The Braves are scuffling, but Atlanta shouldn’t panic with 99 games remaining

It’s June 10, and on Sunday the Atlanta Braves did something they didn’t do until July 4 last season: They lost their 28th game. Sunday’s loss to the Washington Nationals (WAS 8, ATL 5) leaves Atlanta 35-28 in 2024. An excellent record, to be sure, although the Braves are now 9-15 in their last 24 games and 17-22 in his last 24 games. last 39 games. Something is wrong.

“We’re in a rough patch right now, but we can win 12 in a row, 20 in a row starting (Tuesday),” outfielder Jarred Kelenic said after Sunday’s loss (via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “I don’t think we’re really involved in all of this. I would say we’re really focusing on moving forward and how we can get better because we need to play better baseball on both sides of the ball. So I think our main focus right now is to get better and tomorrow we’ll have a day off, show up on Tuesday and go to work.”

The Braves are nine games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East heading into Monday’s off day. The Phillies have the biggest division lead in baseball and this is the first time the Braves have been nine games behind since June 2, 2022. Atlanta, of course, rallied to win the NL East that year. This is a good reminder that there is still a lot of season left to turn things around.

Losing Spencer Strider and reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. to season-ending injuries is a tough blow, no doubt. These two are almost irreplaceable. That said, the Braves won the World Series after losing Acuña to an ACL injury in 2021, and most of the core that won 104 games last season and the last six NL East titles remains intact. The talent is there.

Here are three reasons to be optimistic about the Braves’ advancement despite the current prolonged recession and significant deficit in East Holland.

1. They are a virtual lock for the postseason

Let’s call things by their names: the National League sucks. Four of the 15 NL teams – four! – have a winning record: Braves (35-28), Phillies (45-20), Los Angeles Dodgers (41-26) and Milwaukee Brewers (38-27). Six other NL teams are three games away from .500, but all have losing records. It’s a very, very heavy league, and the Braves are among the teams at the top.

The Braves are 9-15 in their last 24 games and 17-22 in their last 39 games and, according to FanGraphs, their postseason chances dropped from close to 100% to just 91.2%. Only the Dodgers and Phillies have better odds in the NL.

There are six postseason berths per league right now, four of which are available to the Braves (they’re good, but they’re not going to win the NL Central or the NL West), and the competition is weak. The Braves can’t rest on their laurels, they haven’t accomplished anything yet, but the NL’s widespread mediocrity gives them an easy path into October and therefore the luxury of time to figure things out.

2. Olson and Riley will get better…right?

A year ago, the Braves hit 307 home runs, tying a single-season record, and hit .501 as a team. A singles hitter with a .501 slugging percentage had a great season. A whole team doing this is really crazy. The 2019 Houston Astros previously held the American/National League record with a .495 hitting percentage. Atlanta broke that.

The offense hasn’t been as easy to come by this season and that’s not entirely unexpected, the Braves would never concede .501 again, although the drop has been more significant than anticipated. Aside from Marcell Ozuna, who has been on the rise since last May, players across the entire squad are underperforming. Here are the adjusted OPS numbers:

Even Acuña seemed to have declined in performance before the injury: 169 OPS+ in 2023 to 105 OPS+. With such a talented player, he could click at any time. Aaron Judge was hitting .197/.331/.393 as recently as May 2nd. He is now hitting .305/.436/.703. Can change fast and loud for elite talents like Acuña and Judge. Still, Acuña wasn’t an MVP before the injury.

Albies suffered some injuries earlier this year, so we can give him some time off. Arcia has never been a great hitter outside of the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023, and in theory, the Braves should be able to carry him as a glove-only shortstop at the bottom of the lineup. Harris has long had concerns about swing-and-miss and approach. They came back this year and stopped him.

The Braves feel the poor offensive performance more with Olson and Riley. Olson set the single-season franchise record with 54 home runs last season and has been caught pulling the ball too much this year. He has so much power that he doesn’t need to sell out to achieve it, but he’s selling out anyway. Olson was not badbut that 112 OPS+ is well south of his career 135 OPS+.

Riley is much more worrying. He’s been such a dangerous and complete hitter the last few seasons and it all completely fell apart in 2024. Every time he got a few good games together, it all quickly fell apart. It’s been a struggle all year and Riley isn’t doing that much damage when he swings. This heat map is worrying:

Expected hitting percentage, which is calculated using exit velocity and launch angle and the like, is a good measure of how well a batsman is hitting the ball, more than a definitive metric of “your hitting percentage should be exactly that.” Last year, and really the last few years, Riley could punish pitches from all parts of the strike zone. This season he is doing anything but that.

Riley missed 14 days with an intercostal injury last month — the Braves never placed him on the injured list, which was frankly absurd — and the hope is that he gets back to being himself as he moves away from the injury. That being said, Riley was hitting .245/.319/.388 the day he got hurt. It’s not like he was crushing it, got hurt, and has been looking for it ever since. It’s been a chore all year.

I can’t lie, I thought it would be easier to explain why we’re optimistic about Olson and Riley’s future. Olson appears to have some timing issues — “point of contact” issues, as the kids say today — that caused him to catch the ball too far from home plate, causing many balls to be pulled into right field. Waiting a little longer is an easy solution, in theory.

Riley is much more concerning because the ability hit doesn’t exist and there is an injury involved. The best reason to feel good about him figuring things out is his track record, which is excellent, and his age. Riley is just 27 years old. This isn’t a 30-something veteran trying to rediscover his past glory. Riley is at his peak. The Braves have 99 games to play and talent usually wins.

In short, Olson and Riley have been putting in MVP-caliber performances over the past few years, and it’s not ridiculous to expect them to right the ship at some point given their talent level and age. It’s happened, but it’s not often that such good players and these young guys go from being high-level players one year to so-so the next year. Olson and Riley will get better (right?).

3. Anthopoulos will be active by the deadline

Do I know this for sure? No. Does history strongly suggest this will be the case? Absolutely. Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is one of the most aggressive GMs in the game and there is no reason to believe this trade deadline will be any different. Acuña and Strider are done for the season and reinforcements are needed. The story goes that Anthopoulos will update his squad this summer.

The biggest difference between this year’s Acuña (and Strider) injury and the 2021 injury is timing. In 2021, Acuña tore his anterior cruciate ligament on July 10, three weeks before the trade deadline. Anthopoulos moved quickly to bolster his outfield because the approaching deadline called for quick action, and that led him to Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler. Those were A+ moves.

This year, Acuña tore his anterior cruciate ligament on May 26. The trade deadline is still weeks away and the trade market has not yet taken shape. Anthopoulos can be patient, let the market develop, see how his internal options perform (not good, so far), and then act. It hasn’t happened yet, but it will happen. There is simply no way Anthopoulos would let the deadline pass without seeking help.

The schedule does not favor the Braves. They will begin a three-game series with the Orioles in Baltimore on Tuesday, and next weekend they will be in New York to play the Yankees. The toughest stretch of Atlanta’s interleague schedule comes as they are trying to get their season back on track. But that’s baseball. There are no shortcuts.

Anthopoulos will get help from his team before the trade deadline, I’m sure, and the NL wild card race isn’t exactly a challenge. Atlanta already has a good lead and time to figure things out. Olson and Riley (and Albies, Harris, and others)? Eh, there are red flags there, although it’s premature to dismiss them 63 games into the season. They need to turn things around, especially with Acuña and Strider out. It’s hard to see Atlanta doing well without these two contributing significantly.

“Keep working,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said Sunday (via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “Keep fighting, that’s what we do… Excited to go out there and play.”