Just over half of Black voters back Joe Biden in two swing states: Poll

Most Black voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan say they would vote for President Biden in a hypothetical general election contest, but a significant share of 2020 Biden voters support third-party candidates or say they are undecided, according to a poll released Sunday.

O USA TODAY/Suffolk University Pollsheld June 9-13, includes 500 black voters in Pennsylvania and 500 black voters in Michigan – two states considered essential to winning the presidency in November.

In both states, Biden sees his support decline from 2020 onwards. In Pennsylvania, 56.2% of black voters surveyed say they would vote for Biden today, a drop of 20 percentage points compared to those who say they voted for him in 2020 . In Michigan, 54.4% of black voters surveyed say they support Biden, a drop of 22 percentage points compared to those who say they voted for him in 2020.

Exit polls showed that 92 percent of Black voters supported Biden in 2020, but 76 percent of respondents in the new poll told pollsters they voted for Biden in 2020.

Support for Trump increased slightly from 2020, with 10.8% supporting him in Pennsylvania, compared to about 8% in 2020, and 15.2% supporting him in Michigan, compared to 9 % in 2020.

In Pennsylvania, asked to choose between six presidential candidates, 16.4 percent of respondents support a third-party candidate: 7.6 percent support independent Cornel West, 7.4 percent support independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr ., 1 percent support Green Party candidate Jill Stein and 0.4 percent support Libertarian Chase Oliver.

In Michigan, the results are similar. Kennedy gets 8% support from black voters surveyed, West gets 6.2%, Stein gets 1%, and Oliver gets 0.2%.

Another 13.8% of black voters in both states say they are undecided.

David Paleologos, who runs the Suffolk Center for Political Research and led the poll, told USA Today that most voters put Biden as their first or second choice. In Michigan, for example, 54% of respondents support Biden, but another 45% put Biden as their second choice, he said.

In both states, black voters who support either independent candidate first are more likely to put Biden over Trump as their second choice.

Kennedy voters in Pennsylvania are more likely to choose Biden as their second choice over Trump, by 27% to 11%. In Michigan, they are more likely to choose Biden over Trump, by a margin of 48% to 13%.

Paleologos said, according to USA Today, that while there is an opportunity for Biden to win over some third-party voters, Biden faces the unique challenge of needing to maintain such a high level of support into 2020, while having little room to increase support. .

“Why would they vote in 2024 if they didn’t in 2020?” Paleologos asked, USA Today reported. “The people who are least connected and least involved are the ones who matter most in these swing states.”

The research arises both Trump and Biden increased their reach and messages aimed at black voters, especially black men, highlighting the political power the demographic will have in November.

In the recent poll, Trump’s support among black men is more than double that among black women. In Pennsylvania, 16% of black men surveyed support Trump, compared to 6% of black women. In Michigan, 22% of black men support Trump, compared to 9% of black women.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.