Champions League final Corner Picks: Will heavy favorites Real Madrid hold off Borussia Dortmund?

The David versus Goliath angle is used very often in sports, but sometimes it’s kicking you in the face and you can’t ignore it. This year’s Champions League final is one of those moments.

In one corner, we have Real Madrid, possibly the most successful football club in the history of the planet. Real Madrid won La Liga for the 36th time this season and will now try to win the Champions League for the 15th time. No other club has won more than seven (AC Milan). Hell, Real Madrid has lost more Champions League finals (three) than all but seven other clubs have won in the history of this competition.

In the other corner, Borussia Dortmund. Now, David’s analogy isn’t perfect for Dortmund because it’s not like this is a small club with no history. Dortmund won the Champions League in 1997 and lost the Champions League final to Bayern Munich in 2013. That said, Dortmund have not won the Bundesliga since 2012 and finished fifth in the league this season.

So, it’s the biggest club in the history of the world against fifth-placed Germany. It’s a wild clash that no one could have predicted at the start of the competition, but I don’t want to diminish Dortmund’s achievements. Despite all their problems at home, Dortmund emerged from the “Group of Death” in the group stage, winning Group F over PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle United. They then passed Atlético Madrid and PSG again in the knockout stage. He’s not here by chance, but will he be able to accomplish the unthinkable?

Real Madrid x Borussia Dortmund

Date: Saturday, June 1st | Time: 3pm ET | To attend: CBS/Paramount+

money line: I’ll start with the disclaimer that this bet is for 90 minutes. You can bet that Real Madrid will win, including extra time and possible penalties, but the energy is much heavier and I don’t think we will need extra time. As I already wrote, Dortmund were not expected to be here and, although they earned their place, they also had their share of luck.

In the semi-finals, Dortmund did not allow a goal to PSG, despite PSG having had eight shots on target, for a total xG (expected goals) of 4.7. PSG hit the post four different times in the second leg.

Counting on the same luck against Real Madrid probably won’t work. While Dortmund did as good a job of limiting Kylian Mbappe as anyone could ask for in the semi-finals, almost everything PSG does in attack goes through Mbappe. Real Madrid are not so limited in their options. If you remove the Madrid version of Mbappe in Vinicius Jr, they still have Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo, Toni Kroos (playing his last game, by the way) and more. That’s the beauty of Real Madrid. They don’t have to play a certain way because the team is full of players who can beat you in multiple ways. That’s why they only lost two games all season, both against Atlético Madrid. The pick: Real Madrid (-160)

Total: Real Madrid’s defensive numbers have not been good in the last four games; although they kept three clean sheets, the numbers lose some context. All four matches were played after Real Madrid had overtaken Bayern Munich to the Champions League final and after they had won the La Liga title. They were on cruise control most of the time. However, Real Madrid have allowed at least one goal in their last five Champions League games and in nine of their 12 games in total. Dortmund have played 49 games this season and scored at least once in 42. Just because I don’t think Dortmund will win doesn’t mean I don’t think they will score. The pick: Over 2.5 (-135)

Support: As I mentioned, Dortmund did an excellent job of limiting Kylian Mbappe in the semi-finals, and I can see them taking a similar approach to Real Madrid’s Vinicius Jr. Both players have similar attributes, but there is a fundamental difference between them.

Kylian Mbappe wants to be seen as the best player in the world, and he can be. However, Mbappe is not what I consider a team player on the biggest stages. In the league game, Mbappe was second on the team with 7 assists, but did not make any in 12 Champions League matches.

For the season, Vinicius’s 9 assists rank second on the team behind Jude Bellingham, and he has 4 assists in the Champions League this season. It’s not hard to imagine Vini using his speed to get to the touchline and fire a cross into the box where any of his teammates could hit it. The pick: Vinicius Jr. to register an assist (+330)