The 5 big political events to watch this summer

The 2024 election cycle is heating up with summer about to officially begin and a handful of important political events to watch quickly approaching.

The summer will see both President Biden and former President Trump formally become their respective parties’ nominees for the White House; the first criminal conviction of a former commander in chief; and the first debate between Biden and Trump since 2020.

Here are five political events to watch this summer:

Presidential debates

After months of uncertainty over whether Biden and Trump would actually participate in the traditional quadrennial debates that have been a mainstay of presidential elections for nearly 50 years, the candidates quickly agreed to terms for two debates that would take place this summer.

The Commission on Presidential Debates, which has hosted these events every election year since 1988, had already scheduled three debates for the fall, as usual. But the Biden and Trump campaigns essentially marginalized the Commission quickly last month by agreeing to two separate debates to be held in June and September.

The first will be held in less than two weeks, on June 27th, on CNN, in Atlanta. ABC will present the second on September 10.

The events will be the first time Biden and Trump have met to debate the issues since they opposed each other four years ago. That year included the infamous first debate that went off the rails when Trump regularly interrupted Biden and moderator Chris Wallace.

A vice-presidential debate could also happen, but the logistics still need to be worked out. sorted out, with the Biden campaign accepting an offer from CBS to host it and the Trump campaign accepting an offer from Fox News. The campaigns also differed on the possibility of holding additional debates.

Regardless, debates are regularly memorable parts of an election and will happen earlier than ever in the election calendar.

Trump and Hunter Biden sentences

Another unprecedented aspect of the 2024 race is that one of the two leading candidates is the first former president and presumptive major party nominee to be convicted of a crime.

Trump was condemned in the first of four criminal trials he faces after a New York jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. The case concerned payments that the jury determined Trump made to try to cover up alleged affairs he had before the 2016 election.

He is scheduled to be condemned on July 11, just four days before the start of the Republican National Convention, where he will officially become the GOP nominee. While Trump is unlikely to receive a harsh sentence as a first-time offender convicted of a low-level crime, the sentence is at the judge’s discretion and could include incarceration.

While the other cases may not go to trial before Election Day, Democrats will try to leverage Trump’s conviction to demonstrate that he is unfit for office.

At the same time, Trump’s allies may try to muddy the waters with President Biden’s son, Hunter, having been condemned on Tuesday on three felony gun charges. Hunter Biden is the first son of a sitting president to be convicted of a crime and will likely be sentenced this summer as well.

The president is not involved in the case against Hunter, and the allegations against him and Trump are quite different, but Republicans wanted using Hunter’s legal challenges, including the tax case against him set to go to trial in September, to paint Biden’s family as untrustworthy.

Naming conventions

Presidential nominating conventions are typically the height of pomp and circumstance for the major parties, a multi-day gathering that features the parties’ top leaders.

By tradition, the Republican Party, as the party that does not hold the presidency, will host its convention first, from July 15th to 18th, and the Democrats next, from August 19th to 22nd. habitual.

Republican convention organizers are reportedly planning for the possibility that Trump will not be able to attend the convention, in part due to his sentencing being handed down four days earlier. NBC reported that preparations are underway for Trump to accept the nomination in Milwaukee or at his Mar-a-Lago estate, although a Trump campaign adviser told the news outlet that convention planning included only Trump’s personal acceptance of the nomination. appointment.

Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has been placed in a difficult situation, with Biden potentially unable to attend the vote in Ohio due to the state’s Aug. 7 certification deadline. With the Ohio Legislature still yet to address the issue, the DNC plans virtually name Biden in roll call vote before convention.

Candidates have also historically seen a slight increase in polls following their conventions, which could give either candidate a boost, at least temporarily.

Main Congressional primaries

Although the presidential primaries have concluded, states across the country will be holding notable primaries for key congressional races throughout the summer.

Two of the most significant primaries will take place over the next two weeks, with incumbents trying to block well-funded challengers from winning their seats.

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, is running for the nomination Tuesday against state Sen. John McGuire. Good is among the most conservative members of the House, but Trump supported McGuire, in part because Good originally supported Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) for president before supporting Trump.

A week later in New York, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman will try to fend off a challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer for his House seat in a race that has become a proxy battle between moderates and progressives.

At the end of the summer, the confrontations will be defined for the main Senate disputes that will determine which party controls the body. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Republican Kari Lake are likely to win their parties’ nominations in Arizona in late July, and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R- Mich.) ) will likely become Michigan’s Senate nominee during the state’s August primary.

An early surprise

Historically, there have been some unexpected developments in presidential races that have shaken up the race before elections, even in elections less unprecedented than this one. Polls continue to show that 2024 will likely be a close race despite everything that has happened so far, but a surprise affecting one or both candidates could certainly change the situation.

This type of development has historically been referred to as an “October surprise” that shakes up elections just weeks before voters go to the polls, but of course one could happen sooner.

Biden and Trump are the two oldest presumptive major party candidates in U.S. history, and health events that require one or both candidates to drop out of the race continue to be at least somewhat more likely than they are for most. of others who have run for president before.

Wars are already underway in Ukraine and Israel, which the US is helping, but a broader confrontation, arising from these conflicts or elsewhere, involving US forces more directly, could divert national attention from the main political discussions. current.

However, another surprise that is not at all predicted – something like the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA in March 2020 – could end up dominating the race.