College football odds, bets: Why Oklahoma State is undervalued as a Big 12 championship contender

There’s something about playing the underdog that Mike Gundy seems to love, no matter how much he wins. Oklahoma State was picked seventh in last season’s Big 12 preseason poll. Months later, the Pokes defeated Oklahoma in the final Bedlam and played for the Big 12 championship. The Cowboys achieved double-digit victories eight times under Gundy’s watch. The half came after starting the year unranked in the preseason AP Top 25.

But in 2024, the lack of attention is worrying. Oklahoma State has the seventh-best odds to win the Big 12 championship, behind teams like Iowa State and Texas Tech. The Cowboys are tied with UCF, which went 6-7 during a frustrating first season as a power conference team. Ironically, the Knights’ only win against a legacy Power Five team was against OSU.

It’s true that Oklahoma State was by no means dominant during its run to the Big 12 title game. Bizarre losses to UCF and South Alabama were a combined 78-10. The Cowboys needed double overtime to survive a late BYU charge. Still, the state of Oklahoma held firm. Heading to 2024, the final season feels much more like an early arrival than a peak.

For one, running back Ollie Gordon II is back after a Doak Walker Award-winning campaign. Gordon rushed for 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns during a sophomore season and will enter the 2024 season as the sport’s leading rusher by a wide margin. 247Sports rankings their No. 1 offensive line in the country, ahead of the giants of LSU and Georgia. The unit has five starters, including tackles Dalton Cooper and Jake Springfield, who combine to 89 starts.

Overall, the state of Oklahoma ranks third in national production return per ESPN, behind only Iowa State and Stanford. An absurd 85% of production returns to college football with stars at almost every level. Defensive lineman Collin Oliver is a potential first-round pick to lead the unit. Quarterback Alan Bowman was able to play another year of eligibility in 2024. The Pokes reached Big 12 contention only when Bowman fully took over at center.

While production return is no guarantee of success, it does establish a baseline. Last season, Florida State, Kansas and Michigan were the top three Power Five teams in returning production. These teams combined to go 37-5 and each put together their best seasons in at least a decade.

By the way, the biggest obstacle has already passed. Gundy missed 15 games against Oklahoma, which is nearly 20% of his career losses. Now, the Cowboys have eternal scoring and Gundy never has to worry about Oklahoma again. It must be a huge weight lifted off your shoulders as you move forward.

It has to be said that a non-Oklahoma team has ridden its luck in close games to reach the Big 12 title game essentially every year since returning in 2017. History is filled with horror stories from their seasons following. There was TCU 2023, which went from the national title game to losing a bowl game. A year earlier, Baylor went from winning the Sugar Bowl to having a losing record. Iowa State also fell from first place in the Big 12 regular season in 2020 to a disappointing 7-6 record.

However, there are a few pieces that help crack the code of a successful Mike Gundy team. On the one hand, experience as a quarterback helps. All eight of Gundy’s 10-win seasons were multi-year starters. A superstar wide receiver also helps – and Brennan Presley is back to fill that role. Defensively, the middle of the pack is good enough. This will require some improvements from Bryan Nardo’s unit, but it is possible.

Plus, low expectations don’t hurt. Since 2009, Oklahoma State has been chosen in the top 15 of the preseason AP Top 25 six times. Five times, the Pokes finished lower in the final poll, including two unranked placements. The only exception was during the historic 2011 season.

Simply put, all the pieces are in place for another Mike Gundy special, despite the shockingly long odds. On the other hand, I doubt Oklahoma State is too worried about being overlooked. This is how the Cowboys live best.

10-win seasons under Mike Gundy

Oklahoma State when the preseason was ranked