UFC 302 predictions, odds, best bets: Dustin Poirier, Sean Strickland among top picks to consider

UFC 302 is coming and with it another card full of intriguing fights. No fight is as interesting on paper as the main event, where Dustin Poirier looks to finally win a world championship by facing lightweight king Islam Makhachev in the Saturday in Newark, New Jersey.

Poirier’s storied career has made him one of the most popular and successful fighters on the UFC roster, although he twice came up short in world title fights, losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. Makhachev is a dominant fighter and is looking to make his third title defense after defeating former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski twice.

In the co-main event, polarizing former middleweight champion Sean Strickland looks to get back into the win column after losing the title to Dricus du Plessis in January. In the Octagon will be former title challenger Paulo Costa, who brings a unique brand of unpredictability to each fight.

After going 4-1 with our best bets for UFC 301, we sit at 12-13 on the year. It’s not a winning record, but we’re back on track to get out of the red, starting with UFC 302.

Randy Brown x Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Randy Brown by decision (+150)

There is a lot to consider in this fight. Zaleski has the best power and a solid low kick game to go with it, with a willingness to take downs and just try to make something happen. That said, Brown is younger at 33 to Zaleski’s 37, faster and with a five-inch reach advantage. It’s in Brown’s best interest to try to use his range and speed to stay away from wild exchanges that could get him in trouble. If he sticks to the game plan against a durable opponent, a decision win appears to be the most likely outcome.

Niko Price x Alex Morono

Fight to go far: No (-190)

While this is a rematch, there’s probably no point in looking to the first fight for indicators of how this round plays out. Price won the first fight by knockout, only for it to be nullified due to a positive drug test for marijuana (the first of two times this would happen to Price). Price is 5-7 after a 10-0 start to his career, while Morono has had much more success, going 11-6 since his first fight with Price. Price has the power to stop the fight, but he is also just as likely to be stopped, with five KO losses in his 10 most recent fights. Morono isn’t the best finisher, but the stars seem aligned for a fight that doesn’t reach the final score.

Kevin Holland x Michał Oleksiejczuk

Fight your way past 1.5 rounds (-150)

The best advice in this fight might be to stay away completely, but pressed to select a move, I like the 1.5+ round line. Oleksiejczuk has good knockout power and Holland is also a good finisher, but styles create fights and all those other clichés. This fight is likely to take place on the feet and Holland is crafty and willing to use his natural advantages in height and reach. Holland’s range is 81 inches to 74 for Oleksiejczuk. If a submission does happen, it will likely occur in the second half of the fight, after the fighters figure out their approach and make adjustments during the fight.

Sean Strickland x Paulo Costa

Sean Strickland Money Line (-250)

The line is a little wider than ideal, but the fight is what it is. Costa is always a wild card, but he’s also inconsistent, where Strickland’s consistency is one of his best assets as of late. Strickland’s boxing style is difficult for opponents to understand and Costa isn’t exactly a cerebral fighter. Rather than trying to figure out whether Costa will survive the distance or be stopped along the way, we’re simply advising that you put your money on the better, more reliable of the two combatants. Costa will likely be destroyed as long as he has a few moments of success, but Strickland’s durability should allow him to survive those moments and return to boxing, connecting and making it difficult for Costa to find consistent success.

Islam Makhachev x Dustin Poirier

Dustin Poirier’s Moneyline (+425)

There’s one element of Poirier’s pick that hits close to home, but it’s also that +425 feels too big to pass on. This puts the implied probability of Poirier winning at 19%. Makhachev is an excellent fighter and deserves credit for his dominant run and Poirier stumbled a few times in his legendary career. But Poirier is also a different kind of challenge than a short rising (and once in the nick of time) featherweight like Alexander Volkanovski or even Charles Oliveira.

Makhachev could hit Poirier on the feet or revert to the successful approach of an arm triangle choke takedown as he dominated the fight. But I expect Poirier to bring everything he has in an effort to find small openings to do meaningful things and put his own pressure on Makhachev. Off the top of my head, I would pick Makhachev, but with the odds as wide as they are, I think the value is on Poirier.