NFL 2024 rookie QB outlook: Best- and worst-case scenarios for Caleb Williams, other Year 1 signal-callers

What’s the worst that could happen? A fair question to ask when a rookie quarterback is thrust into a NFL field in his rookie season, especially if most believe he is playing too soon.

Yet NFL Coaches are people just like the rest of us, and society today isn’t too keen on waiting to get their young quarterbacks into a regular season game. And as we’ve seen with the likes of CJ Stroud, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow, sometimes rookies can experience the best-case scenario in Year 1.

In this article, I went deep and very specific in my determination of the best and worst case scenarios for 2024 rookie quarterbacks, just like I did last year for Bryce Young, Stroud, Richardson and Co. As you’ll see below, the numbers are based on whether these quarterbacks had a chance to play considerable snaps in their first seasons – which, of course, is not a guarantee for all these passers were drawn up in early to late April.

For the sake of this article, let’s assume that all of the quarterbacks included will have a considerable opportunity. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are key to that. Drake Maye, probably. JJ McCarthy feels like the classic “he won’t need to play until December” rookie who will be on the field sooner or later and Bo Nix, almost by default because of the rest of the Broncos’ quarterback depth chart, will play the vast majority. part of his debut season. From there, I took liberty as to how much above or below average I think each quarterback could fall in the best and worst case scenario.

To start, I found expectations parameters for these first-year passers. As a baseline, I used the seasons of the 18 quarterbacks who threw at least 200 passes as rookies over the last five seasons. Well, actually, that’s 17 passers plus Brock Purdy. I included his gaudy stats in his first year in San Francisco for the group-wide average, even though he only threw 170 passes in his first year. NFL season because he has essentially set a new standard for rookie quarterback efficiency in 2022 and is one of the most fascinating young quarterbacks in the game.

Here’s a look:

Now, in a perfect world, we would have a much larger sample size to conduct this study. However, NFL The studies are not like most other studies in that a larger sample size can actually be counterproductive due to how quickly the game changes for everyone on the field, especially the quarterbacks. Including passersby from before, say, 2019 seems too outdated to be predictive.

To put the averages into context, the 61.5% completion was almost identical to Matthew Stafford’s last year. The 6.8 yards per attempt number was just below the 6.9 YPA of Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert and Justin Fields in 2023. The 3.8 average TD% was right between Trevor Lawrence (3.7%) and Geno Smith (4.0%) per season ago. The 2.2% interception rate was between Stafford and Patrick Mahomes. The collective rating of 82.5 would have been right between Gardner Minshew (84.6) and Fields (86.3), and the 7.8% sack rate was in the range of Lamar Jackson (7.5%) and Jake Browning (9.0%).

Now that you have genuine, stat-based expectations to reference, let’s look at the best and worst-case scenarios for 2024 rookies.

(Before we start… If you’re wondering if they’re worth checking out and if they’re predictive, here was Bryce Young’s projection before his rookie season with the Panthers, alongside his actual Year 1 stats.

• Young’s worst-case scenario projection: 60% completion, 6.1 yards per attempt, 2,440 passing yards, 10 TD passes, 12 INTs, 32 sacks, 74.1 rating
• Young’s actual 2023 season: 59.8% completion, 5.5 yards per attempt, 2,877 passing yards, 11 TD passes, 10 INTs, 62 sacks, 73.7 rating

Best possible scenario: 65% completion, 7.5 yards per attempt, 3,750 passing yards, 25 TD passes, 5 INTs, 28 sacks, 100.0 rating
Worst scenario: 60% completion, 6.6 yards per attempt, 3,300 passing yards, 17 TD passes, 13 INTs, 45 sacks, 82.5 rating

CJ Stroud has thrown 499 passes in 2023 in his dazzling rookie NFL campaign, so I’m using 500 attempts as the benchmark for Williams in these projections. Stroud missed two games last season due to injury.

Since I believe Williams will play the field relatively often – as Stroud did – I don’t foresee, even in the end, a super high completion rate for the Bears rookie. But the yards per attempt could be absolutely robust, while the sack rate could be low, given how ridiculously agile he is when the pressure mounts.

Williams is a very accurate thrower and has an excellent receiving trio at his disposal. I would be completely shocked if his completion rate was less than 60%. I simply couldn’t project anything below that. And many of his low-cost projections are closer to average than Wilson’s for 2021.

