MLB trends: Cubs’ disastrous defense, the return of the knuckleball and Angels’ home woes

The 2024 MLB season is two months away and sample sizes are not what smaller. Those early-season heat waves are becoming bona fide outbreaks and those early-season cold snaps are becoming worrisome signs of decline. With that in mind, here are three MLB trends to watch now that the calendar has turned to June.

Chicago’s surprisingly bad interior defense

Over the past five weeks and changes, the Cubs are 13-22, largely because they score just 3.54 runs per game. Eighteen times in those 35 games they scored three runs or less. Incredibly, the Cubs are still in the third wild card spot despite their recent offensive malaise. The NL’s widespread mediocrity is keeping many teams in the running these first two months.

Chicago’s offense has such poor stretch that it’s surprising. Even more surprising is the team’s internal defense. A year ago, the Cubs were one of the best defensive teams in the game, especially on dirt, where Gold Glovers Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner patrolled the middle infield. This year, however, interior defense has been an issue.

Here are the numbers for Chicago’s interior defense heading into action on Tuesday:

From one of the best to one of the worst. The league average BABIP — batting average on balls in play — on ground balls is .242 this season. It was .243 last year, up from the mid-.230s for most of the previous decade. You can thank MLB’s shift restrictions for that. The Cubs went from 27 points above average last year to 20 points below average this year. Damn!

That 47-point swing equates to an additional hit for every 21 ground balls or more. Cubs pitchers have an intermediate ground ball rate (42.7%) and average 19 ground balls per game. So we’re talking about almost one additional hit allowed per game, just on ground balls. Going from a .217 BABIP on land last year to .262 this year may not seem like much, but it’s a huge difference.

So what happened? For starters, the Cubs installed Christopher Morel at third, and he is one of the worst defensive third basemen in the game, both by the numbers and the eye test. He ranks last among third basemen in defensive runs saved (minus-7) and strikeouts above average (minus-7). Part-timer Nick Madrigal went from great third last year to average this year too, before being demoted earlier this week.

Michael Busch, who has started most of Chicago’s games at first base, is also not a particularly skilled defender, especially when it comes to bag throws. The Cubs have already committed 10 throwing errors between second base, shortstop and third base. Certainly a better defensive first baseman could have prevented some of the hitting errors that Busch was unable to make.

Furthermore, Hoerner and Swanson have not been themselves. Swanson missed time with a knee injury last month and perhaps that has limited his mobility. Either way, he went from arguably the best defensive shortstop in the game in previous years to just average this year. Same with Hoerner. He was arguably the best defensive second baseman in the league in the past. Now he is more or less.

Defensive slumps happen, and with players as talented as Hoerner and Swanson, I’m inclined to believe they’ll find their feet on the field soon. That said, the season is more than a third complete and glove work has taken a step back. Bad defense also hurts in many ways. That means more baserunners, more pitches to the guy on the mound, in the bullpen, etc.

When you’re struggling to score runs like the Cubs have been the last few weeks, you have to do everything else better to compensate, and the infield defense hasn’t been below average. Some decline compared to last year was expected, especially with Morel taking control of the situation. The rest of the unit alongside him was a disappointment. Last year’s strength has suddenly become a weakness.

Waldron’s possibly underused knuckleball

For the first time since RA Dickey’s final season in 2017, baseball has a knuckleballer as a full-time member of a rotation. Padres righty Matt Waldron has thrown 575 knuckleballs since making his MLB debut last June. From 2018-22, positionless pitchers threw just 965 knuckleballs, and 833 of those were thrown by former Red Sox swingman Steven Wright from 2018-19.

Waldron, 27, allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings in a tough loss to the Angels on Monday. In his previous start, he pitched seven shutout innings against an admittedly weak Marlins lineup. Waldron threw 55% knuckleballs against the Marlins. His previous record in an MLB game was 44% knuckleballs. He typically throws it about 35% of the time, mixing it up with fastballs and sliders.

Waldron is in a good warm-up now, pitching to a 1.84 ERA and averaging 5.9 innings over his last five starts. This coincided with an increase – a slight increase, but still an increase – in the use of the knuckleball. He threw 41% knuckleballs in those five games. In his previous 15 major league games, Waldron threw just 31% knuckleballs. That’s an additional knuckleball for every two hits or more.

Is it possible that Waldron’s knuckleball is underutilized? Even Dickey and Tim Wakefield mixed in a fastball every now and then, though MLB hitters hit .261 with a .450 slugging percentage against Waldron’s fastballs — he throws a four-seamer and a sinker — and his slider has a weak 17.6% smell rate. The MLB average is 32.6% on sliders. Waldron barely has half that.

The fastballs are hit pretty hard and the slider doesn’t generate swings and misses. Waldron’s knuckleball, meanwhile, has held opponents to a .219 batting average with a .352 slugging percentage, they’ve hit 28.2% of their shots, and the average exit velocity of balls in play is just 84 .1mph. The knuckleball is simply Waldron’s most effective pitch.

Knowing this, I can’t help but think Waldron should throw his knuckleball more. Maybe don’t go full Dickey/Wakefield and play it 90% of the time, but is 60% doable? 70%? Combining a 70s knuckleball with a 90s fastball seems like a great idea – how could a hitter prepare for both? — although hitters are telling us Waldron’s fastball isn’t fooling them. The knuckleball is.

As it stands, Waldron is having a strong season. He’s sporting a 3.98 ERA in 12 starts and several estimators say he’s been even more effective than that: 3.29 FIP and 3.36 xERA. Why fix what isn’t broken? I don’t see it that way. Throwing more knuckleballs could take Waldron to another level. As good as he was, maybe there is a way to be even better.

The historical problems of the House of Angels

Tuesday night, the Angels did something they hadn’t done all season: they picked up a series victory at home. The Halos won the first two games of the series with the Padres and will try for the sweep (!) on Wednesday night. They are 1-9 in their 10 series at home this year.

At 9-21 (.300), the Angels not only have the worst home record in baseball this season – the White Sox are next worst with a 10-21 (.323) record at home – they are on pace to have one of the worst home records ever. Here are the worst home winning percentages since MLB fully adopted the 162-game schedule in 1962:

It’s never good when you’re in the company of the 1962 Mets or the 2003 Tigers, or the expansion Expos, for that matter. I’m a little surprised that one of those recent Orioles teams didn’t show up here, although they came close. The 2019 O’s are seventh on that list with a 25-56 (.309) home record.

Of course, it’s only June 5th and the Angels still have 51 home games to play. But even if they go 26-25 in their last 51 home games, they would still finish with a 35-46 home record, or a .432 winning percentage. It would be the fourth-worst home winning percentage in franchise history, behind 1994 (.365), 1980 (.370) and 1968 (.395). Either way, it’s horrible that you cut it.

The fact is, the Angels have been a competent team on the road. They are 14-17 with a minus-8 Big A run differential. That’s not good, don’t get me wrong, but it’s not a disaster either. At home, the Angels were beaten by 44 runs, or 1.47 per game. Even the terrible Athletics of 2023 managed to win 32% of their home games. The Angels aren’t even doing that.

In the grand scheme of things, such a poor performance at home is just a small part of the Angels’ problems. The big league roster is filled with journeymen and hangers-on, the farm system is barren, and the ownership is nosy (to say the least). Perhaps the league’s worst home record is a warning sign. I suspect it won’t be. Still, it’s hard for Angels fans to get past this.