Christian Smith
(The hill) – Fewer Black Americans are certain they will vote in this year’s election than in the 2020 election, according to a new Washington Post/Ipsos survey.
Only 62 percent of black voters said they were “absolutely certain” that they would vote in the November elections, a decrease of 12 points compared to June 2020, when 74 percent said the same.
The drop in voter interest could spell trouble for President Joe Biden. Black voters are a critical base for Democrats. In 2020, they helped Biden secure the White House.
But many Black voters have been increasingly disappointed with the Biden-Harris administration since 2020.
Although Biden promised a series of reforms to criminal justice, police accountability and voting rights during his campaign, few changes have been made since taking office.
Young black voters have seen the steepest drop in voter interest this year. Just 41 percent of Black voters ages 18 to 39 said they would vote in November.
Young black voters have been frustrated with the president’s stance on the Gaza crisis and the cost of inflation continues to be a top issue for all voters.
The poll also showed a clear gender divide among voters.
Just 39 percent of Black women ages 18 to 39 will vote this year, a sharp decline from 69 percent in 2020.
The Biden-Harris re-election campaign was not immediately available to The Hill’s request for comment.
Still, Biden remains the favorable choice over former President Donald Trump. The Post-Ipsos poll found that 74% of registered Black voters say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for Biden, compared to just 14% who said they would vote for Trump.
This would represent a significant increase in support for Trump, who has steadily won the support of black voters since 2016, when he won just 8% of the vote from black voters.
But participation is not guaranteed.
Just 51 percent of Trump supporters said they would definitely vote in November, while 78 percent of those who planned to vote for Biden said they would definitely vote.
Black voters generally have mixed opinions about Biden. Although 38 percent say his policies have helped black people; nearly half say his policies made no difference. Eleven percent say her policies have harmed black people.
Black voters are more aligned in their views on Trump’s policies, which 55% said hurt black people.
Fifty-five percent of black voters trust Biden to address racism, compared to just 6 percent who trust Trump. Fifty-four percent trust Biden on the abortion issue, while just 9 percent trust Trump. Fifty percent trust Biden on the economy, compared to just 16 percent who trust Trump.
Although black voters’ voting certainty has declined somewhat, more black Americans approve of Biden than the general public.
Sixty-two percent of Black Americans approve of Biden’s job performance — down from 66 percent last year and 70 percent in 2022 — while only about 40 percent of the general public approves.
The survey was conducted April 9-16 among 1,331 non-Hispanic black adults ages 18 and older. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
