 percent of the vote in Maryland and 18 percent in Nebraska in the latest vote count. This happened a week later she reached almost 22 percent in Indiana.
And Haley received more than 100,000 votes in each of the country’s two key battleground states. Arizona in March and Pennsylvania in April.
Trump Brushed the idea of running the risk of losing Haley voters on Thursday, saying in an interview with Scripps News that “she got relatively few voters.”
“And all these voters are coming to me, and you might have a lot of Democrats there because they have a very complicated little system,” Trump said. “But these voters are coming to me.”
Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told The Hill in a statement that Trump is “building a historic, unified political movement” and has more than 90 percent approval among Republicans. She also pointed to polls that show Trump has made gains with traditional Democratic constituencies such as black and Hispanic Americans.
“Anyone who believes in securing the border, rebuilding the economy, restoring American energy dominance and ending the wars that Joe Biden has created around the world is welcome to join President Trump’s team,” Leavitt said. .
However, other Republicans say it’s not necessarily a safe bet that all of Haley’s supporters will come out in favor of Trump in November.
“Everything we see in this race is based on one of the candidate’s weaknesses. This is a big problem for Trump,” said Doug Heye, a Republican Party strategist. “Even if the majority of Haley voters naturally turn to Trump – what will happen – what about the rest? It’s unclear whether there is a plan to win over Haley voters who happily donned “permanently banned” t-shirts. In nearby states, they can be important.”
Republican strategist Rina Shah said the votes Haley received were a “statement” that many voters still view her favorably and are waiting to decide what to do.
“They understand that here is a person who probably behaved as perfectly as he could after leaving the presidential race,” she said, referring to Haley. “She didn’t feel the need to support Trump for the sake of it, simply because he has an ‘R’ next to his name.”
Shah added that the votes for Haley are a combination of a declaration and “delusion” that Trump and Biden will not be the nation’s choices in the general election. She said Haley managed to capture the attention of even the center-left while she was running for president.
“At the end of the day, it’s the people who feel like this Republican Party could have done better,” she said.
Although Biden did not personally contact Haley or her voters, his campaign left the door open. In March, the president’s re-election campaign released an ad aimed at Haley’s supporters titled “Join Us.” The 30-second commercial featured instances in which Trump insulted Haley and her supporters.
Some polls suggest there may be votes to be won for Biden among Haley’s supporters. One Emerson College Research released in March after Haley suspended her campaign found that 63 percent of Haley’s supporters said they would support Biden, while 27 percent said they would support Trump.
But other Republicans are skeptical, given Biden’s stance on key issues.
“I think a lot of his voters are still solid Republicans and are concerned about the economy, borders and crime,” Davis said. “Even if they weren’t early Trump voters in the primaries, they know he will be better than President Biden on these issues.”
Shah said these voters won’t necessarily vote for Biden, but will likely take a long time to decide who to support.
“The big picture is that it cannot be extrapolated as a safe Biden vote,” she said. “We simply don’t know enough about this group.”
