Blake Davis
LOUISVILLE – Saturday at Valhalla Golf Club was electrifying. After Friday’s bizarre round, which began with the world’s No. 1 player in prison and ended with him shooting 66, crowds flocked to the 2024 PGA Championship to cheer on Scottie Scheffler. What they got was his first round over par in 266 days as he retreated from contention, but the consolation prize was great: one of the most grouped and loaded leaderboards of recent championships.
At the end of the third round, Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele co-lead at 15 under, but there are 13 players within five shots of the lead. That’s a big number, especially on a golf course that’s playing near the mid-60s. In other words, expect fireworks until the final tee lands on Sunday.
With Scheffler out of contention after his 73, and Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy too far behind to seriously compete in the final round, let’s rank the players in order from most likely to win on Sunday to least likely.
1. Collin Morikawa (-15)
Odds: +240 – The two-time major champion will be looking to make it three in his first 18 matches, which is a historic pace ahead of Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth. Morikawa has been the second-worst putter of anyone currently in the top eight, which is encouraging as far as his prospects of winning on Sunday are concerned.
He will have to do this with steering precision because he is almost last in distance. When juxtaposed with the way Bryson DeChambeau is playing, it shows how many different ways there are to win a major tournament. Morikawa will have to continue hitting the fairways on Sunday, but the conditions at Valhalla – golf with dartboards – are perfect for him. He should emerge with third place on Sunday, although something to keep an eye on is the fact that his short game has been unreal as he is 15 of 19 in the fight. That’s hard to maintain over 72 holes.
2. Xander Schauffele (-15)
Odds: +260 – Here’s a stat that surprised me: Morikawa is 1-of-4 (.250) in closing a 54-hole lead as a pro, while Schauffele is 3-of-9 (.334). This is actually a good spot for Schauffele, who looks uncomfortable up front. It should benefit him to be alongside someone equally talented as they navigate a course they know must be torched to get victory. Schauffele sometimes has trouble understanding the rhythms of a major, so not having to judge when to press and when to retreat – because everyone is going to be shooting all day – should really do him a favor. If Schauffele is going to win a major tournament — and he eventually will — this is probably how he’ll do it.
3. Bryson DeChambeau (-13)
Odds: +600 – The 2020 US Open champion is playing some of the best golf of his life and made an important eagle hole on the 18th on Saturday to get into one of the final doubles on Sunday. He is leading the field in driving distance and is fifth in strokes gained off the tee so far. It’s a great setup for him, and even when he misses the fairways – as long as he doesn’t miss them by too large a margin – his speed can neutralize some of the denser roughs in Valhalla. He will win or come very close to it.
4. Viktor Hovland (-13)
Odds: +700 – Did anyone really predict this? Hovland was incredible for basically the first time in 2024. It was a horrible year for someone who was probably the best player in the world for the last six months of 2023. Hovland has no top 15, and his 0.66 strokes gained is by far the worst of the last six years. But in a week when he met with coach Joe Mayo, Hovland has thrived and is currently seventh in approach play. Now he finds himself in the same situation as a year ago, on the verge of winning the PGA Championship. I don’t think his swing changes will withstand the Sunday pressure of a major, but he’s certainly moving more in the right direction.
5. Sahith Theegala (-14)
Odds: +650 – Do I want Sahith Theegala to win this major championship? I make. It would be incredible if he electrifies Louisville on Sunday and comes home with his first major. Do I really believe this will happen? I am not. Theegala is in the top five in this field in placing, and he is not riding as well as he should to maintain the lead and claim victory on Sunday. Even so, he will empty his tank in search of victory, which will be fascinating to watch and experience in the final round.
6. Shane Lowry (-13)
Odds: +1200 – It’s not so much that it’s difficult to follow a total heater as he found on Saturday with his 62 with another great round the next day (although it will be difficult), but even more so because Lowry is the worst player from tee to green in the current top 10 – and actually not even close. Sure, he could just turn the lights out for two consecutive rounds over the weekend and win this tournament, but there isn’t much historical precedence.
7. Justin Thomas (-10)
Odds: +6000 – I wouldn’t normally put him in this position given how far behind he is – eight behind Morikawa and Schauffele. However, Thomas has won a seven-deep (!) PGA the last two years, and is also leading the field from tee to green this week despite being nearly last in putting. It has 64 written on it and he knows it.
“Everyone has a scenario in mind about possibly winning the tournament, but how that happens, you don’t know,” Thomas said. “I feel like I’ve done the most important part of putting myself at least in attacking range and I’m going to need a really good front nine tomorrow to work into the mix. how I’m playing, and it would be good to have a chance there on defense.”
8. Justin Rose (-12)
Odds: +3500 – See all the reasons above for Lowry, but include the fact that Rose is a response to his Ryder Cup teammate. When Lowry finished on Saturday, Rose embraced him with a big hug to celebrate what was a best-ball 60 in the third round. This was probably, unfortunately for both of them (although quite enjoyable!), the most memorable moment they will have on the 18th green this week.
9.Robert MacIntyre (-12)
Odds: +3500 – Valhalla doesn’t exactly scream “Bob MacIntyre is going to win his first major,” but here we are. He has been incredible from tee to green this week and is doing it with length off the tee. It’s hard to see him overcome all the horses in front of him, but at least he’s put himself in a situation where it’s conceivable that he’ll do something silly and get his first big horse.
