6 state legislatures where the partisan balance is on the line in November

Increasing attention is turning to state legislatures as they become the focal point of debates over abortion access, immigration, redistricting and gun control.

Both Democrats and Republicans see opportunities to shift the balance of party control in one or both chambers among a handful of state legislatures this fall.

Wisconsin in particular will be closely watched after Democrats won a lawsuit last year that led to the state drawing new legislative maps that will take effect this fall.

Here are six state legislatures where party control is at stake.

Michigan

Democrats are playing defense in the Great Lakes State House, where the party holds 56 seats while Republicans hold 54.

The state House was briefly tied 54-54 earlier this year when two Democrats resigned from their seats. But the seats, which favored the party, were both won by Democrats during the April special election.

There are seven House districts that will be open this November: 33, 34, 35, 40, 64, 81 and 93.

The state is also particularly important as it is one of the few battleground states that will determine the presidency.

An average of Michigan polls compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) shows former President Trump with 48 percent support, while President Biden has about 47 percent.

Minnesota

Republicans plan to strike in Minnesota, where Democrats hold 70 seats in the state House while Republicans hold 64.

But Republicans may also have an opportunity to bounce back sooner than expected in the Senate, where Democrats have a 34-33 advantage. State Sen. Kelly Morrison is running for outgoing Rep. Dean Phillips’ seat in the 3rd Congressional District.

If Morrison prevails in the Aug. 13 Democratic primary and wins the general election, it would trigger a special election for his seat in the upper house, giving Republicans the opportunity to flip his seat ahead of elections scheduled for 2026.

On a national scale, Biden barely leads Trump in head-to-head polls, where the Minnesota poll average compiled by The Hill and DDHQ shows Biden with 46% support and Trump with 45%.

Pennsylvania

Democrats aim to flip Pennsylvania’s state Senate, which has a 28-22 Republican advantage, while protecting a narrow 102-100 majority in the state House.

Last year alone, the state House majority was up for grabs three separate times. Democrat Heather Boyd won a special election in Delaware County last May in the state’s 163rd House District, keeping the seat in Democratic hands. Democrat Lindsay Powell won the special election in September in the state’s 21st District in Allegheny County, replacing a former Democratic lawmaker.

Democrats also saved another seat from tipping over in February, when Democrat Jim Prokopiak won a special election for the state’s 140th district in Bucks County.

Arizona

Republicans are looking to defend their narrow majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature. Republicans have a 16-14 advantage in the state Senate, while they hold a 31-29 advantage in the state House.

The state became ground zero in the battle over abortion access when the Arizona Supreme Court earlier this year upheld an 1864 abortion law that bans nearly all abortions.

Lawmakers repealed the abortion law earlier this month after several Republicans crossed party lines. At least two of those lawmakers also face close races this year, including State Sen. Shawnna Bolick (R) and State Rep. Matt Gress (R).

The state once again imposed a 15-week restriction on the procedure.

Democrats are also seeking passage of a ballot initiative that would enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution, while Republicans are pushing for an initiative This would make it more difficult to pass ballot measures in the state.

Democrats in the Grand Canyon State also have reason to be nervous: Arizona polling average compiled by The Hill and DDHQ shows Trump with 48% support and Biden with 44%. Considering Kennedy, Trump leads Biden by 42% to 38%.

New Hampshire

Democrats are looking to make inroads in the Granite State, where Republicans enjoy a 14-10 majority in the state Senate and a 201-194 advantage in the state House. There are two vacancies and three independent ones.

Democrats won two special elections in March for state House seats, albeit in favorable Democratic territory, while Republicans won two special elections in January in Coos County.

A competitive gubernatorial race will encourage turnout after Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said he would not seek another term.

Polls also showed a tighter confrontation between Biden and Trump in the state, with a voting average of New Hampshire polls from The Hill and DDHQ showing the president leading Trump’s support 51 percent to 47 percent.

Wisconsin

Republicans enjoy majorities in both state chambers, with a 64-35 advantage in the Assembly and a 22-10 majority in the state Senate.

But Democrats could have a better chance of flipping the Assembly this fall, after Democrats won a lawsuit late last year that generated new state electoral maps; Experts say Democrats are not expected to flip the state Senate.

Wisconsin will be another critical state for Trump and Biden in November: An average of Wisconsin polls research compiled by The Hill and DDHQ show that Trump and Biden are nearly tied, with Trump near 48% support while Biden is at 47%. When Kennedy is taken into account, Trump and Biden are tied at 41 percent.