MLB trends: Fluke injuries, a PED suspension and everything that’s gone wrong for the Reds so far

This was supposed to be the year the Cincinnati Reds got back into contention. A year ago, the Reds graduated many of their touted prospects to the big leagues and almost all performed immediately. The result was an 82-80 record, a modest showing that nevertheless represented a 20-win improvement over 2022. Most importantly, there were top-notch youth throughout the roster.

“Everyone is working really hard to put the best team possible on the field,” Reds manager David Bell said in January (via MLB.com). “We’re adding a really great group of guys who have shown they’re talented enough but do other things really well. That contributes to the success.”

Instead of taking the expected step forward, the Reds entered the game Tuesday in the NL Central cellar 19-28. Their minus-7 run differential suggests they played better than their record indicates, but ultimately wins and losses are important, not run differential. The Reds were also 14-10 at one point. Since April 25, they are 5-18, the worst record in the game.

The 19-28 start did real damage to Cincinnati’s postseason chances. SportsLine Model says his postseason chances have dropped from 22.4% on Opening Day to 6.8% now. FanGraphs agrees: 25.9% before the season to 7.3% now. There are still more than four months to play, so the season is not over yet, but the Reds now face an uphill climb.

Here’s a look at what went wrong for the Reds this season and in particular during their ugly 5-18 run.

1. Bad luck injuries

Injuries are part of the game and no one feels sorry for the Reds. The Milwaukee Brewers have been without Devin Williams and Brandon Woodruff all year. The Chicago Cubs lost Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki simultaneously. We could go on and on. Every team has injuries, just like the Reds, although in Cincinnati’s case the most significant injuries were pure bad luck.

On March 18, Matt McLain injured his shoulder while trying to catch a ball during spring training and eventually needed surgery to repair his labrum. The team hopes he will play again this season, but there is no certainty. McLain was Cincinnati’s best overall player as a rookie last year and he will miss most of this season because he dived for a ball in the backfield. Hard.

Two days before McLain injured his shoulder, 2023 center fielder TJ Friedl broke his wrist diving for a ball. He recovered, returned to the team on May 7, and five days later was hit by a pitch that broke his left thumb. Friedl is expected to miss 4-5 weeks, meaning he will miss most of the first half due to accidental injuries on common baseball plays.

A year ago, Friedl (3.8 WAR) and McLain (3.7 WAR) were two of the top 25 players in the National League. Both provided a huge impact at the plate, in the field and on the bases (Friedl is the best guy in the game). But sometimes you land on the wrong path and are out of action for weeks. Difficult breaks for the Reds.

2. Suspension from Mars

Noelvi Marte, the centerpiece of the Luis Castillo trade to the Seattle Mariners, made his MLB debut last August and was impressive, hitting .316/.366/.456 with three home runs in 35 games. He played solid third base and combined above-average contact rates with high-quality exit velocities. Marte was one of the organization’s top prospects and it was evident watching him play.

So Mars was suspended 80 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug in March. He could return in Cincinnati’s 81st game on June 26, but would not be eligible to play in the postseason if the Reds qualify. The Reds lost their starting third baseman to suspension. Add in McLain’s injury and the Reds lost half their infield before Opening Day even began.

What does the suspension mean for Mars? The truth is, nobody knows. How much have PEDs improved your performance, if at all? Did he use the banned substance intentionally? How long had he been using it? Marte, like all players who are arrested for PEDs, will be looked upon harshly in the court of public opinion, and that is something he will have to live with. That’s how these things happen.

Before the suspension, Marte looked like a rising star who should pair with McLain and Elly De La Cruz to give the Reds one of the best and most exciting infields in the game. There is now a lot of uncertainty surrounding Mars. What kind of player will he be after the suspension, how will the layoff affect him, etc. The Reds clearly miss him on the pitch. This is obvious.

3. Young hitters don’t step forward

The biggest reason the Reds have fallen in recent weeks is their attack, or lack thereof. During their promising 14-10 start, the Reds averaged 5.29 runs scored per game and 4.29 runs allowed per game, both better than average rates. Since then, they have averaged just 2.96 runs scored (!) per game while allowing 4.30 runs. Execution prevention is OK. It’s the offense.

