MLB trends: Shohei Ohtani’s new trick, where Randy Arozarena hurts most and Jurickson Profar’s magic leg kick

The 2024 MLB season is two months away and sample sizes are not what smaller. Those early-season heat waves are becoming bona fide outbreaks and those early-season cold snaps are becoming worrisome signs of decline. With that in mind, here are three MLB trends to watch as June approaches.

Ohtani using the opposite field

Shohei Ohtani is so good he’s almost unpleasant. He is one of the best hitters in the world and, when his health permits, he is also one of the best pitchers in the game. Ohtani is currently recovering from his second Tommy John surgery and is unable to pitchbut he’s hitting an incredible .329/.395/.606 with 13 homers despite a hitless showing in Tuesday’s doubleheader with the Mets.

Since being MVP is no longer enough, Ohtani added a new tool to his resume this season: hitting to the opposite field. Or, more accurately, hit more successfully to the opposite field. Ohtani doesn’t pull the ball any less often. He’s just hitting with more authority when he hits to the opposite field. Here are his numbers hitting the opposite field:

Ohtani already has 20 opposing hits in the field this season. He had 25 all of last year. And to be clear, Ohtani wasn’t a dead hitter who rarely used the opposite field before 2024. He was a great opposite field hitter who elevated his game and became one of the best opposite field hitters in the sport. Ohtani can still pull the ball and put it into orbit. Now he’s also attacking left field.

Simply put, Ohtani is closing the gaps in his game. Before, you could throw it away and have a reasonable chance of limiting the damage. Only four of his league-leading 44 home runs went to the opposite field last season. This season, two of Ohtani’s 13 home runs have gone to the opposite field, and he is looking for a higher average in that direction. He became an even better hitter.

Arozarena Contact Issues

Now that we’re approaching June, it’s safe to say that Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena has been one of the most disappointing players in baseball this season. He owns a .159/.255/.313 line with eight home runs and recently fell to sixth in the lineup. After hitting five home runs in 11 games from May 3-14, Arozarena was 6-for-39 (.154) without a home run since.

Most worryingly, Arozarena’s contact rate has decreased, especially inside the strike zone. He’s not leaving the zone more often, nor has he been too passive and passing up hittable pitches. No, Arozarena simply misses much more often when hitting pitches in the strike zone. There’s a lot of blue here:

Arozarena was never a great contact hitter, but now he is among the worst. His zone contact rate was 79.5% from 2022-23 and the MLB average is 85.2%. This year Arozarena fell to 73.6%. That ranks last among qualified hitters (Nolan Gorman is a distant second at 75.0%). The contact rate in the Azorarena area in 2024 is close to Joey Gallo’s career rate (70.3%), for reference.

Handsome Randy had a second-half slump last season (.220/.331/.369) and is hitting .193/.297/.343 in nearly 500 plate appearances since the 2023 All-Star break. That’s no longer a small slump. Arozarena is an aggressive, almost violent swinger, but if it were as simple as relaxing a little and focusing on contact, I think he would have made that adjustment by now.

The Rays are 26-29 and having their worst season in years. They are allowing the sixth-most runs per game and scoring the fifth-fewest runs per game in baseball. Offensively, Arozarena’s decline from All-Star player to comfortably below average takes center stage. It’s hard to see how the Rays can get back into the race with this version of Arozarena.

Profar’s new leg kick

Any idea who currently leads National League outfielders in WAR? Mookie Betts and Bryce Harper are now infielders, remember. It wasn’t Ronald Acuña Jr. before his recent knee injury. Corbin Carroll is having a terrible season. Christian Yelich has been great but has missed time due to injury. The defensive stats don’t please Jazz Chisholm Jr. enough to raise his WAR.

The answer is Jurickson Profar. His 2.4 WAR leads all NL outfielders, with Teoscar Hernández a distant second with 1.6 WAR. Profar, who is still just 31 years old, has a slash line of .323/.419/.497 with eight home runs. He hit nine home runs all of last season despite making 45% of his appearances at Coors Field. Profar had a great start to 2024.

Now, we’ve seen Profar do this before. He was the game’s No. 1 prospect a decade ago, and since then it’s been mostly teasing. Flashes of brilliance mixed with competent, if not underwhelming play. It’s entirely possible, and perhaps even likely, that Profar’s excellent start to the season is just a run of wins. If so, it helped the Padres stay afloat in the wild card race.

However, there is a tangible reason to believe in Profar’s early success. He replaced the toe tap with a full leg kick, and this led to an increase in hard contact. Here’s the must-have before and after GIF:

Batters adopt leg kicks when they want to drive the ball more and Profar is actually driving the ball more. As a right-handed hitter, his average exit velocity and hard hit rate are up to 90.0 mph and 50.0%, respectively. From 2022-23, those numbers were 86.3 mph and 31.9%. As a lefty, it’s 88.8 mph and 36.9% in 2024 after 86.9 mph and 33.4% from 2022-23. Profar is hitting the ball harder.

Again, we’ve seen flashes of Profar before, and he also attempted a leg kick early in his career. That doesn’t mean it can’t work now. I can’t say I’d bet on Profar leading all NL outfielders in WAR at the end of the season, but the new leg kick is at least one reason to pay attention to his improved performance in 2024.