Aaron Judge’s 50-game rampage: Breaking down Yankees slugger’s elite run that has him challenging 2022 HR pace

At 50-24, the New York Yankees have the best record in baseball and three more wins than any other team, and they did it with a complete game. The Yankees are allowing 3.38 runs per game, the fewest in baseball and 0.14 runs better than any other team. They are scoring 5.05 runs per game, second only to the Baltimore Orioles (5.13). His 124-plus run differential is the best in MLB.

Anthony Volpe, Alex Verdugo and others contributed to the offensive attack, but the stars of the show are obviously Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Soto has been everything the Yankees hoped he would be, slashing .315/.433/.592 with 18 home runs. He is on pace for a career-high 39 homers in his free agent year. The Yankees really needed an impactful left-handed bat and Soto delivered.

The problem is, Soto isn’t even the Yankees’ best hitter. He is the second best hitter in baseball and the second best hitter on his own team. Here is the MLB OPS+ leaderboard:

1. Aaron Judge: 210 OPS+
2. João Soto: 189 OPS+
3. Marcelo Ozuna: 181 OPS+
4. Kyle Tucker: 178 OPS+
5. Shohei Ohtani: 174 OPS+

During his record 62 home run season in 2022, Judge had a… 210 OPS+. Now, there’s a big difference between having a 210 OPS+ on June 17th and having a 210 OPS+ in 162 full games, but Judge isn’t doing anything we haven’t seen him do before. Almost exactly that too. Judge hit .311/.425/.686 in 2022. In 2024, he has a .299/.425/.686 line. Strange.

The issue is that Judge hasn’t been dominant since Opening Day. He started the season so slowly that he was booed on bobblehead day on April 20th.. His slash line bottomed out at .174/.308/.337 two days later. In the 50 games since then, Judge has had one of the greatest hitting streaks in recent memory: .360/.480/.854 with 17 doubles and 23 home runs.

Judge’s 50-game run began on April 23. Only Alec Bohm has more doubles (21) since then. Otherwise, Judge leads the league in everything else. To know:

The difference between No. 1 and No. 2 in OPS is the same as the difference between No. 2 and No. 70. The batting gaps and extra-base hits are what stand out the most to me. Judge has been the best power hitter in the game since his rookie season in 2017, but this is the best power stretch of his career, including 2022. This is one of the greatest power hitters of all time at the top of his game.

“Considering the month of April where he was down around .200, getting to this is just further proof of the type of run he’s been on.” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said last week when Judge’s batting average surpassed .300. “… I’m trying not to take it for granted. But I mean, it’s really fun to witness and watch what he’s doing every night. It’s really special.”

Here’s more about Judge’s otherworldly 50-game streak and what his outlook is for the rest of the season.

The last 50 games extend this dominance

Truth be told, it isn’t what unusual for a player to hit .360 over a 50-game span. It’s impressive, sure, but not rare. Mookie Betts hit .408 in 50 games from June 29 to August 30. Arraez flirted with .400 in 50 games last year as well. Soto, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Corey Seager and others have hit over .360 in 50 games at some point since 2021.

The same goes for his .480 on-base percentage. That’s not even Judge’s best through 50 games. He had a .511 OBP from July 23 to September 18, 2022. Soto had a .555 OBP for a 50-game stretch in 2021. Betts, Ohtani and Bryce Harper are among the others who posted an OBP of .480 or better , in 50 games at some point over the last four seasons.

This century, only five players other than Judge (eight instances) have hit at least .850 over a 50-game span, and only 10 others (16 instances) have had a 1.300 OPS over a 50-game span.

Bonds in the early 2000s was the most devastating hitter the game has ever seen. Otherwise, hitting .850 and OPSing 1.300 over a 50-game span is something only the game’s true elite hitters can accomplish when they’re at the top of their game. Mike Trout never did that. Albert Pujols never did that. Miguel Cabrera never did that. Judge is doing this. It’s rarefied air.

Home run pace

With 26 home runs in 74 team games, Judge is on pace to hit 57 home runs this season, fewer than his 62 home runs in 2022 but still one of the top 20 home runs of a season of all time. It would be the seventh-most home runs in a single season in American League history. In 74 team games in 2022, Judge had 28 home runs, which is just two more than his current position. He is near.

The folks at Newsday saved me the trouble and made a chart comparing Judge’s 2024 home run pace to his 2022 pace:

That’s the kind of thing that can change with a big series. If Judge can hit four homers in a three-game span like he did from May 31 to June 2, he’ll be ahead of his 2022 pace and we’ll be talking about him possibly breaking his own AL single-season home run record. Just the fact that he’s reasonably close to his 2022 pace despite this season’s slow start is truly remarkable.

Extra-base hit rate

Chasing the AL single-season home run record is boring. We’ve been there, done that. Hardcore baseball nerds are looking at Judge’s extra-base hit total and wondering if he will achieve that record or simply break 100 for the season. Only 15 times has a player recorded 100 extra-base hits in a seasonand this has happened only six times since 1948.

The all-time record is Babe Ruth’s 119 extra-base hits in 1921. Here are the six players with 100 extra-base hits in a season since 1948:

Give Belle bonus points for reaching 100 extra-base hits in the strike-shortened 144-game season in 1995. Everyone else did it in a full 162-game season. There have been some dangers in this century. Chris Davis had 96 extra-base hits in 2013, Derrek Lee had 99 in 2005 and Pujols had 99 in 2004. The MLB leader averaged 88 extra-base hits from 2014-23 (excluding 2020).

Judge has 49 extra-base hits — 22 doubles, one triple, 26 homers — in 74 team games, which puts him on pace for 107 extra-base hits on the season. That would tie Bonds for the third-highest total in baseball history, behind Ruth (119 in 1921) and Lou Gehrig (117 in 1927). Judge needs 51 extra bases in New York’s last 88 games to reach 100 for the season. It’s doable.

The problem for Judge here, and also with a possible chase of his own AL single-season home run record, is that teams are going to stop throwing to him. It happened in late 2022 and will happen again this year, even with Soto in the lineup. Once the postseason races heat up, teams won’t let Judge win them. They will take chances with Stanton, Verdugo and everyone else.

Furthermore, the judge will cool down. It’s inevitable. He’s a great hitter, but he’s not a true .854 SLG or 1.334 OPS gifted hitter. No one is. This is him at his peak, not at a sustainable level. Judge putting 1,000 OPS for the rest of 2024 wouldn’t be a surprise, but 1,300 OPS? No. As it stands, their last 50 games have been one of the most dominant 50-game stretches in recent memory.