NFL Comeback Player of the Year best bets: Identifying top options amid new criteria

For players, fans and especially voters, one of the most intriguing prizes in the NFL distributes every season is the Comeback Player of the Year. Specifically, it was unclear – until recently – who exactly this award should go to. Most would consider this to mean a player coming back from injury, like Joe Burrow did when he won in 2021 after his torn ACL.

However, in recent years, the award has morphed into adding players who simply bounced back from periods of low quality during their careers, such as Geno Smith in 2022 and Joe Flacco last year. This prompted the Associated Press, which distributes the award, to recently sent some clarifications to voters. They say the award “is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity, overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that caused him to miss games in the previous season.”

Translation: They want voters to avoid rewarding returning players from simply ruining the joint on the field and focus more on players who have recovered from injuries (e.g., Bills safety Damar Hamlin, who was among the favorites this year past).

With this clarification in mind, let’s take a look at this year’s odds for Comeback Player of the Year. First, we will eliminate some players who fit the previous interpretation. Next, we’ll highlight some of the best bets.

All NFL Odds through DraftKings Sportsbook.

Players who can no longer qualify

If we now look at this through the lens of this AP clarification, we can actually eliminate a handful of players who are just looking for a career resurgence but have no injury-related history.

In particular, we can look at both Pittsburgh Steelers quarterbacks in Russell Wilson It is Justin Campos. Wilson currently has the fifth-best odds to win Comeback Player of the Year at +1200. But what exactly is Wilson coming back from? Sure, he missed the final two games of the year in 2023 as a member of the Denver Broncos, but that was for contractual reasons. In reality, Wilson is just trying to get his career back on track after a failed tenure in Denver.

In a somewhat similar vein, Fields (+3500) was cut by the Chicago Bears this offseason after securing the No. 1 overall pick, which turned out to be Caleb Williams. Fields missed four games last year but played in the final seven games of the regular season, so there’s no real story related to injuries from the previous first round. Fields is just trying to re-establish himself as a starter in the league, which doesn’t appear to be a qualification for CPOY in its new iteration.

Sam Darnold – which has the seventh-best odds of winning CPOY at +2,000 – also now appears to fall out of this category. Before this move, he would have been a worthwhile gamble as he could start the entire 2024 season in the middle of a loaded Minnesota Vikings offense as the franchise slowly develops first-round pick JJ McCarthy. However, he does not have any injuries or illnesses that he is coming back from. Darnold, who was a backup in San Francisco last year, has simply fallen out of favor in terms of finding a starting job in the league in recent seasons.

Bryce Young is another who may no longer qualify. The first overall pick is +4000 to win the award, but then again, what is he coming back from other than the struggles during his rookie season? Young started all 16 games played and completed 59.8% of his passes with a passer rating of 73.7. If he turned things around in his sophomore campaign, it would be a fantastic development for the Carolina Panthers, but not one that would put him on a trajectory to win this award.

In the previous permutations, Drew Lock would have been a sneaky underdog to bet at +10,000, but the New York Giants quarterback falls into a similar circumstance to Darnold, even if he surpasses Daniel Jones as the starter.

Best bets for CPOY

The favorite: New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the current favorite at +130. The four times NFL MVP logged just four snaps last season before suffering a torn Achilles tendon, so he certainly qualifies as a candidate under these clarified parameters. It’s also worth noting that he has strong weapons around him in wideout Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall, while the Jets also spent the offseason addressing their key needs along the offensive line, adding a trio of career-caliber tackles. initial.

If Rodgers can get back to being 80% of his pre-injury self, he should be able to put New York in position to end their playoff drought and put themselves in contention for CPOY, if not run away with the award. .

Burrow’s unlikely move: On the surface, Burrow, who suffered a season-ending wrist injury in November, would be an ideal candidate for CPOY and currently has the second-best odds to win the award at +240, behind only Rodgers. However, it is worth noting that Burrow has already won this award in 2021. There is precedent for a player to win CPOY twice like quarterback Chad Pennington did in 2006 with the Jets and 2008 with the Dolphins, but this is the only case where this has occurred. Again, it’s not impossible, but I think the bar will be higher for Burrow to win this award twice, especially considering the rather complicated field around him. And if we need a next-level season for Burrow to win this award, I’d rather just bet he’ll win MVP at +900.

Best bet: Kirk Cousins ​​is in a similar situation to Rodgers as he also looks to recover from a torn Achilles tendon. However, the former Vikings QB suffered an injury in late October, so he is about two months behind Rodgers in terms of recovery time. That said, I love the situation he’s in right now with the Atlanta Falcons and is my best bet for this award as he has the third-highest odds at +500.

Atlanta has plenty of weapons at Cousins’ disposal, including wideouts Drake London and Darnell Mooney, along with tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Bijan Robinson. He also has a tremendous offensive line in front of him. Combine Cousins’ talent and those weapons with new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who comes to Atlanta after five seasons coaching under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, and this offense could be highly successful.

The Falcons also have the easiest schedule in the entire league, for Sharp football analysiswhich should allow Cousins ​​to rack up wins and possibly a division crown.

Long shot: Don’t sleep on Justin Herbert, who is +3,000 to win CPOY. The Chargers quarterback missed the final month of the regular season after being placed on injured reserve and undergoing surgery on the index finger of his throwing hand. This injury now puts him under consideration for the award, and I expect a hyper-efficient year from him under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. We’ve already seen Herbert’s talent on full display and if Harbaugh can channel it to produce wins in Los Angeles, he could become the 2024 Comeback Player of the Year.