Best possible scenario: 67% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 4,015 passing yards, 28 TD passes, 8 INTs, 44 sacks, 99.1 rating
Worst case scenario: 61% completion, 6.3 yards per attempt, 3,630 passing yards, 22 TD passes, 13 INTs, 55 sacks, 83.8 rating

I don’t feel risky in suggesting that the Bears’ defense is ahead of the Commanders, which should lead to more pass attempts for Daniels in some more recovery situations than Williams. Therefore, his projections were based on 550 attempts as a rookie. In this five-year sample, Lawrence has the most attempts in rookie years, 602, for perspective.

For as magnificent a field goal shooter as Daniels was at LSU, I envision more high-percentage throws in Washington’s passing game in 2024, which should increase his completion rate. In fact, in that reception room is Terry McLaurin and a collection of question marks and uncertain merchandise.

And the only clear weakness Daniels demonstrated as a prospect was how often pressures turned into sacks, which is why both of his sack projections are quite high.

Best possible scenario: 62% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 3,240 passing yards, 23 TD passes, 10 INTs, 29 sacks, 91.5 rating
Worst scenario: 58% completion, 6.4 yards per attempt. 2,700 passing yards, 17 TD passes, 14 INTs, 38 sacks, 75 rating

Based on Maye’s 450 passes in his rookie season. Although the Patriots are probably behind more than they are leading, I expect the defense to keep them in games, thus giving offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt ample reason to run the football in throwback games from 20 years ago, that New England will try to win by 17- 14 without putting too much on Maye’s plate in Year 1.

I believe in his arm talent and quarterback amnesia, so there is a world in which Maye lifts the Patriots’ recently stagnant passing game. There is also a world in which Maye is hampered by a lack of top talent and youth in the squad.

Best possible scenario: 67% completion, 8.0 yards per attempt, 3,360 passing yards, 21 TD passes, 8 INTs, 25 sacks, 100.8 rating
Worst scenario: 62% completion, 6.7 yards per attempt, 1,407 passing yards, 6 TD passes, 5 INTs, 17 sacks, 81.1 rating

At best, I made 420 attempts for McCarthy, which is an average of 30 attempts in 14 contests. No one should be shocked if Sam Darnold is pulled after three games in 2024. Remember, he also has to clearly beat out a new first-round pick in camp, which in my opinion is far from a guarantee, although we ‘ I’ll hear all about the Vikings taking it slow with McCarthy until the start of camp.

Given the time-tested excellence of the Shanahan-based offense — and how well Kevin O’Connell has operated with Kirk Cousins, Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens in 2023 — McCarthy could be the group’s most efficient passer from a yards-per-attempt perspective.

At worst, I decided on 210 attempts for McCarthy, which equates to 30 attempts in seven games. And that would represent a two-tier worst-case scenario for the rookie — he doesn’t look ready in camp or the preseason, and Darnold plays passable football for 10 games.

In addition to the schematic advantage McCarthy has in Minnesota, he also finds himself with a luxurious offensive line and skill position group. Your completion rate will be no less than 60% and your worst YPA will be close to the group average.

Best possible scenario: 65% completion, 7.2 yards per attempt, 3,780 passing yards, 26 TD passes, 8 INTs, 26 sacks, 96.3 rating
Worst scenario: 58% completion, 6.2 yards per attempt, 3,255 passing yards, 18 TD passes, 12 INTs, 32 sacks, 78.2 rating

I threw 525 pass attempts for both scenarios for Nix — close to the 521 attempts Mac Jones threw in 2021. Either way, the Broncos are running with Nix in 2024. They need to do it.

While I’m absolutely with everyone who believes Sean Payton will provide Nix with a very quarterback-friendly system in 2024, the rookie will eventually have to stretch defenses vertically, and I didn’t think he was overly accurate downfield when he wasn’t throwing to open receivers in Oregon. And that matches my projection of a lower “best case” completion rate than you expected. At best, Payton should keep him fairly efficient at throwing the ball.

On the low end of the spectrum, Nix won’t have a horrible season because of the isolation Payton can provide, but the receiving group isn’t formidable and I think his lack of top-tier physical talent can hurt him most of the time. Either way, it’s not a huge range for Nix, which is probably a good thing.