Agent’s Take: Potential Trevor Lawrence contract compromise that could benefit Jaguars and 2021 No. 1 pick

Jacksonville Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke called Trevor Lawrence the team’s longtime quarterback in late January and also said a contract extension would be made at the right time. The right time could be any time before the Jaguars open training camp in late July while negotiations are ongoing. That would be ideal, according to Lawrence, the 2021 first overall pick.

Lawrence is under contract for two more seasons worth $31,341,293 because the Jaguars exercised a $25.664 million fully guaranteed fifth-year option on him for 2025. He is scheduled to earn $5,677,293 in 2024 with a salary cap of $11,707,018.

Lawrence certainly has his sights set on the top of the NFL salary scale market, given how quarterbacks drafted first overall who signed contract extensions with two years remaining on rookie contracts have been treated in recent years. Kyler Murray, the first overall pick in 2019, signed a five-year, $230.5 million contract extension (worth up to $238 million via salary escalators), averaging $46 .1 million per year, with the Arizona Cardinals in July 2022 at the start of training camp to become the NFL second highest paid player. Murray, the 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, was performing poorly in the only playoff game of his professional career, a lopsided loss to the eventual Super Bowl LVI champion Los Angeles Rams when he signed his extension.

The second highest-paid player in the league is Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff. He received a four-year extension worth $212 million (worth up to $216 million via salary escalators), averaging $53 million per year. Goff’s agreement contains $170,611,832 in guarantees, where $113,611,832 was fully guaranteed at signing. The $113,611,832 includes an NFL-record $73 million signing bonus.

Joe Burrow, the first overall pick in 2020, jumped to the top of the NFL salary hierarchy when he signed a five-year extension worth $275 million, averaging $55 million per year, with the Cincinnati Bengals in September last, just before the start of the 2023 regular season. Burrow’s deal is worth up to $281.25 million, thanks to $1.25 million in annual incentives in the extension years (2025 to 2029). He has $219.01 million in salary guarantees, $146.51 million of which was fully guaranteed at signing.

Burrow has put himself in the league’s best quarterback conversation with his consistent play in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. For example, he led the NFL with a 70.4 completion percentage while throwing for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns to post a passer rating of 108.3 in 2021. The Bengals ended a 31-year postseason win drought before losing to the Rams in Super Bowl LVI. He followed that up in 2022, throwing for 4,475 yards with a career-high 35 touchdown passes. The five playoff wins in those two seasons with Burrow under center were as many as the Bengals had in their first 52 seasons.

Burrow replaced 2020 first-round pick Justin Herbert as the NFL’s highest-paid player. Herbert, the 2020 sixth overall pick, signed a five-year, $262.5 million extension (worth up to $265 million thanks to salary escalators), averaging $52.5 million per year, last July, when the training camp opened.

Herbert’s deal has $193,738,375 in guarantees, of which $133,738,375 is fully guaranteed at signing. The total amount that can be guaranteed is US$218,738,375. That’s because $25 million of Herbert’s $47 million non-guaranteed base salary in 2028 is guaranteed in the event of an injury on the third day of the 2026 league year (mid-March 2026). The $25 million will be fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2027 league year (mid-March 2027).

Herbert is arguably the league’s most prolific passer early in his career. He threw for a rookie-record 31 touchdowns and 4,336 yards (second most by a rookie) in 2020 to earn NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Herbert’s 14,089 passing yards are the most during an NFL quarterback’s first three seasons and his 94 touchdown passes are the second-most during his first three years.

Putting Lawrence in this salary stratosphere would exceed $53 million per year at minimum and potentially more than $55 million per year over a five-year extension. Outside of Goff, existing members of the $50 million-a-year club have signed five-year deals or five-year extensions. The Jaguars would be guaranteeing a minimum of $200 million for Lawrence, where around $150 million would be fully guaranteed at signing.

It would be understandable if the Jaguars were hesitant to make that kind of commitment because Lawrence, who turns 25 in October, hasn’t been as talented as Burrow or Herbert in his three NFL seasons. Lawrence regressed last season after turning a corner in 2022, when he completed 66.3% of his passes for 4,113 yards (ninth in the NFL) with 25 touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) and eight interceptions for a 95.2 passer rating ( eighth in the NFL). The Jaguars won the AFC South with a 9-8 record before erasing a 27-point halftime deficit during a 31-30 victory over the Chargers (and Herbert) in an AFC wild-card playoff game.

Lawrence’s passer rating dropped to 88.5 and his interceptions increased to 14 in 2023. The 14 interceptions were tied for fourth most last season. The Jaguars imploded down the stretch, losing five of their last six games and missing the playoffs after controlling the AFC South with an 8-3 record. Lawrence battled a series of injuries last season (knee in Week 6, ankle in Week 13, concussion in Week 15 and shoulder in Week 16) but missed just one game.

Ball security has been Lawrence’s Achilles heel. He had 60 career turnovers (39 interceptions and 21 lost fumbles) in his three NFL seasons.

A deal for the parties could follow in the footsteps of another first overall pick when he extended his rookie contract with two years remaining. Matthew Stafford, the first overall pick in 2009, signed a three-year extension worth $53 million, averaging $17,666,667 per year, in 2013. The deal made Stafford the sixth-highest-paid player in the world. NFL upon signing.

There are some parallels with Lawrence and Stafford early in their careers. Stafford was coming off a 2012 season that didn’t live up to his 2011 campaign, in which he threw for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdown passes. Although Stafford set an NFL record with 727 pass attempts and was second in the league with 4,967 yards, he threw just 20 touchdown passes in 2012. His passer rating also fell from 97.2 (fifth in the NFL) to 79.8 (22nd in the NFL). ) and his completion percentage dropped from 63.4% to 59.8%, which was a career high at the time. Additionally, the Lions have lost their last eight games to post a 4-12 record, with 21 of 22 starters returning from a 2011 playoff team.

Becoming the league’s sixth-highest-paid player in a three-year extension would put Lawrence between the $51 million per year Jalen Hurts received in a five-year extension from the Philadelphia Eagles last April and the $46,338,889 per year in the nine renegotiated Patrick Mahomes. One-year contract with the Kansas City Chiefs. New money was not added to the deal Mahomes signed at the start of last season, as he still had eight years left on his contract. He is still under contract through the 2031 season. Money has been redistributed in recent years, so his contract is no longer extremely overloaded.

A modernized version of Stafford’s three-year extension would have between $80 million and $85 million fully guaranteed at signing. Global guarantees would be in the range of US$125 million to US$130 million. Lawrence’s overall guarantees would fall short of the $146.51 million, $135 million and $133,738,375 that Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Herbert have under their respective contracts.

The short-term deal would give Lawrence a level of security he doesn’t currently have. He would also be able to reap the benefits of changing market conditions at age 28 in 2028, his contract year, with a true breakout season over the next four years.

Realistically, there is probably a better chance of the Jaguars giving in to Lawrence’s demands, where he becomes the NFL’s second-highest-paid player, if not the highest-paid player, on a five-year extension before the start of the regular season, than signing him to a three-year contract. year extension. The Jaguars don’t have a rich quarterback history in their 30-year existence. The closest thing to a franchise quarterback was Mark Brunell, who started Jacksonville’s first eight NFL seasons (1995-2002). None of Jacksonville’s quarterbacks possessed Lawrence’s talent.

Generally, the longer a team waits to sign a Pro Bowl-caliber player, the more expensive it costs. That would be the case for Lawrence in 2025 if he has a bounce-back 2024 season. The Jaguars would likely face the prospect of paying Lawrence $60 million per year or more next year, provided he has a true breakout season in 2024.