Senate Democrats outperforming Biden raises possibility of historic split-ticket voting

Senate Democrats in key swing states have consistently performed better than President Biden in polls, fueling speculation that November could see the highest levels of candidate division in years.

Voting for different parties on the same ticket has become increasingly rare in the US amid growing political polarization. Although some underdog Democrats are now doing better than the president, observers warn that the gap between them is likely to narrow as the election approaches.

Still, the relative electoral strength of Democratic Senate candidates in states like Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania suggested that at least some voters will support them even as they back Donald Trump or a presidential candidate other than Biden.

“This is a more divided vote than we would traditionally see, but there is also a greater indecision factor than we would normally see. I think that plays a part,” said Matt Taglia, senior director of Emerson College Polling. “The dynamics of this race are very different from previous elections, even 2020.”

Although split voting is regularly discussed during election periods, it has become increasingly rare.

In 1972, President Richard Nixon defeated Democrat George McGovern in a landslide, winning 49 states. But 190 House districts elected one Democratic representative that year, according to the Pew Research Center.

In 1988, almost 150 districts voted one way for president and another for the Chamber. But in 2012, that number was just 26.

The 2016 elections marked the first time in modern history that all states voted for the same party in the presidential race as they did in the Senate race. The feat was almost repeated in 2020, when Maine was the only state to split the presidential and Senate votes, supporting Biden but also re-electing Senator Susan Collins (R).

With five months until Election Day 2024, polls indicate a possible return to at least a slightly wider ticket split.

While polls have mostly shown Biden trailing Trump in key battleground states, one source of optimism for Democrats has been their Senate candidates’ consistent lead in polls.

Democratic candidates in most of the key states that will determine which party controls the Senate — Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are ahead of their Republican opponents by at least a few points, according to polling averages. . from the Decision Office Headquarters/The Hill.

Pollsters from several polling organizations are seeing this, while also finding that Biden is a few points behind.

A CBS News/YouGov poll from last month in Arizona showed Biden fell 5 points and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), the likely Democratic Senate nominee, leading his likely Republican opponent, Kari Lake, by more than 10.

While the difference isn’t that dramatic, an Emerson survey of the state in late April showed Trump leading in Arizona by 4 points, but Lake trailing by 2. Another Emerson poll of Pennsylvania showed Trump ahead by 4 points, but Sen. Bob Casey (D) leading Republican Dave McCormick by the same amount.

A New York Times/Siena College survey released last month showed Biden with a 12-point deficit in Nevada; if true, a worrying sign for his prospects there. But the same poll showed Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) ahead of her likely opponent, Republican Sam Brown, by 2.

The differences vary somewhat from state to state and survey to survey, but the disparity has been consistent for months. The dynamic is also being seen in North Carolina, where Biden is a few points behind Trump but Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein and GOP candidate Mark Robinson are neck and neck.

Taglia said the disparity is being fueled by certain Trump voters and self-identified Republicans supporting Democratic Senate candidates. He added that independents are also leaning towards these candidates, giving them an edge.

He said he hopes the divide won’t be as significant on Election Day as it appears in polls.

“I think we will see higher levels of split voting in this election. We’re seeing that reflected in the research, but I don’t necessarily think it’s going to be as severe as we’re seeing now,” Taglia said. “I think we’ll get to something close to a more normal distribution, but we’re not there yet.”

Democrats are largely on the defense in Senate races this year, with the map of seats available for the election giving Republicans a much better chance of winning. But Democrats have an advantage: They run mostly against longtime incumbents whoI their constituents know better.

Analysts said name recognition could play some role in explaining the trend, but that’s not the only factor.

Wisconsin Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki noted that the Democratic candidates had no problems fundraisingwhile Republicans have supported wealthy candidates who can provide much of their own funds for their campaign.

Zepecki said Eric Hovde, a wealthy candidate and likely Republican Senate candidate in Wisconsin, has been advertising on TV for months but is still trailing Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).

He said Lake’s past as a GOP candidate for state governor in 2022 gives her name recognition, while Gallego is running for statewide office for the first time.

Democrats have argued that the Republican Senate candidates’ various weaknesses will give them the advantage to narrowly hold on to the chamber. They have minimal room for error, as they will likely need to win races in all key states, as well as have a vice-presidential tiebreaker to maintain their majority.

“One of the problems of the Trump era within the Republican Party was that credentialed, qualified, capable, sane and sober, common-sense leaders wanted nothing to do with being part of Donald Trump’s Republican Party and therefore chose to leave, which is how they ended up with a lot of terrible candidates,” Zepecki said.

It’s up to Biden to catch up with his Democratic colleagues.

“Everyone knows who President Biden is, and these numbers show that voters don’t like what they see,” said Republican strategist Alex Zdan. “Trump is loved by his Republican base, Biden is tolerated.”

Zdan said Democratic Senate candidates can outperform Republicans because voters know they want their party to control Congress, even if they have reservations about their presidential candidate.

He said the inclusion of independent candidates in the presidential race, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is another X-factor that could lead to greater division. Kennedy is on the ballot in more than half a dozen states and says he has met signature requirements for several others.

“Democratic voters can go to the polls and vote for the Democratic Senate candidate and then pull the lever on RFK Jr.,” he said. “That’s an option that’s open to them this year that wasn’t open in previous years.”

Taglia said a party would traditionally like its presidential candidate to lead and not worry as much if some Senate or gubernatorial candidates are a little behind, since the top of the ticket can bring them to the fore through the “coattail effect.”

“That’s not going to happen this time. In fact, the Biden campaign has an opportunity to have really good surrogates in the field, to some extent,” he said.

He said these Senate candidates may not want to tie themselves too much to Biden, given his unpopularity, but their advantage could help the incumbent anyway.

“This will be an investment that the Biden campaign won’t necessarily have to make, as they will receive a bonus on top of their investment just by having these state candidates vote, getting people energized, getting them to tune in to some Democratic issues,” Taglia said.

But it’s unclear which party will benefit in the end.

“If I am one of the campaigns, it is not necessarily that I prefer one or the other [polling situation]but it’s just a reversal of what you normally expect to see,” he said.