Trump’s conviction in New York extends losing streak with jurors to 0-42 in recent cases

When 12 Manhattan jurors returned after a day and a half of deliberations on May 30 and convicted Donald Trump of 34 crimesthey contributed to a surprising series of defeats for the former president.

Trump and his company have failed to win a single juror, out of a total of 42, in recent criminal and civil trials.

“It’s a remarkable thing. Out of all these jurors, he couldn’t hire one, not one person,” said criminal defense attorney Robert McWhirter.

The juries — two in state criminal trials and two in federal civil trials — ruled unanimously and quickly against Trump. Winning just one juror is often the basic hope of defense attorneys, because a jury that cannot reach a consensus — known as a hung jury — results in a mistrial. A juror can save a defendant from defeat, at least in the short term.

Trump’s juries

In December 2022, 12 jurors found two Trump Organization companies guilty of 17 crimes related to tax evasion. A prosecutor in that trial referred to Trump, who was not charged in the case, as the “elephant not in the room,” and that landed Trump’s former chief financial officer behind bars. Jurors found that Trump company executives received illicit benefits and “hoarded” the benefits to avoid tax cuts.

Five months later, it took nine jurors just hours to find Trump responsible for sexually abusing and defaming writer E. Jean Carroll. The jurors awarded Carroll $5 million.

Trump blamed his lawyers, saying they advised him to stay out of court. He said he believed his presence and testimony would have led to a better outcome.

He first tested that theory in January, participating in a second trial stemming from different allegations that he defamed Carroll. He even testified briefly. The nine-person jury in that case awarded Carroll another $83.3 million.

Although in criminal cases juries must determine guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, Carroll’s two trials were civil cases. Trump was found responsible for sexually abusing and defaming Carroll based on a preponderance of the evidence, a lower standard.

Trump decided not to testify at his criminal trial in New York, even though he had no choice but to watch every minute.

“These are your colleagues”

Trump and his lawyers have long argued that they cannot get a fair shake in Manhattan, where President Biden won about 85% of the vote in 2020. Before the trial, they sought a change of venue to other nearby counties. His two civil trials over the Carrolls’ allegations included jurors from many of those counties, which are more politically diverse and often vote to send Republicans to Congress.

“I’m sure there are people on those juries who voted for him, just by statistical probability. There must have been a certain percentage who actually voted for Donald Trump, and yet he couldn’t get one of them to leave. his way,” McWhirter said.

Trump can argue that New York politics have tilted the odds against him, but defendants “can’t choose” where their case will be tried, said Matthew Mangino, a former district attorney in Lawrence County, Pennsylvania.

“You commit a crime in Manhattan, these are your peers. And they will be selected from that population of people,” Mangino said. “The crime is in Manhattan, the jury is in Manhattan, and you will be tried in Manhattan.”

While arguments about which jurisdiction might favor one or another political candidate in their criminal case are common among experts, research into juror behavior suggests that civilians take the job very seriously when they become jurors.

Valerie Hans, a professor at Cornell Law School and one of the nation’s leading scholars on the jury system, said jurors typically follow the evidence and tend to reach a consensus based on what they are presented with.

“Most of the research says that when you have substantial evidence that favors guilt or supports acquittal, the verdict follows the evidence,” Hans said.

The evidence against Trump and his company in their most recent case was voluminous: handwritten notes relating to a scheme to cover up refunds for a “hush money” payment to an adult film star. A recording of Trump talking about a payment related to the scheme, the one made to a model. Corroborative testimony from several people indicating that Trump understood the details of the scheme and approved it, with the aim of hiding information from voters.

Still, the fact that Trump is one of the most famous and powerful people on the planet meant the court had to take concerns about preconceived bias very seriously, Hans said.

Hans said the jury selection was “very careful.” Judge Juan Merchan excused people as soon as they indicated they could not be impartial.

“A large number of people said they could not be fair to Trump and were expelled without further discussion,” Hans said, adding that Merchan then allowed lawyers “more freedom than usual” in questioning those who remained.

Across the country, prosecutors win the vast majority of trials. This is one of the reasons why most cases end in pre-trial agreements in which defendants plead guilty. In civil cases, the odds are not so bad for the defendant.

A 2019 survey of federal court case outcomes published in the University of California Davis Law Review showed that only 30% of plaintiffs won their civil court cases in 2017. The study showed that plaintiff victories have generally declined over time since 1985, when they won 70% of their cases. It noted that part of this decline had to do with an increase in lawsuits against the government – ​​often a tough battle to win – but that it could find “no complete explanation for the decline in the win rate, given the available data.”

Judgments in federal civil cases still need to be unanimous. In the four trials, Trump’s lawyers called just six witnesses. Instead, they chose, in each case, to focus on cross-examining prosecutors’ witnesses and plaintiffs in an effort to cast doubt on the cases against Trump.

Did not work.

“As many defense attorneys have likely discovered, it is risky to rely on the ‘I’ll just call one juror and they can hang the jury’ strategy,” Hans said. “It’s very difficult to manage that, especially if you have absolutely no support.”