Offenses are left in a panic, sometimes even for weeks on end, but what’s most worrying for the Reds is that the young sluggers who were so important to the team’s revival last season have all gone backwards this season. Everyone except De La Cruz, in fact. He’s been depressed lately, but he’s been doing really well overall, and he can even steal 100 bases. De La Cruz’s escape is at full speed.

The rest of the young Reds? It is not good. Here are the numbers for three of their hitters entering the game on Tuesday:

xwOBA, or expected weighted average on base, is a good quick and dirty measure of contact quality using exit velocity and launch angle, and in some cases, sprint velocity. It scales to on-base percentage (.400 is elite, .300 is not so good, etc.) and gives a decent idea of ​​how well the batter is hitting the ball. Young Reds are generally making worse contacts in 2024.

Steer is less of a concern because his plate discipline and quality of contact are intact. He’s just not getting the results you’d hope for with that skill set (especially lately). Encarnacion-Strand recently went on the injured list with a broken wrist (another pitching injury), but before that, opposing pitchers exploited his aggression and made him chase his pitch.

Benson’s problems are twofold. He crushed right-handed pitchers last season (.297/.389/.549) and rarely played against lefties (just 44 plate appearances). This season, Benson also isn’t hitting righties (.225/.301/.450), and because of Friedl’s injury, he’s had to play lefties more than planned. He already has 49 starts against lefties, surpassing last year’s total.

The young Reds are not the only ones to blame. It’s late May and Jonathan India is below .300. Jake Fraley, like Benson, isn’t hitting as well against righties. Jeimer Candelario, even though he’s been better lately, looks more like the player who was undrafted by the Detroit Tigers in 2022 than the player who was coveted at the trade deadline with the Washington Nationals in 2023.

Cincinnati has started 10 different players at DH, most in baseball, and among those 10 are backup catcher Luke Maile and journeymen Conner Capel and Mike Ford. Ford opted out of his minor league contract on May 4, the Reds waived him, and four days later re-signed him. Ford went from Triple-A to being released to batting third in the majors in four days.

De La Cruz (132 OPS+), Tyler Stephenson (131 OPS+) and Steer (101 OPS+) are the only Reds players with an OPS above league average this season, and Steer barely manages it. There are underperforming players at every level. When one or two guys have a bad year, that’s just baseball. When it’s almost the entire cast, it suggests there’s an organizational problem.

4. Late problems

Edwin Díaz isn’t the only Díaz brother going through tough times in 2024. Alexis Díaz, two and a half years younger than Edwin, allowed 14 runs in 16 2/3 innings entering the game on Tuesday, including eight runs in 4 2/3 entries in Could. Setup men Fernando Cruz, Emilio Pagán and Lucas Sims also inflated ERAs. They’re all either walking too much, giving up too many home runs, or both.

That’s 70 innings of pain in the bullpen right there. I guess the good news is that Reds relievers have allowed just 26% of inherited runners to score, the fourth-lowest rate in baseball, although those relievers are making up for that by allowing their own runners to score. The Reds are 20th in bullpen ERA (4.18) and 29th in ERA in the seventh inning or later (5.05). Disgusting.

The recent 5-18 stretch featured nine one-run shutouts and nine shutouts when the Reds had the lead or the game was tied in the sixth inning or later. As much as the offense has struggled, Cincinnati has been in a position to win games recently. They just couldn’t get the job done. The bullpen doesn’t deserve all the blame, but it certainly deserves some of it.

The good news for the Reds is that it’s still early days and the wild card race should be wide open in the National League. The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies aim to reach the postseason. To get one of the two remaining wild card spots, the Reds will have to defeat the likes of the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, etc.

As ugly as their 5-18 run has been — and it has been ugly, especially offensively — the Reds still have a path to the postseason. The opening pitch was strong. Now they just need to get their offense on track and their bullpen in order, which is easier said than done. Young non-Elly hitters taking a step back should worry the front office. These guys are the key to discord and they are heading in the wrong direction.