Christian Smith
Rarely is a presidential candidate on his way to the White House, with unexpected developments known to derail momentum.
Although President Biden and former President Trump easily won the delegates needed to secure their respective parties’ nominations, and the race went largely as predicted, a game-changing situation – or two – could turn the race around. in the six months before the November elections.
Several issues are already on the boil, from the global crises that the White House is managing to Trump’s legal problems.
Here are five possible twists that could shake up the presidential race in the coming months.
Health concerns force Biden, Trump to drop out of race
Biden, 81, and Trump, who will be 78 on Election Day, are the two presumptive oldest major party candidates in US history.
Although murmurs among commentators about the parties choosing another candidate have largely calmed down, some health event that sidelined one or both candidates before November does not seem inconceivable.
Both candidates have emphasized their ability to serve as president amid questions about their physical and mental health.
In February, Biden’s doctor wrote after a physical examination of the president that he was “fit for service” and has no new health problems.
Trump’s doctor released a letter in November, saying he was in “excellent health,” his labs were within “normal health limits” and his cognitive exams were “exceptional.” But the letter was considerably vague and did not provide specific details about what the labs showed.
Neither has had a significant, publicly diagnosed health problem, but a major medical event remains a possibility for both men, as even younger presidents have experienced in the past.
A wider international conflict breaks out
International turmoil is already the backdrop of the presidential race, with two major conflicts underway. And although US troops are not directly involved in any of the conflicts, the political impact is visible.
The Biden administration had been pushing congressional Republicans to approve additional financial support for Ukraine in its war with Russia for months before the aid package approved last month.
At the same time, Biden has faced a complicated situation with the war in the Middle East, which has exacerbated tensions within his coalition since 2020. Protests have erupted on university campuses in recent weeks in opposition to continued financial aid to Israel.
Critics also organized an effort to vote “noncommittally” as a protest against Biden in the Democratic primary.
So far, both conflicts have not directly attracted the US. But if they spread – if Russia attacks a NATO country, for example, or if Iran becomes more involved in the Israel-Hamas war – direct military involvement may be considered necessary.
This type of development could make or break Biden’s campaign, depending on the public’s view of the conflict.
RFK Jr. or other third-party candidates gain more traction
Although third-party candidates in the race mostly polled in the single digits, both major parties recently attacked independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who at times polled just over 10 percent.
The Democratic National Committee has formed a team to address independent and third-party candidates running this year. Trump also recently turned his attention to Kennedycalling him a “Democrat plant” and “not a serious candidate.”
Even with Kennedy sometimes breaking double digits, he would still need to improve to potentially make it to the debate stage in the fall. If it does, the first three-person general election debate in three decades could add another element of unpredictability.
In addition to Kennedy, Cornel West is running as an independent and Jill Stein appears likely to be nominated again by the Green Party. Still, both currently receive no more than 1 or 2 percent support in polls.
A sudden surge in one or more of these candidates could change the outlook of the race. While all are longshots for the presidency, a rise by any of them could produce uncertain results.
The economy experiences a slowdown or recession
The economy is often a key issue in presidential election campaigns and polls show that the issue is one of voters’ main concerns this year.
Although unemployment has consistently remained at a historically low rate – below 4% – polls show Many Americans are pessimisticespecially in light of persistent inflation that has fallen significantly over the past year but remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Biden has tried to balance emphasizing his administration’s success in keeping unemployment low and recognizing that continually higher prices increase the cost of living. While the economy remains stable, this could be a viable strategy.
But if an economic downturn or recession were to occur, Biden would be in a considerably more difficult position trying to convince Americans of his economic message. On the other hand, a drop in inflation that allows the Fed to lower interest rates for the first time in months could spark the optimism the president needs.
Trump is convicted or acquitted in New York case
The most anticipated twist – within a few weeks – is the return of a verdict in the first criminal trial of a former president.
Trump’s trial over alleged hush payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels has been underway for a few weeks and could end before the start of summer. The trial could be the only one of the four cases Trump faces that takes place before Election Day.
If Trump is found innocent, he will probably declare victory and this proves that the accusations were politically motivated, as he claimed.
If Trump is convicted, it would be unprecedented, but the impacts are unclear. Polls have been mixed on whether a conviction in this case would significantly hurt Trump.
A poll found 57 percent of respondents consider accusations of silence serious, and the same amount say that Trump should not be president if he is convicted of a serious crime. Another poll found that those who said a conviction would make them reconsider supporting Trump overwhelmingly. I wouldn’t vote for Biden.
But even a small change, one way or another, can make a difference.
