Caleb Harris
NFL Season win totals are some of the most fun stocks to bet on – it’s a season-long bet with week-to-week intensity because of how important each game is to the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports gambling, winning totals have been released for some time now, but we can’t really get crystallized, concrete numbers until the NFL Schedule is released.
With the schedule set and every angle of the 2024 NFL season under full scrutiny, we can finally start betting on season-long win totals. I’ll revisit them in August before the season starts, but we’ll try to find some value early in the offseason.
I am using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you should research and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check out the rest of the divisions here as soon as they are released:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we begin, a few quick notes. First, we are picking all teams, but not betting on all teams. Second, any best bets will be indicated in bold, etc. Third, you should probably avoid betting on overs at this point, due to how quickly injuries can change a player’s fortunes. NFL teams.
Let’s go.
Above 10.5 (+112) / Below 10.5 (-130)
Personally, I think the Bills are underrated this season in terms of public perception. Everyone is treating the Bills like they’re a crater this year, especially since they lost Stefon Diggs. The losses on defense are substantially more concerning, although they did a good job of restocking the cupboard in the offseason. By the way, Buffalo still has Josh Allen, even if their weapons are depleted. It almost seems like the Bills saw the Chiefs win without a true No. 1 wide receiver and said “hey, let’s try that too” even though they don’t need to play All-Madden without one Super Bowl win in tow. If you count the playoff loss to KC, the Bills had a 6-7 record in one-score games, including two overtime losses. The points difference suggested a 12-win team and they only won 11, so there is room for positive regression. Dalton Kincaid could be the focal point of the passing game and this could be an offense that runs the ball a lot more under Joe Brady as well. I’m leaning toward the current number and price, but I wouldn’t actually bet on it right now.
Lean: Less than 10.5 (-130)
Above 9.5 (-130) / Below 9.5 (+110)
Here we are again, with a total of 9.5 wins, although this time the off-season hype was quite subdued. Last year, it was non-stop coverage by the Jets until Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles on the fourth snap of the season. And once again, it all comes down to Rodgers’ health behind an offensive line that was questionable early in the offseason before Joe Douglas added Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses to shore up the weak spot. The Jets GM isn’t done — and this could affect the health and contractual status of these free agents — adding Olu Fashanu as the team’s first-round pick. Fashanu starting the season at LT or RT is a very good or very bad thing, to be confirmed. The defense should be strong once again and Garrett Wilson/Breece Hall taking another step forward as young skill position players give this team a real advantage. But once again, what matters is that Rodgers plays the full season, which is why taking over in May is simply too difficult to do.
Lean: Less than 9.5 (+110)
Over 9.5 (-135) / Under (+110)
A great example of why schedule is important to win totals, the Miami Dolphins are off to a strong start the last few years and should be back strong in 2024. Tua Tagovailoa and company have three of their first four games at home, have added more speed this offseason and must be an offensive force from the start. But the imbalance in the calendar means the Finns will have four or more games in cold weather after November 1, something that has plagued the team in recent years. There are concerns about the pass rush heading into the year thanks to season-ending injuries to Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips, and the team is also implementing another new defensive scheme. Miami also lost Robert Hunt and Christian Wilkins in free agency; their absences were felt on the offensive and defensive lines, respectively. I would lean toward Miami if it were September, but right now the number is too high, especially with Tua’s contract situation still up in the air.
Lean: Less than 9.5 (+110)
Over 4.5 (-160) / Below 4.5 (+135)
The Patriots’ profile is one of the worst teams in all of football. New England is tied with the Panthers for the lowest win total in the league, largely because of offensive issues. Drake Maye is in the lineup as the No. 3 overall pick, but DraftKings has a “Week 1 start” market with Jacoby Brissett installed as the heavy favorite, with the general consensus that Maye will sit for a while to start the season. Regardless of who is at the center, there are many other problems. Kendrick Bourne and DeMario Douglas are the best pass catchers, unless rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker step up. We’re talking about a second and fourth round pick here. The offensive line is definitely a weak spot. Defensively, the Patriots could be as good as they have been in recent years. Or — and hear me out — there could be a downturn on defense (and in general) with Bill Belichick leaving New England after a 20-plus season. Belchick has made a lot of mistakes in recent years, particularly on offense, but let’s not pretend he isn’t an elite football coach. Alex Van Pelt should be an upgrade as both OC and NFL teams can have five wins, so I’m not inclined to accept the under here. But the over at that price is simply unbeatable, especially without knowing who will play quarterback.
Lean: Less than 4.5 (+135)
