2024 NFL win totals, NFC South: Trust in Buccaneers despite tough schedule; Panthers to bounce back?

NFL Season win totals are some of the most fun stocks to bet on – it’s a season-long bet with week-to-week intensity because of how important each game is to the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports betting, winning totals have been released for some time now, but we can’t really get crystallized, concrete numbers until NFL Schedule is released.

With the schedule defined and all angles of 2024 NFL season under scrutiny, we can finally start betting on season-long win totals. I’ll revisit them in August before the season starts, but we’ll try to find some value early in the offseason.

I’m using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you have to do your research and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check out the rest of the divisions here as soon as they are released:

Before we begin, a few quick notes. First, we are picking all teams, but not betting on all teams. Second, any best bets will be indicated in bold, etc. Third, you should probably avoid betting on overs at this point, due to how quickly injuries can change a player’s fortunes. NFL teams.

Let’s go.

NFC South

Above 9.5 (-135) / Below 9.5 (+115)

Atlanta’s aggressive offseason brought with it high expectations. After the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins, they also invested in adding wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore to an already loaded depth chart with skill position players like Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, along with Zac Robinson calling plays. for the attack. Michael Penix Jr. was a confusing draft choice, but we can decide that question later. If Cousins ​​is healthy after a torn Achilles in late 2023, there’s no reason this offense shouldn’t run. Defensively, I trust Raheem Morris to get the most out of his new team, but adding an edge rusher instead of a backup quarterback may have benefited the Falcons more in 2024. This was a team that went 4-6 in the last few games of a scoreboard. year, meeting their win expectation at 7-10 and losing four of five to close out (three in the division, a horrible loss to the Panthers). It’s easy to see why people would be optimistic about the Falcons with massive coaching and quarterback potential. But drawing the AFC West and NFC East is HARD, especially this year – the Seahawks, Steelers, and Vikings, as the divisional seeding matchups aren’t too bad, but not exactly easy. I really like the Falcons this year, I’ll probably pick them to win the division, but betting on 10 wins without seeing Cousins ​​on the field would be crazy at this stage of the offseason. I would happily dump them if the win total reached double digits.

Lean: Falcons under 9.5 (+115)

Above 8.5 (+125) / Below 8.5 (-150)

On the other hand, the Bucs are being disrespected again this offseason. We ALL criticized them last year and Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and their staff clearly used the doubters as motivation. The offense is a question mark with Dave Canales headed to the Panthers, but Baker has experience working with new OC Liam Coen from his time with the Rams and GM Jason Licht has added a new center in Graham Barton along with new weapons. in running back Bucky Irving and wide receiver Jalen McMillan. Chris Godwin is expected to spend more time in the slot after surpassing a ton in 2023, which should only increase his production. Evans continues to put up HOF-worthy numbers year after year. Tampa went 4-4 in one-score games and basically hit their number in terms of win expectancy, so we don’t have a massive drop expected there. Maybe the defense slips a bit, but Todd Bowles has consistently done a good job getting the most out of that side of the ball as OC and head coach. If you want to point out Baker’s struggles every couple of years, I guess that’s fine, but he seems to have found a home now. The schedule is a little daunting: the AFC West plus the NFC East plus the first-place matchups against the Lions, Ravens and 49ers are brutal. The Bucs play Baltimore, Atlanta, KC and San Francisco in a four-week span, including the Chiefs and Niners back-to-back before the Week 11 bye. Ouch. I would trust the lineup and the organization and lean in with the big money here, I think.

Lean: Buccaneers over 8.5 (+125)

Above 7.5 (-120) / Below 7.5 (+105)

The Saints truly feel like a team floating in the ether. They’re kind of stuck with Derek Carr, but they also grabbed Spencer Rattler. Dennis Allen is absolutely in the hot seat despite going 9-8 last year. He just fired Pete Carmichael Jr. and replaced him with Klint Kubiak, which means a slow offensive start would put a target squarely on his back. They fell short of winning expectations last year, so maybe there’s room for a step forward, but I can’t get over the offensive line situation. Trevor Penning looks like a failure. Ryan Ramczyk could retire before the season starts. Taliese Fuaga has to be great as a rookie from the start; otherwise, Carr could be under severe pressure. Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara has averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry and fewer than 60 receptions per season over the past three years, after averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 82 receptions in his first four years at NFL. The receiver corps is fun with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and AT Perry along with tight end Juwan Johnson. But it’s fair to wonder how high-powered this passing attack will be, especially with what still projects to be an above-average defense (New Orleans was eighth in points allowed last year). I’m going to continue to take advantage of the positive money here, with the understanding that the offensive line suffers even more and the offense suffers some.

Pick: Santos under 7.5 (+105)

Carolina Panteras

Above 5.5 (-115) / Below 5.5 (-105)

In fact, that number went up by a full game — a shocking amount in May — thanks to some professional bettors who “released” the Panthers over 4.5 as a pick. That won’t convince me to take either side of this, but it will take me off the Panthers’ win total as a pick, which is a shame because I liked their over-4.5 as well. The 2023 Panthers had a 2-15 record and were by far the worst team in all of professional football. It wasn’t close. But they underperformed their expected win total of 3.5 and went 2-6 in one-score games. They had a rookie quarterback, Bryce Young, who was under siege from opposing pass rushers 24/7 from the start. The offensive line is already better, thanks to free agency spenders Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. They had no vertical weapons on offense (or, really, no weapons at all, no disrespect to Adam Thielen’s 400,000 catches last year). Carolina added Diontae Johnson in a trade and dropped Xavier Legette/tight end J’Tavion Sanders in the draft. Jonathon Brooks’ explosive pass-catching could pay huge dividends if he’s healthy to start the season as well.

Frank Reich’s coaching staff was a mix of guys that the front office and ownership wanted, as well as guys that Reich wanted and there were major infighting between them. New coach Dave Canales and GM Dan Morgan seem to be in tune with meddling owner David Tepper being much less hands-on. Canales has a strong track record of improving quarterback play wherever he wants to go, even though he only had one year as an offensive coordinator before landing this job. The schedule is brutal with AFC West and NFC East available. And what a year to have the Bears and Bengals (not to mention an improved Cardinals team) as last-place, divisional matchups. Still, I like Carolina to get six wins this season.

Lean: Panthers over 5.5 (-115)