Ranking college football’s second-year starting QBs by likelihood of their play taking a leap in 2024

Not all “sophomore starting quarterbacks” are created equal in college football, not in this crazy scenario. Some are 19 years old. Others were over the legal drinking age a year ago. But we love categories, and following a recent analysis which true freshmen are most likely to play freshman yearWe wanted to offer our opinion on which second-year starting quarterbacks are most likely to make a leap.

Because we knew our list would be a lot more fun with some of the beloved class of 2023 quarterback prospect — like Nico Iamaleava and Jackson Arnold — we made some rules for our list.

• A player needed to start at least one game last season
• It doesn’t matter if the player is in the first year of the program, as long as he was started by someone last year
• Sophomores who didn’t start last season but will start this year (like Malachi Nelson at Boise State) were omitted because they are not “sophomore starters” by the letter of the law.

As for how we ranked this list: In some ways, it’s a ranking of a list of a dozen second-year quarterbacks, but the prompt we’re trying to run is guessing which quarterback is most likely to elevate his game to game-changing status program.

Probably not

13.Luke Altmyer, Illinois

Someone needs to kick things off and if we can keep things in perspective: Altmyer could be the last that roster, but he’s still a starting quarterback in a marquee conference.

Altmyer transferred from Ole Miss before the 2023 season and took over the starting role in Champaign. He disappointed, throwing 10 interceptions with a 4-5 record in games played. Illinois fared better with backup John Paddock at the helm, but he was gone. Altmyer needs to continue strengthening his arm and keeping the ball out of harm’s way. At times he didn’t seem quite sure where to go with football.

Just want a little respect

12. Rocco Becht, Iowa State

He may never be a superstar, but expect Becht to create a good buzz in his second year as a starter. He took charge in a difficult situation last season and looked more than competent. Becht grew significantly throughout the year and finished with 23 touchdown passes. Becht knows the game and comes from NFL pedigree as a smart, heady player, and Iowa State and Matt Campbell know how to develop quarterbacks. He won’t be a household name this year, but don’t rule out the possibility of that happening in the future.

The chip on your shoulder keeps getting bigger

11.Miller Moss, USC

The national narrative all last season was that USC would turn to the transfer portal to replace Caleb Williams, as Lincoln Riley often does. But then Moss threw six touchdowns in his first start against Louisville in the bowl game.

Moss is the starter, but USC still brought in UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava for some security at the position. There isn’t any elite physical ability that can be highlighted regarding Moss, but he has fire in his belly and if he can prove us wrong here, the same way he proved us wrong last fall, the Trojans will be just fine. But it will be an interesting year: USC has a very difficult schedule as they transition to the Big Ten and Maiva, the backup, is more talented. The first sign of trouble could be Riley shutting Moss down for an important third season in Los Angeles.

That said, I’m not predicting a huge jump.

Do they have enough weapons?

10. Drew Allar, Penn State

Perspective of the class of 2022, Allar is already a fickle figure in the college football world after arriving at Penn State as a vaunted five-star prospect (remind you of anyone?). Allar started last season and received a lot of criticism for not being able to make explosive plays. I’m not so sure things will be much better in 2024. Penn State lost leading pass catcher Keandre Lambert-Smith and tight end Theo Johnson. Dante Cephas is also gone. The Nittany Lions signed Ohio State receiver Julian Fleming, but he didn’t show much skill in Columbus. Still, don’t be surprised if NFL circles fall in love with him because of his frame and strong arm.

9. Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati

Sorsby had some shining moments during his first season as Indiana’s starter. He scored three scores in three different games and ended up throwing 15 touchdowns compared to five picks. Sorsby is now in Cincinnati following a coaching change at Indiana. At 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds, he can make all the throws with a smooth arm and poise at the position, but he’ll need help from a room of skilled Bearcat players, I’m not too excited if he wants to flourish in his second season as holder.

8. Anthony Colandrea, Virginia

Monticello Manziel, Colandrea could break out in 2024 if he has enough help around him. Colandrea stepped into the starting role last season and was an absolute blast to watch, displaying smart play and natural arm talent en route to earning a quarterback nod to the 247Sports True Freshman All-American Team.

