Christian Smith
Speculation swirls around the role Nikki Haley will play in the run-up to November as she racks up primary votes against former President Trump months after dropping out of the presidential race.
Haley, who dropped out of the race in March, won 21.7 percent of the vote in Tuesday’s Indiana primary, the latest example of how she won a significant share of the vote against Trump despite no longer being a candidate.
The former UN ambassador’s vote totals in recent elections served as a warning sign for the former president and led to doubts about whether she will support him or stay out of the election entirely.
Haley ended her presidential bid in March, saying that being a private citizen is “privilege enough in and of itself.” Last month, Haley joined the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank, as its next Walter P. Stern president.
And despite losing to Trump this cycle, Republicans say she still has a bright future ahead of her.
“I think Nikki Haley is always looking to the horizon politically,” said Dave Wilson, a Republican strategist based in South Carolina. “She’s looking for that opportunity that she can grab and run with it as long as she can.”
Haley is scheduled to meet with about 100 donors next week in Charleston on Monday and Tuesday. The Wall Street Journal first reported news of the meetings, which are intended to serve as a “thank you” to donors who supported his presidential bid. Haley has no plans to support Trump.
But although Haley lost to Trump in the primaries, her success with Republican primary voters did not go unnoticed by her supporters. Haley notably won about 17 percent of the Republican primary vote in Pennsylvania and Arizona, respectively — two of the most important swing states in the country.
While she was still in the race, Haley frequently pointed to data that suggested 40 percent of Republican primary voters supported her over Trump, arguing that it was a sign of Trump’s vulnerability with the GOP primary electorate and older voters. moderate.
“What we’re seeing is that Haley voters are going to be a really crucial and critical voting bloc,” said Brittany Martinez, a Republican strategist. “I think there’s a lot at stake, and from what I understand, it really seems like neither the Trump nor Biden campaigns have tapped into that yet.”
Continued support for Haley in the recent Republican Party primaries has fueled speculation about her next move. Wilson said Haley’s votes are a sign of her staying power, but warned there are still questions about voters who voted for Haley despite not being in the race.
“The question I’m really starting to ask is whether she’s going to stay because of who she is or whether her staying power is there now because it’s someone other than Trump that these people are voting for,” he said. “We do not know. Is it a pro-Haley vote or an anti-Trump vote?”
“This should take into consideration what Nikki Haley hopes for her long-term political career,” Wilson said.
Trump supporters point out that Haley received support from Democratic primary voters and that when faced with a choice between Trump and Biden, Republican and conservative-leaning voters are unlikely to choose Biden.
“I don’t think courting Haley voters is the best use of her time and resources,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist. “In the fall, the Republican Party base will turn to Trump because it’s not like inflation and interest rates are going to get better and it’s not like the border is going to be closed any more by then.”
Trump echoed that sentiment during an interview with WGAL in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, this week.
“Well, that’s a very small number because she was campaigning, spending millions of dollars and getting it from the Democrats,” Trump said.
“All these people are going to come to me because, first of all, what is their choice? Biden, he is the worst president in the history of our country,” she continued. “They’re all coming at me. We already see that.”
Still, Haley is seen as an influential figure among suburban voters, especially suburban women, who have leaned Democratic in every election year since Trump’s first midterm election as president in 2018.
“That was her strength and we saw that again in Indiana,” O’Connell said. “Yes, it was an open primary. At the same time, however, this election will be decided by inches on the Electoral College map.”
In another sign of its continued relevance, Axios reported on Saturday that the Trump campaign is actively considering Haley as his running mate. The former UN ambassador has yet to give any indication that she would agree to follow the same path as Trump.
The final days of Haley’s campaign were marked by increased animosity between her and Trump. Haley wished Trump well in her comments announcing her exit from the race, but it is unclear whether the two would team up on the campaign trail. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who was also the target of Trump’s ire in the primaries, met with Trump late last month in Miami and the two promised to work together this cycle.
“If DeSantis has to rebuild his brand by staying close to Trump, what do you think that will do for Nikki Haley? Do you think waiting for Nikki Haley will improve her political brand in the future since she wants to run for president? The answer is absolutely no,” said a Republican Party strategist.
Other Republicans say Haley is a natural to campaign for Republicans at the polls this cycle, which could pay dividends in the future.
“If she’s not working on election races, there’s a problem,” Wilson said. “That’s where you generate the support from people that you’ll need four years from now.”
There’s also the factor of how a hypothetical Trump victory in November influences the future of Haley and other Republican stars.
“If Donald Trump wins in November, will that completely diminish his chances of anything in ’28?” Wilson said. “Because you have to keep in mind that if Trump wins, whoever is his vice president will be the natural favorite in 2028. He is term-limited. He can’t run again.”
Plus, there’s also a whole roster of younger Republicans with their sights set on 2028.
“You take a look at who’s next – Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley. These are three important names at the moment,” said Wilson.
“This is the latest generation of 70- and 80-somethings taking the lead in presidential politics,” Wilson said.
