Caleb Harris
NFL Season win totals are some of the most fun stocks to bet on – it’s a season-long bet with weekly intensity because of how important each game is to the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports gambling, winning totals have been released for some time now, but we can’t really get crystallized, concrete numbers until the NFL Schedule is released.
With the schedule set and every angle of the 2024 NFL season under full scrutiny, we can finally start betting on season-long win totals. I’ll revisit them in August before the season starts, but we’ll try to find some value early in the offseason.
I am using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you should research and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check out the rest of the divisions here as soon as they are released:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we begin, a few quick notes. First, we are picking all teams, but not betting on all teams. Second, any best bets will be indicated in bold, etc. Third, you should probably avoid betting on overs at this point, due to how quickly injuries can change a player’s fortunes. NFL teams.
Let’s go.
Baltimore crows
Over 11.5 (+125) / Under 11.5 (-145)
This is a huge total for a team that has experienced a lot of turnover this offseason. It’s true that Lamar Jackson and the skill position guys are largely the same in their second year under Todd Monken, with one notable addition: Derrick Henry. This is a major addition and if Henry is still the same, it could be a dynamic boost. But attrition on the offensive line is a concern, even though the Ravens now have an all-homegrown unit blocking up front. They’re right about drafting and developing often, and if that’s the case here, the offense won’t miss a beat. But it’s fair to be worried. Defensively there are even more losses. Mike Macdonald is gone; Zach Orr has received rave reviews, but it’s a lot to ask for a first-year DC to replace what Macdonald did before leaving to coach the Seahawks. Patrick Queen, Geno Stone and Jadeveon Clowney also left in free agency. In fact, they underperformed last year’s point differential and had a history of losing in one-score games. I wouldn’t bet on a massive regression, not with this coaching staff and a two-time MVP. There are too many question marks to assume football’s highest preseason win total in May.
Slim: Over 11.5 (+125)
Cincinnati Bengals
Above 10.5 (-125) / Below 10.5 (+110)
Will Joe Burrow be healthy in 2024? It’s probably not what Simple, but it sure feels that way. The Bengals still managed to win nine games last year despite Burrow starting the season with a calf injury and finishing the year on IR with a wrist injury. Add in the ACL tear in his rookie year and the random appendix issue before 2022 and there is viable concern about Burrow staying healthy for a full year. Vegas isn’t that concerned, clearly, with a hefty, double-digit, very strong win total. It makes sense: Trent Brown and Amarius Mims added to the offensive line gives the Bengals some absurdly massive tackles. Zach Moss replacing Joe Mixon could be an upgrade. Tee Higgins is in the group…sort of…he really needs to play. Geno Stone, Vonn Bell and Sheldon Rankins are all sneaky veterans on the defensive side of the ball. I’m worried about losing Brian Callahan to the Titans more than most, I think, especially what it means for Cincy. But the Bengals host the Pats, Panthers and Commanders along with a trip to the Chiefs to start the season, so they should be fine in terms of getting off to a good start. The Titans, Browns and Broncos at the bottom of the schedule should have Cincy contending for the playoffs again this year. But again, I would hold off on assuming that until we see more of Burrow this offseason.
Lean: Over 10.5 (-125)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Above 8.5 (+125) / Below 8.5 (-150)
The Steelers still went over .500 under Mike Tomlin last year and even stumbled in the playoffs. But there were still underlying concerns and the organization released OC Mike Canada and sent former first-round pick Kenny Pickett to Philadelphia while bringing in the combination of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields this offseason. It’s a really fun combination in theory, but it’s also hard to imagine how Wilson would help if Fields were to win the job. Arthur Smith is the new offensive coordinator, so upgrades to the offensive line and the Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren duo could be much more important than who is actually snapping the ball. Pittsburgh opens the season with the ultimate Revenge Game combo (at Atlanta, at Denver) for Smith and Wilson and these early games could point to the direction of the season in a very tough division. Pittsburgh closes with Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals; It’s as brutal a stretch as you’ll see in the NFL all season. Adding Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson turns this linebacking corps into a force, but the defensive line (particularly Cam Heyward and TJ Watt) will need to be healthy to chase another playoff spot. The energy underneath is absurd right now, but I would certainly lean that way.
Lean: Less than 8.5 (-150)
Cleveland Browns
Above 8.5 (-130) / Below 8.5 (+110)
On the surface, everything in Cleveland comes down to Deshaun Watson. Can he actually perform at a Pro Bowl level for the first time since he was traded to the Browns? I think it’s more interesting to imagine how the run game works with offensive line guru Bill Callahan leaving for Tennessee and Nick Chubb coming off a brutal leg injury. Jerome Ford is capable, but if the run game takes a step back and Watson doesn’t take a step forward, the offense could struggle to get going, even with Jerry Jeudy added to Amari Cooper and David Njoku. Defensively, Jim Schwartz’s unit has the personnel to maintain last year’s success. But the Browns’ defensive struggles on the road are a red flag for consistency in 2024. Cleveland is dealing with the same problem as Pittsburgh: Their last four games are against the Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins and Ravens. The Browns and Steelers also face off before the four-game stretch – these two teams could control the AFC wild card race! The Browns dramatically overcame their win differential and went 6-2 in one-score games last year. They are considered a top tier team, especially if you don’t want to believe that Watson will find his old form in Houston.
Choice: Under 8.5 (+110)
