2024 MLB trade deadline preview: Who’s buying, who’s selling and who’s in between after first two months

Oakland Athletics executive Billy Beane used to tell Peter Gammons that the season comes in three parts. The first two months are about figuring out what you have; the next two months are spent getting what you need; and in the last two months, you will form your best possible team. With the calendar flipping to June, we are officially in the “get what you need” phase of the season.

Yes, the Major League Baseball trade deadline (set for July 30) is no longer a distant object, as it was when the Miami Marlins began their fire sale in early May. Other non-competitors began to talk about their most desirable trading chips. It’s only a matter of time before the rumor mill starts to work and deals start to be made.

With that in mind, we here at CBS Sports wanted to provide a primer of sorts ahead of the crazy season. Below you’ll find our reads on which teams will buy, which will sell, and which will have tough decisions to make in the coming weeks, as well as notable players who could be on the move.

1. Buyers

Everyone can agree that the usual suspects — being MLB’s top Phillies, the Dodgers and the Yankees — will be active at the deadline. Each has an obvious area of ​​need: The Phillies could use some outside help; the Dodgers pitching reinforcements; the Yankees, an infielder. You can bet your bottom dollar that each candidate will seek out another reliever.

For reasons beyond their control, the Braves have become the most interesting buyer. It’s not just because they’re behind the Phillies in the National League East, and it’s not just because they’ll have to survive without ace Spencer Strider and reigning MVP Award winner Ronald Acuña Jr. It’s the combination of these developments that puts Alex Anthopoulos in a position interesting. In theory, the Braves can justify a hyper- or hypo-aggressive approach to the deadline — the latter because their core is almost completely locked in place. “Almost completely” doesn’t mean completely, however, and the Braves have to weigh the possibility that Max Fried (a free agent) and Charlie Morton (who keeps talking about retirement) won’t be on the team next season. If we had to guess, Anthopolous will probably err on the side of aggression, as he always has — he’s usually the first to move each offseason for a reason, and it’s hard to imagine him standing tall as the Braves enter this season with serious World Series aspirations.

It seems like every three months we notice that the Orioles have World Series hopes, plenty of prospects and a dearth of long-term financial commitments, making them the perfect candidates to do something bold. The closest they’ve come over the years was this past offseason when they landed ace Corbin Burnes in what appeared to be a highly favorable deal for Baltimore. With new owner David Rubenstein in place, we might get an answer by this deadline as to how much of the Orioles’ previous aversion to big moves could be credited to top executive Mike Elias and how much had to do with an uncertain ownership situation.

The American League Central generally contains more sellers than buyers. That will not be the case this term. The Guardians, Royals, Twins and even the Tigers have incentives to make win-now moves given the state of the division and wildcard races. It will be interesting to see if and how this dynamic impacts each team’s behavior. The Guardians have long faced financial constraints imposed by owners, while the Twins had a quiet winter because of broadcast deal issues; the Royals, however, don’t have a large farm system to deal with, and the Tigers (being the furthest back) may decide to keep their powder dry through the winter.

2. The sellers

On the other side of the spectrum, there are at least a few foolproof salespeople.

The Mets’ month-long slump makes them the more intriguing seller. Successful off-season bargain additions including Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Harrison Bader should attract plenty of interest in the market. Likewise, the Mets should be able to offer contenders a serious right-handed punch, whether in the form of designated hitter J.D. Martinez or first baseman Pete Alonso. Executives from other teams have warned that Alonso’s return could fall short of expectations; Contemporary front offices simply don’t value veteran right-wing first basemen like they used to, even when they have Alonso’s track record. If they did, Alonso would likely already have a new long-term extension in hand rather than an upcoming free agency date.

The Marlins, under the guidance of new head of baseball operations Peter Bendix, made the first major trade of the season in May when they sent Luis Arraez to the Padres for a four-player return. It won’t be the last time this deadline the Marlins make a move. Bendix was hired to modernize a franchise full of antiquated processes and infrastructure. He spent the winter bolstering his staff roster; Now, it’s time to dismantle a squad that failed to repeat last season’s success. First baseman Josh Bell appears certain to be traded before August, while Bendix will have to weigh lefty Jesús Luzardo and center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. It’s hard to imagine that Bendix sees any player on his active roster as untouchable, meaning that This could be a busy (and, depending on your perspective, painful) summer for Miami.

Unlike last year, when Perry Minasian had to shut down Shohei Ohtani’s persistent speculation, the calculation is much easier for these Angels. They are sellers and have already indicated to other teams that they are open to dialogue about their players. Expect Minasian to answer calls on outfielder Taylor Ward and second baseman Luis Rengifo, and for him to move some arms around from a collectively underperforming bullpen. Two other names worth noting here: veteran left-hander Tyler Anderson has bounced back from a rough first season in Los Angeles and still has a year left on his contract, and right-hander José Soriano, who may represent Minasian’s best chance at significantly improving a depleted farm system thanks to the team’s extensive remaining control.

The Athletics, Rockies, and White Sox also appear in this box, although their offerings pale in comparison. There has been and will continue to be a lot of speculation among other front offices about whether the Athletics should approach Mason Miller. He is undoubtedly one of the best relievers in baseball and should remain under team control until the Athletics arrive in Las Vegas. At the same time, Miller has a checkered injury history that has limited him to just over 100 professional innings (including this season) since being drafted in 2021. Teams are rarely as aggressive in moving their pre-arbitration replacements as the fees of wear suggest. it should be, in part because of the optical impact. If ever there was a team that could disregard this angle, it’s probably the franchise willing to play in three different national markets over a five-year period.

3. The middlemen

The confusing state of the wildcard races means many teams will have to wait until the end of the summer to decide what the deadline will be. There are three clubs in particular that we believe will have interesting conversations between now and August.

The Blue Jays, perpetual underperformers, haven’t won a playoff game since 2016. If you need additional evidence that time doesn’t wait for a core to reach its potential before moving on, consider that Vladmir Guerrero Jr. scheduled to free agency after next season. If the Blue Jays slip further in the running game between now and the end of July, would they consider trading Guerrero or Bichette? Even if they play better baseball in the future, this seems like an issue they will have to seriously grapple with in the winter.

The Reds were supposed to be a team on the rise after narrowly missing out on postseason play last fall. That hasn’t gone to plan and the Reds are mired in last place thanks to a cocktail of injuries, suspensions and poor performance. The Reds likely wouldn’t move any of their long-term pieces, but it would make sense to buy out some short-term prospects like starter Frankie Montas, reliever Lucas Sims and infielder Jonathan India, among others.

Then there are the Diamondbacks, the defending National League champions. They’ve been having a tough time lately, fueled by (what else?) poor performance and injuries. There is no need for an overhaul, but if the D-backs continue to fail, they could make the services of impending free agents such as first baseman Christian Walker and closer Paul Sewald available for bidding.