Christian Smith
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s rising profile is raising the question of whether he could appear in a debate with President Biden and Donald Trump — and what impact that could have on the presidential race.
It remains unclear whether Kennedy, who has attended scattered polls throughout his candidacy, will be able to qualify for a televised forum, as the independent candidate has not yet collected enough signatures for a majority of state ballots.
But discontent with the standard-bearers of both parties has opened up a potential third choice, especially one with access to considerable money, creating a conflict between the three polarizing figures are a possibility.
“If Bobby can consistently vote at 15 percent or better from now on [until] in the fall, coupled with increased access to the ballot box, he has a legitimate shot at making it to the debate stage,” a Kennedy ally familiar with the campaign’s messaging strategy told The Hill.
The first presidential debate on the committee calendar is scheduled for September 16 in Texas, followed by a vice-presidential screening on September 25 in Pennsylvania. Two more productions are scheduled for October in Virginia and Utah.
Kennedy made it clear he wanted to enter the debate Action. He intends to face Biden and Trump and called for an open exchange of ideas and criticism of existing policies before the American public. He wants voters to imagine a November election that goes beyond a grim rematch between two parties.
“I should have a place in these debates,” Kennedy said in an appearance on Fox News this week. “There are all these really existential questions and none of them can really deal with them.”
“We are in more toxic polarization and division than at any time since the American Civil War,” he said.
As the drama escalates, Biden and Trump have been unenthusiastic about the idea of clashing with Kennedy, who they both view as a threat regardless of the host or debate schedule.
On the one hand, it could simply elevate the third-party candidate, as Trump and Biden vote side by side. Kennedy has family name recognition, but is not as well-known as the current or former president, who enjoy the benefits of each having occupied the White House.
At this point in the race, it’s also unclear which campaign he could shake up most drastically. Biden and Trump compete for the support of covered voters who are frustrated with Washington politics. This includes independents, who famously swing both ways and with whom Kennedy sought to identify this cycle.
Aaron Kall, who serves as director of debate at the University of Michigan, said Kennedy could also throw another “wild card” onto the stage, as Biden and Trump want to draw attention and avoid errors amid questions about his age and mental fitness.
For now, Democrats and Republicans still view Kennedy as an unlikely candidate, although each is paying more attention to his campaign than in the past. His media circuit primarily consists of podcasts and alternative programs with select appearances on cable news. Appearing in front of a national audience in contrast to his two competitors could present him in front of a much wider audience.
Still, there is a fundamental question about whether Biden and Trump will even debate each other. Although Trump has he said he would debate Biden “anytime, anywhere, anywhere,” the former president skipped every Republican primary debate held this cycle, a move criticized by many of his former competitors and by the Biden campaign. There’s no guarantee he won’t do it again.
The Biden team, however, said it is “happy” to debate Trump, perhaps going further than some of its most hesitant comments about the outlook in recent months.
Trump, while in New York this week for his hush money trial, claimed he “knows nothing” about Kennedy, the candidate he called in a recent Truth Social post “a radical left liberal who was appointed to help the corrupt Joe Biden.”
“Look, RFK has very low polls. He is not a serious candidate,” Trump said in Manhattanwhen asked whether or not he would debate the independent.
“They say he hurts Biden – I don’t know who he hurts, he could hurt me, I don’t know. But he has very low numbers, certainly not numbers he can debate with. And he needs to get his numbers up a lot before he’s credible,” Trump added.
Some strategists believe Biden has an advantage over his two rivals, given Trump’s continued legal conflicts and questions about Kennedy’s viability.
“I think President Biden will clearly come out the winner if all three of them take the stage,” said Democratic strategist Kristen Hawn, as New voting suggests that Kennedy’s offer could cause more harm to Trump.
Hawn also noted that the timeline for Trump’s criminal trials is still up in the air and that legal obligations could complicate plans for a debate — or simply draw more attention to them.
Some of Kennedy’s allies said that regardless of his troubles with the law, Trump might still want to take the stage if given the chance. “He’s open to mixing things up,” said the source familiar with the Kennedy campaign. “He’s more than willing to debate Bobby.”
Biden supporters, including within the Democratic National Committee, however, may be much less willing to advise the sitting president to debate Kennedy. Democrats have made clear they see him as someone who spreads conspiracy theories about vaccines and whose aligned super PAC takes money from Trump donors.
“The DNC will do everything they can to deny Bobby a podium,” the pro-Kennedy source speculated.
Kennedy and the Democratic Party apparatus have been at odds for much of this year, with Kennedy separating them for being biased toward Biden and committee staffers criticizing his candidacy as a way to elevate Trump and constructing a narrative that he is a “spoiler”.
“The DNC orchestrated a remarkably skewed Democratic primary, resulting in the emergence of Biden as its nominee. Now, they are stuck with Biden, who cannot beat Trump,” Kennedy wrote on X on Friday. “Can anyone make this make sense?”
Kennedy called a press conference Wednesday in New York City to try to flip Biden’s script, claiming that the president cannot beat Trump in a three-way contest and that he is, in from him own estimate, the real “spoiler” – a point he would likely address in a debate setting.
Democrats were quick to call Kennedy’s briefing a mere gimmick to divert focus from their own long-term effort.
“Nothing more than a media stunt designed to distract from the fact that he has no path to getting the 270 electoral college votes needed to win,” said Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist.
“As he cannot win, his candidacy will only serve to take votes from other candidates. And no feat will change that,” Gordon said. “Staying in a race you have no path to winning is the definition of a spoiler.”
Kall, the presidential debate scholar, expressed skepticism about Kennedy’s qualifications through the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), the body that has sponsored all general election presidential debates for decades. One of the CPD requirementsalong with a 15 percent threshold in qualified polls, is that a given candidate’s name must appear on enough state ballots to have “at least a mathematical chance of securing an Electoral College majority” in 2024. Critics say this may be difficult for Kennedy.
The Trump campaign has its own concerns about the process. Frustrated with CPD’s September start date, he this week called on other networks to bypass the system and host debates outside that schedule.
“If we go back to the really old setup where there are just different networks [hosting debates] and they would have the ability to have their own criteria,” Kall said, so Kennedy participation could be more likely – although Trump and Biden may have to negotiate.
Whether or not Kennedy qualifies for the stage, the current and former presidents have “a lot more to gain from the debate” than not, said Tammy Vigil, a media science professor at Boston University who focuses on political campaigns.
“He would have to really increase support,” Vigil said of Kennedy. “I don’t think it’s very likely, although it would be very interesting to see that debate.”