Colandrea will be much better in 2024, but will the rest of the team be? We’ll see how the receiving corps recovers from the loss of the nation’s No. 2 leader, Malik Washington, to the NFL. I’m excited enough about Colandrea to think he can make the magic happen as a one-man show, if that’s what it takes.

Will they grow or break?

7. Malik Murphy, Duke

Duke was a somewhat surprising transfer destination after Murphy left Austin, but he was a bit behind the eight ball (transferring in mid-December, which is later than most QBs) and needed a guaranteed starting spot. Making the leap to Murphy would mean blossoming into a genuine Day 2 NFL Draft potential client, what I think he can do. Murphy has elite physical tools at 6-foot-2, 238 pounds with a high-powered rifle on his arm. He started two games in 2023 and made some notable field goals, but he also mixed in some bizarre decisions and had a few moments where he threw a duck.

Murphy has looked good this spring in Durham, but we’ll see if he can put together a full season of consistency.

6. Josh Hoover, TCU

A name not many are familiar with, Hoover has exciting arm talent and can hit shots from all different platforms. He threw for over 400 yards in two of his six games for TCU in 2023, but also threw multiple interceptions in two games. He took the job from veteran Chandler Morris, so there’s a reason he made a splash in Forth Worth. If Hoover can keep the ball out of coverage in 2024, expect him to have a breakout year in a new-look Big 12.

5. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Everyone loves a gunslinger with grit at the quarterback position and that’s exactly what Nussmeier will bring to the table as he replaces Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. Nussmeier has waited his turn and is ready to pitch in 2024. Nussmeier plays with a lot of confidence (he’s already 22!) and will test tight windows with what I like to call “aggressive intelligence.”

LSU’s offense will be different with receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas out of the NFL and a new offensive player. I give Nussmeier a very good chance to make a leap and possibly even play his way into Day 1 NFL Draft territory, but we’ve also seen the vaunted and long-awaited backup fall flat on his face before, so I’m keeping him of our two highest levels.

How much better can it get?

4. Noah Fifita, Arizona

Fifita had one of the best redshirt freshman seasons in Pac-12 history. He threw 25 touchdowns to six interceptions and won seven of the nine games he started. Even in the two losses to USC and Washington, Fifita threw eight touchdowns and completed 70% of his throws.

Fifita has the accuracy and determination for a young quarterback and plays with the maturity of a fifth-year quarterback. There are a lot of changes with coach Jedd Fisch leaving for Washington, but Fifita still has Tetairoa McMillan to throw the ball to. The 5-foot-11 Fifita will be a redshirt sophomore this fall. Frankly, we think he already made the “leap” and put him here because of that. Unless he turns into a Bryce Young starter kit, we think his ceiling is also lower than the next three guys.

We are absolutely sure that they will make the leap

3. Avery Johnson, Kansas State

Johnson has “star” written all over him and could be the most fun quarterback to land in the upcoming College Football 25 video game. The dynamic Johnson has genuine speed and is packed with so much talent that he pushed Will Howard to Ohio State — and the consensus is that Kansas State kept the absolute best quarterback.

If Johnson continues to develop as a passer, he will be unstoppable at the college level and Kansas State’s best Heisman candidate since Collin Klein. In a game against Texas Tech this year, Johnson rushed for five touchdowns. Kansas State has also added some nice weapons around him for 2024, so he’s just getting started.

2. Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma

Arnold started in Oklahoma’s bowl game against Arizona and there were definitely growing pains and freshman issues, but there were also some magnificent plays in which the Texas native displayed wonderful footwork, escape ability and an explosive arm. Arnold was a five-star in the 2023 class and his skill pushed starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel (one of college football’s most prolific passers) to Oregon. We really like Arnold’s receiver weapons with Deion Burks, Andrel Anthony and Nic Anderson.

1. Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee

Iamaleava may have the most upside of any quarterback in the country at 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds with excellent mobility. Nico got his feet wet last season in blowout wins and started the bowl game for the Vols, where he showed off his dynamic running ability and huge arm, torching a stingy Iowa defense for three rushing scores and a pass.

Under the watchful eye of Josh Heupel, don’t be surprised if Iamaleava ends up as one of the best defenders in the SEC by the end of the year. He won’t leave Knoxville until he heads to New York for a Heisman ceremony.